Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yes it does, it just seems odd to give a young horse one go only.

He's got previous for this with some of his horses when he's sure the race wouldn't suit. Clan Des Obeaux skipped and went Betfair Bowl and I'm fairly sure Sanctuaire was another as a novice chaser.

As FF says, he isn't in two minds with this one.

[Istabraq]

What did people think about Thomas Darby performance today? 66/1 is still available? Could be one for a place at a decent price?
I know Mcfabulous was very much in command & cruising home but he seemed to stay on well. I believe i saw at the start of the season olly murphy say he is aiming for the stayers?

Just been catching up on races I missed and I’d have to have Thomas Darby one of the best value bets currently available.
I don’t think he was done any favours by the traffic today, they were all in a heap for most of the back straight and rounding the turn and the scrimmaging may not have helped, he looked to have got done for turn of foot by a speedier horse but the extra distance and hill will play to his strengths.
All that said it’s a much stronger renewal this year and at the moment the each way only pays 3 places, I think he’d be a great 4/5 places bet on the day...

[FinalFurlong91]

Just been catching up on races I missed and I’d have to have Thomas Darby one of the best value bets currently available.
I don’t think he was done any favours by the traffic today, they were all in a heap for most of the back straight and rounding the turn and the scrimmaging may not have helped, he looked to have got done for turn of foot by a speedier horse but the extra distance and hill will play to his strengths.
All that said it’s a much stronger renewal this year and at the moment the each way only pays 3 places, I think he’d be a great 4/5 places bet on the day...

Olly Murphy was delighted with third-placed Thomas Darby, saying: “He ran an absolute cracker and is crying out for three miles.

“It was a very encouraging run. He missed three out, but he was travelling well throughout the race.

“I was desperate to run him at Leopardstown over Christmas, but we couldn’t get there for one reason or another.

“The three-mile Grade One at Aintree will be his ultimate aim, as opposed to the Stayers’ Hurdle. There was a lot of positives to take out of that.”

looks like olly has Aintree in mind

[Istabraq]

Olly Murphy was delighted with third-placed Thomas Darby, saying: “He ran an absolute cracker and is crying out for three miles.

“It was a very encouraging run. He missed three out, but he was travelling well throughout the race.

“I was desperate to run him at Leopardstown over Christmas, but we couldn’t get there for one reason or another.

“The three-mile Grade One at Aintree will be his ultimate aim, as opposed to the Stayers’ Hurdle. There was a lot of positives to take out of that.”

looks like olly has Aintree in mind

Thanks FF, a little disappointing but he could easily still end up here, there won’t be many other options for the horse before Aintree...

[Quevega]

PFN is a realist. He said after today's win that he can't see how he'd beat Paisley or Thyme Hill at Cheltenham over the Stayers trip. It's difficult to argue with after what he showed at Newbury.

He's 100% correct to target Aintree, imo. That race is made for him.

Not all the time.

[Rooster Booster]

He's got previous for this with some of his horses when he's sure the race wouldn't suit. Clan Des Obeaux skipped and went Betfair Bowl and I'm fairly sure Sanctuaire was another as a novice chaser.

As FF says, he isn't in two minds with this one.

For me PN is a target race trainer and starts at the target and works back. This is a Cheltenham Festival forum so we are obviously biased towards Cheltenham Festival targets. I do not believe PN shares that bias any more like some other trainers.I think he takes an objective view and finds what he thinks is the right target for the horse. Where his have a go attitude comes in Is once he has selected the target race he will not be put off by the opposition and change his target to avoid. In the past I think he has regretted going against his gut feeling with horses like CDO and SC and trying to fit what he sees as square pegs into round holes and as the adage goes you are never too old to learn. In my case it seems more like you are never too old to make mistakes.

Dan Skelton I believe has a similar approach and that’s probably not a coincidence.

[Quevega]

Just been catching up on races I missed and I’d have to have Thomas Darby one of the best value bets currently available.
I don’t think he was done any favours by the traffic today, they were all in a heap for most of the back straight and rounding the turn and the scrimmaging may not have helped, he looked to have got done for turn of foot by a speedier horse but the extra distance and hill will play to his strengths.
All that said it’s a much stronger renewal this year and at the moment the each way only pays 3 places, I think he’d be a great 4/5 places bet on the day...

I thought he got a dream run round the home turn up the inside and because of this, the jockey went for home to soon.
He was then shown to be slow, and stayed on again at the finish.
As for Olly Murphy and his Aintree plan.
He's a fucking idiot.
But I'm not too bothered as he's probably just not good enough for the stayers with what's around right now.
if that's why he favours Aintree then he'll just get outpaced again. Whereas I agree with Istabraq and Cheltenham would possibly favour him more. He travelled like a stayer yesterday and was ridden on the bend like a speed horse.

[Pendil]

Olly Murphy was delighted with third-placed Thomas Darby, saying: “He ran an absolute cracker and is crying out for three miles.

“It was a very encouraging run. He missed three out, but he was travelling well throughout the race.

“I was desperate to run him at Leopardstown over Christmas, but we couldn’t get there for one reason or another.

“The three-mile Grade One at Aintree will be his ultimate aim, as opposed to the Stayers’ Hurdle. There was a lot of positives to take out of that.”

looks like olly has Aintree in mind

Odd statement about a horse (TD) that has run twice at Cheltenham, winning his maiden hurdle there and coming 2nd in the Supreme.

