2024 Handicaps

[Quevega]

Yes that would be tight on getting in for sa majeste with UK tax, nara going to be unlikely to get in the boodles then ain't she?

UK handicapper often puts juveniles up more than average, but it's in their hands - so who knows

[ComplyOrDie]

Michael purcell novices hurdle Thurles Feb 22.

There are still a few races Willie will use as prep for Cheltenham. That come after the coming weekend.
He could run in the listed race at Punchestown on Sunday if eligible.

I wouldn't be hanging my hat on anything coming from the Michael Purcell. I think the timing of the race is far from ideal for many of the horses that come from there.

I remember Five O'Clock being all the rage in the Martin Pipe in the build up after his win in the Michael Purcell and the same goes for Tin Soldier in the Coral Cup after his win in the race and whilst neither run bad races it just left the impression they were trained with the MIchael Purcell in mind rather than the festival.

I'm unsure on the Punchestown race, that would be of more interest, for sure.

[Quevega]

I wouldn't be hanging my hat on anything coming from the Michael Purcell. I think the timing of the race is far from ideal for many of the horses that come from there.

I remember Five O'Clock being all the rage in the Martin Pipe in the build up after his win in the Michael Purcell and the same goes for Tin Soldier in the Coral Cup after his win in the race and whilst neither run bad races it just left the impression they were trained with the MIchael Purcell in mind rather than the festival.

I'm unsure on the Punchestown race, that would be of more interest, for sure.

I only hang my hat on my coat rack at home.
It's an excellent trial for the Pipe.
at least 2 winners from it, a placed horse last year and a couple that went off Favourite.
No many trainers train a horse with the Michael Purcell in mind, especially Willie.

[FredFlintstone]

I wouldn't be hanging my hat on anything coming from the Michael Purcell. I think the timing of the race is far from ideal for many of the horses that come from there.

I remember Five O'Clock being all the rage in the Martin Pipe in the build up after his win in the Michael Purcell and the same goes for Tin Soldier in the Coral Cup after his win in the race and whilst neither run bad races it just left the impression they were trained with the MIchael Purcell in mind rather than the festival.

I'm unsure on the Punchestown race, that would be of more interest, for sure.

GE has a good record with festival handicappers running in the Thurles race. Blow by Blow & Champagne Classic both ran it it. I was hoping he'll run whats up darling in this years renewal

[ComplyOrDie]

GE has a good record with festival handicappers running in the Thurles race. Blow by Blow & Champagne Classic both ran it it. I was hoping he'll run whats up darling in this years renewal

Yeah, I'd be keen to see what Gordon runs, but Willie's tend not to show up too well either in this race or follow up at the festival, from what I can see.

[Quevega]

Yeah, I'd be keen to see what Gordon runs, but Willie's tend not to show up too well either in this race or follow up at the festival, from what I can see.

Are you suggesting Willie can't get a handicapper to run well at Cheltenham with a three week break ?
Cos he can win Championship races with less, and grade ones.

Mistergif (I get his price has gone which may be driving your opinion a little) may not run in the Purcell or even at the festival, and he may not win, but the three week break has nothing to do with it.
It's a very anecdotal view you've developed on this race

[Quevega]

GE has a good record with festival handicappers running in the Thurles race. Blow by Blow & Champagne Classic both ran it it. I was hoping he'll run whats up darling in this years renewal

Staffordshire Knot would be my guess. although that will be his third run

[ComplyOrDie]

Are you suggesting Willie can't get a handicapper to run well at Cheltenham with a three week break ?
Cos he can win Championship races with less, and grade ones.

Mistergif (I get his price has gone which may be driving your opinion a little) may not run in the Purcell or even at the festival, and he may not win, but the three week break has nothing to do with it.
It's a very anecdotal view you've developed on this race

Not suggesting that, merely pointing out that he's not gone on to the festival well from horses that have run in this race. I think that's clear to see.

I struggle to doubt Willie in any aspect of NH racing, but I get the overriding feeling his 'top' lot are already booked for the boat and the lot that end up in the Michael Purcell are there to pick up a nice pot with a view to running OK at the festival.

