Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Market as of 22/05/2020



5 festival winners as the shortest 5 prices (although Envoi Allen isn't likely to run here)

Paisley Park 7/1 has been clipped and is back to favourite, despite losing his crown. The winner of the race Lisnager Oscar is over twice the price at 16/1.

Pertemps winner Sire Du Berlais has been popular on the forum, as has Thyme Hill.


Who do you fancy?

[ComplyOrDie]

The three I have down at the moment are Paisley Park (backed), Lisnager Oscar and Thyme Hill.

Obviously would be massively interested if Benie turned up, but think her target will be up in the air for a long time until then. May play the NRNB on her when it becomes available.

[Istabraq]

Have to respect Paisley Park if showing no after effects from his heart issues but I make Thyme Hill a proper bet here.
Very unfortunate in his potato race where every lane he took got busy, I’ve been pressing 16/1 since March, love his chances....

[Kevloaf]

For reference, after the festival:

Paisley Park was 10/1
Lisnager Oscar was 25/1



Have we got a quote regarding Thyme Hill staying over hurdles?

[ComplyOrDie]

Have to respect Paisley Park if showing no after effects from his heart issues but I make Thyme Hill a proper bet here.
Very unfortunate in his potato race where every lane he took got busy, I’ve been pressing 16/1 since March, love his chances....

Do you know anyone who has done times/sectionals between the pair? As I feel Thyme Hill would have preferred coming off a pace that Apples Jade set in the Stayers this season, not sure there was much the same pace in the Bartlett, but I have not done the figures.

[ComplyOrDie]

For reference, after the festival:

Paisley Park was 10/1
Lisnager Oscar was 25/1



Have we got a quite regarding Thyme Hill staying over hurdles?

Bit annoyed, I said somewhere on here I wanted to get on LO before his price disappeared, then went down to 20's and I said to myself tonight I'll back him, never did and now he's 16's

[Istabraq]

Do you know anyone who has done times/sectionals between the pair? As I feel Thyme Hill would have preferred coming off a pace that Apples Jade set in the Stayers this season, not sure there was much the same pace in the Bartlett, but I have not done the figures.

Haven’t seen any CoD.
Potato race won in a time 5 secs quicker than the Stayers, how much quicker the ground was is debatable but it puts the novices in a good light for me amd with many of the others heading for fences Thyme Hill has to be a player in the Stayers, given a clearer path....

[ComplyOrDie]

Haven’t seen any CoD.
Potato race won in a time 5 secs quicker than the Stayers, how much quicker the ground was is debatable but it puts the novices in a good light for me amd with many of the others heading for fences Thyme Hill has to be a player in the Stayers, given a clearer path....

Yeah, I had noted the race time, as you've said ground debatable, but I'd imagine, from a visual aspect anyway, that they went off too quick in the Stayers and ultimately paid the price at the end of the race, usually a sign of an unexpected winner too I believe. Might try and find someone who has done the sectionals.

[The King Pimm]

I’ve only backed Thyme Hill for this so far. I’m sure I read a quote from Hobbs that they were aiming to keep him over hurdles this season. I don’t have much confidence in Paisley Park after his heart issues and will wait to see how he performs next time out before considering. I think Lisnager Oscar offers good value at 16’s even this far out and he will be the next horse I look to cover in this race. The Stayers is like the Ryanair though in that quite a few horses end up entering this because they are not good enough for other Grade 1’s or are either not ready for fences or have performed poorly so I don’t tend to back too many early doors. I also fancy McFabulous for this but not sure if Cheltenham will suit him. His best performances have been on right handed flat tracks like many Nicholls horses but he’s still young and learning so may be the surprise horse in this race next season.

[Outlaw]

Andy Holding,Andy Gibson,Daryl Carter to name but a few who have free reviews/sectional breakdowns of races, non give a direct comparison of the AB Vs Stayers as the Pertemps vs Stayers on the same is an easier comparison (same day removes going variables more so). An easy but slightly lazy assumption is the 3m novices who filled 1-4 are all 150+,and given Paisley Park is the only horse with a rating deserving of 160+,any of the novices staying hurdling with even only slight improvements are at least on a par with what Paisley had been beating.

[Hardy Eustace]

For reference, after the festival:

Paisley Park was 10/1
Lisnager Oscar was 25/1


Have we got a quote regarding Thyme Hill staying over hurdles?

https://www.racingpost.com/news/colic-claims-hobbs-trained-2015-swinton-hurdle-winner-war-sound/432707

It's very likely he'll stay over hurdles with the Stayers' Hurdle in mind," Hobbs said. "He's schooled very well over fences but I think we'll delay chasing for 12 months.

"He's been getting better with each run over hurdles and he was possibly unlucky at Cheltenham.

"We thought long and hard about what trip we were going to run him over at Cheltenham but unless the ground was desperate we were going to go up to three miles and as it turned out he was staying on extremely well, he just got stopped twice at the wrong time."

[Arkle]

Paisley lost two shoes in running aswell

[hardheld]

Think thyme is overpriced at 16/1 and have back him EW.

I have a feeling Benie might come here, as Mullins hasn’t got much for the race and heaps of good mares to run in the mares hurdle. Will back 8/1 with bet365 cash out option in October. I think she needs 3 miles and would be hard to beat getting the mares allowance.

[Hardy Eustace]

First thoughts are sire du berlais is such a short price!!

Thyme hill will be one I look to add to the states shortly. Missed the 25s on Lisnagar (very annoying) and may leave now. Bennie has a squeak but she will be 10 next year (but only ran 10 times since being with Willie). I know this sounds daft but I don't actually think Cheltenham is her best course.

As for Paisley Park - he was found to have an irregular heart-beat after the race. I don't know nearly enough about equine welfare to make any comment but that would certainly be enough to put me off backing him until I have seen him run well on the racecourse again (though if he does the 7s will be taken instantly). How common is an irregular heart-beat post-race - is it common for horses to bounce back?

https://www.racingtv.com/news/paisley-park-to-have-further-tests-for-irregular-heartbeat

[Faugheen_Machine]

Ronald Pump, Paisley Park and Thyme Hill are the three I like.

Ronald Pump seemed unlucky to me last season and came back a bit sore.
PP is the class horse and will be hard to beat if turning to form and over his ailments.
TH could be progressive and was arguably unlucky in the AB, 16/1 is still a price that interests me.