[Quevega]

For me PN is a target race trainer and starts at the target and works back. This is a Cheltenham Festival forum so we are obviously biased towards Cheltenham Festival targets. I do not believe PN shares that bias any more like some other trainers.I think he takes an objective view and finds what he thinks is the right target for the horse. Where his have a go attitude comes in Is once he has selected the target race he will not be put off by the opposition and change his target to avoid. In the past I think he has regretted going against his gut feeling with horses like CDO and SC and trying to fit what he sees as square pegs into round holes and as the adage goes you are never too old to learn. In my case it seems more like you are never too old to make mistakes.

Dan Skelton I believe has a similar approach and that’s probably not a coincidence.

That's exactly the opposite of what he's done with Mcfabulous.
He was going to target the stayers, but thinks he can't beat the other two. So he's not definitely going now.
Which I think is perfectly rational.
If one of the top 2 were to get injured, and the race chops up a bit, I think you may see Mcfabulous in the stayers after all.

[Spectre]

He'll turn up at Cheltenham. Sometimes immediate comments from trainers after a race are best ignored. Nicholls won't have a re-think with McFabulous. His mind is made up, and it probably was before the race. Olly on the other hand will see the blindingly obvious that his nest lifetime run was at Cheltenham, and will come here on the way to Aintree.

[Rooster Booster]

That's exactly the opposite of what he's done with Mcfabulous.
He was going to target the stayers, but thinks he can't beat the other two. So he's not definitely going now.
Which I think is perfectly rational.
If one of the top 2 were to get injured, and the race chops up a bit, I think you may see Mcfabulous in the stayers after all.

Respectfully disagree. I think he was still learning about the horse (at this sort of level) and on a fact finding mission at Newbury. Once he had the data points he needed he then decided on his target. I suspect what he saw at Newbury told him relkeel followed by Aintree. If he had learnt different facts he would have set different targets imo.I think this is all perfectly reasonable and if this were an Aintree forum and not a Cheltenham forum I don’t think it would even be much of a discussion point at all.

[Quevega]

He'll turn up at Cheltenham. Sometimes immediate comments from trainers after a race are best ignored. Nicholls won't have a re-think with McFabulous. His mind is made up, and it probably was before the race. Olly on the other hand will see the blindingly obvious that his nest lifetime run was at Cheltenham, and will come here on the way to Aintree.

I wouldn't bank on Olly.
He's a mug.
Look at his placing of this horse since his obvious staying on performance in the supreme.
His novice chase placing was appalling, and after mentioning the stayers this year, he then starts him off at Aintree.

To be fair, it's a real shame yesterdays race was moved from Cheltenham, as this may have reminded him why Cheltenham suits this type of horse.

It's the downhill bit of Cheltenham and then the hill that helps the staying types (like TD) with enough class, as they may get a bit outpaced down the hill but can take a breather of sorts, and many of the speedier types tend to overdo it and then cut out up the hill. And then the stayers can stay on past them.

Unfortunately though, sometimes they are not quite good enough either way.
The New One. is the best example of this.
Thomas Darby is probably in this category but it's frustrating he's been placed so poorly, as we may never really have it properly tested.

[Spectre]

It's a long time between now and April Q, and as you point out he was originally entered for the race at Cheltenham. I think he's just taking the pressure off himself, and any expectation with the Whateley's.

[Quevega]

Respectfully disagree. I think he was still learning about the horse (at this sort of level) and on a fact finding mission at Newbury. Once he had the data points he needed he then decided on his target. I suspect what he saw at Newbury told him relkeel followed by Aintree. If he had learnt different facts he would have set different targets imo.I think this is all perfectly reasonable and if this were an Aintree forum and not a Cheltenham forum I don’t think it would even be much of a discussion point at all.

What are we disagreeing on ?
He said they were going to see if he was a stayers horse and that he would be aiming for this race as his season target.

He mentioned the stayers hurdle after his win in March last season and then again after the persian war, his comments are below.
Note that he thought it was an open division.
Note he thought he's a proper stayer.
Note the serious feeling.
Note he's not gone chasing.
Note, he talks bollocks most of the time, especially when excited, but his objectivity and actual actions with this horse has actually been fine.

Which is why I slightly disagreed on the point I highlighted.


Nicholls said: "He jumped great and travelled round as we'd hoped.

"People have said we should have gone chasing with him but I've got a serious feeling he'd be very competitive in a Stayers' Hurdle this year.

"Another year over hurdles will do him good. We can run him in the Long Distance Hurdle on Hennessy day at Newbury and go from there.

"If he's competitive there then we can go down that route and then if not we can then think about chasing.

"He'd never be an Arkle sort of horse anyway, one day he might be a Gold Cup staying chaser.

"He's just a proper stayer. Last year he was just never a natural over his hurdles.

"But he's ironed that out now and it's a great division to go and target. There are some obvious races for him and Newbury will tell us a lot and three miles won't be a problem.

"I think it's an open division too and if you go chasing the RSA will always have some serious horses knocking about.

[Quevega]

It's a long time between now and April Q, and as you point out he was originally entered for the race at Cheltenham. I think he's just taking the pressure off himself, and any expectation with the Whateley's.

Apart from the unfortunate rerouting of the relkeel.
Do you think he's been well placed since ?
I mean the novice chase debut at Warwick, FFS ???