FWIW, I thought it was a two week gap

[Odin]

Since 2019 (last 5 Cheltenhams), Willie's only handicap winners have been Saint Roi, Galopin Des Champs and State Man - I was convinced he would have had more?! None of the 3 had won more than once and all had disappointed in some way that season (Saint Roi beaten at 1/3 first time out, Galopin PU, State Man F - bit harsh to say he disappointed)

[ComplyOrDie]

Since 2019 (last 5 Cheltenhams), Willie's only handicap winners have been Saint Roi, Galopin Des Champs and State Man - I was convinced he would have had more?! None of the 3 had won more than once and all had disappointed in some way that season (Saint Roi beaten at 1/3 first time out, Galopin PU, State Man F - bit harsh to say he disappointed)

Crikey.

That's a turn up. I must admit, without even looking or thinking about it, I would have thought he would have had at least double that amount.

[Benjy23]

They're all novice hurdlers as well aren't they. And graded ones in a handicap, top tier Grade 1s in the case of the latter two.

I know you're the man with the stats Odin How many handicap runners has he had at the festival in that time please?

[Odin]

They're all novice hurdlers as well aren't they. And graded ones in a handicap, top tier Grade 1s in the case of the latter two.

I know you're the man with the stats Odin How many handicap runners has he had at the festival in that time please?

Ha, getting a reputation

Willie Mullins last 5 festivals (2019 onwards):

Overall: 75 runners, 3 winners, 17 placed (22.67%)

Last run:
Beg/Mdn/Nov: 21 runners, 3 winners, 3 placed (14.29%)
Other: 52 runners, 0 winners, 12 placed (23.08%)

Number of runs that season:
0 : 5 bets, 0 winners, 3 placed (60 %)
1 : 7 bets, 0 winners, 1 placed (14.29%)
2 : 14 bets, 2 winners, 3 placed (21.43%)
3 : 23 bets, 1 winner, 6 placed (26.09%)
4+: 26 bets, 0 winners, 4 placed (15.38%)

Number wins that season:
0 : 36 bets, 1 winner, 11 placed (30.56%)
1 : 26 bets, 2 winners, 6 placed (23.08%)
2+: 13 bets, 0 winners, 0 placed (0%)

Key part here is going to be understanding how trends change with the new 4 runs in hurdles rule. Is Quai De Bourbon the new archetypal Mullins plot or is Sa Majeste? Will he start to run some of his undercooked a couple of weeks before the festival to try and get that 4th run and how would that affect the results?

[Eggs]

….maybe The Plate more likely for Theatre Man.

Richard Bandey; “He finished very strongly, but we’ve always felt he is a strong-finishing two-and-a-half-mile horse rather than a definite three-miler.

“I think after his mistake four out (at Cheltenham), he just got swallowed up a bit and didn’t go through the gaps as fast as Harry (Bannister, jockey) would have liked, but he ran on strongly and we were delighted with the run.”

He went on: “All roads will lead back to Cheltenham now, all being well, with both the Plate and the Ultima being his options – and determined by the ground and shape of the races really.

[Benjy23]

Cheers!

The places there are a bit of a concern with this statement as he's going close quite a lot... but I think on the face of it it'd put me off his handicappers slightly.

His only success is with novices, and he's had no success with horses having 4 runs or more than season - which the novices will need.

I'm not completely convinced with the 3 runners being well 'plotted' either to be honest. As much as hindsight will show you they were thrown in. State Man certainly ran on merit pre festival and just ended up on a mark he was better than. Saint Roi is with JP so who knows but went off 1/3 in his only defeat, so I'm going to assume was trying. And Gallopin looks a plot now and I may be doing them a disservice here but I think was just a bit of a slow burner, who wasn't enjoying the ground and running over a trip too short (I know that could be a way of plotting a horse).

[Odin]

I'm not completely convinced with the 3 runners being well 'plotted' either to be honest.

Completely agree with this - think the last run is a tell-tale though. Either winning a small scale race (Saint Roi/State Man) or being overpriced in a Graded race (Galopin). Willie has so many who just fall short of the 4 runs this year in that regard. The only "qualifiers" that I'm currently aware of are Sa Majeste and Absurde, but both have been found out in the market.

Gold Dancer, Jit Langy and Daddy Long Legs would all have qualified for me if the rule was still 3 runs.