Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Outlaw]

My current 1/2/3 (without Benie) would be Mcfabulous/Sire de Berlais/Thyme Hill

Still to explain the holes in Paisleys form thou Lobos, if you don't like or fancy him fair enough, but such comments require some explanation given what he has achieved over an 18 month period.

[Outlaw]

PP did put up two top performances in Jan and March 20219, registering a stone of improvement, and RPR’s of 172 and 170.
unforgettable races, superb stuff.

The form of his three runs since (RPR’s 161, 162, 154) would be very beatable by an average Stayers winner, so the question would be.....
can he reach the form of those two runs in Q1-2019 again?

The rest of his form is beatable.

Surely with a horse like Paisley him getting those big numbers is all about the opposition and what they run to on the day, he's not flashy and only ever does enough regardless of who he is against.

[Outlaw]

Think Fury Road is being overlooked here. 3rd in the AB and looked like he came to win jumping the last. Should improve again this year too. Can’t have Hobbs horses at Cheltenham after last year with what happened to Defi & Sporting John.

Judging a trainer on a couple of flops is a bit rash! he's primed Defi twice to win at the festival previously. Come March if the yard is flying leading up to it the reasoning of well they didn't run well last year won't be why those horses win/lose this current year.

[Topofthegame2021]

Judging a trainer on a couple of flops is a bit rash! he's primed Defi twice to win at the festival previously. Come March if the yard is flying leading up to it the reasoning of well they didn't run well last year won't be why those horses win/lose this current year.

I think that’s probably fair enough, I was heart broken, not even from a betting point of view. Love that horse!

[Saxon Warrior]

Surely with a horse like Paisley him getting those big numbers is all about the opposition and what they run to on the day, he's not flashy and only ever does enough regardless of who he is against.

Agreed, some horses hammer the opposition, and some do just enough.

The latter always leave us wondering if there is more in the locker or not.

PP’s biggest rating was in the Jan 19 Cleeve Hurdle when he romped home by 12 lengths.

[Lobos]

PP did put up two top performances in Jan and March 2019, registering “a stone” of improvement, and RPR’s of 172 and 170.
unforgettable races, superb stuff.

The form of his three runs since (RPR’s 161, 162, 154) would be very beatable by an average Stayers winner, so the question would be.....
can he reach the form of those two runs in Q1-2019 again?

The rest of his form is not close to that two-race peak, and is beatable.

Sire du Berlais’ win in the Pertemps has a better RPR (164) than anything PP has achieved outside of those two win in Jan/March 2019.

What he said ! Thanks Saxon. I've been trying to put something like that together for the last hour but not as elequently as you !

[Lobos]

Paisley is on a collision course with Mcfabulous in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury so let the horses do the talking!

[Outlaw]

Agreed, some horses hammer the opposition, and some do just enough.

The latter always leave us wondering if there is more in the locker or not.

PP’s biggest rating was in the Jan 19 Cleeve Hurdle when he romped home by 12 lengths.

Not quite sure what you are trying to refence quoting these figures, are you saying he has been in decline since his 2019 win? If not I don't see the relevance of mentioning it as he has won both races since then and had a valid excuse in March.

Stop editing your posts half hour later too as you mention other points that i end up not replying too

[Kevloaf]

Paisley is on a collision course with Mcfabulous in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury so let the horses do the talking!

What odds do you think they'll price that up?


An angle there could be Paisley Park to win the Long Distance with McFabulous for the RSA or something like that... obviously too early to tell.

[Viking Flagship]

A new star, I take it you've written Paisley off completely then? just remember how short he was for this race last year even with a couple of new improvers to challenge if he proves it was a one off he's still the on to beat.

Not at all. He’s been a worthy short priced favourite for the last couple of years but that’s partly due to the lack of any serious competition in this division, with it being full of horses who have failed at whatever else they were trying to do. McFabulous potentially has the ability to come through the ranks from being a classy bumper performer to being a top staying hurdler. And I find that natural progression quite exciting in a division that has really not created much excitement recently.

[Saxon Warrior]

Not quite sure what you are trying to refence quoting these figures, are you saying he has been in decline since his 2019 win? If not I don't see the relevance of mentioning it as he has won both races since then and had a valid excuse in March.

Stop editing your posts half hour later too as you mention other points that i end up not replying too

Spelling needs adjusting usually.

The point I was referencing is that PP has two big RPR’s from the time of his Stayers win, and he didn’t put up a figure like that, last season, even when winning, so I wouldn’t say “decline”, but I would (& did) say “beatable” on all of his form since winning the Stayers.

There could be nothing in that, just beat them, and go home, in his first two last season runs, before the Stayers, and he is capable of a big number again.

It would be some feat to come back and win the best Staying Hurdle in the calendar.

[Lobos]

What odds do you think they'll price that up?


An angle there could be Paisley Park to win the Long Distance with McFabulous for the RSA or something like that... obviously too early to tell.

Itll be tight. Wouldn't be surprised to see PP originally priced up as fav but then money come for Mcfabulous and him go off fav. I'd certainly be topping up on Mcfabulous for the Stayers before Newbury.

[Altior]

I can't warm to Paisley. I said he was lay of the fest this year I just couldn't pick what would beat him. I've never been too big fan of horses who come off the bridle so early and then dig so deep every race to win. The horse's insides must be in bits. It's bound to catch up to them sooner or later. After the heart issues I'd be willing to write him off completely this year.
I've McFabulous backed for this. I'd be disappointed if they decide to go over fences if the FTO isn't great.

[Kevloaf]

I can't warm to Paisley. I said he was lay of the fest this year I just couldn't pick what would beat him. I've never been too big fan of horses who come off the bridle so early and then dig so deep every race to win. The horse's insides must be in bits. It's bound to catch up to them sooner or later. After the heart issues I'd be willing to write him off completely this year.
I've McFabulous backed for this. I'd be disappointed if they decide to go over fences if the FTO isn't great.

That's interesting. One of my favourite qualities in a horse is one that finds off the bridle!

Apart from the absolute world class horses (who everyone loves), I look for 'responding to pressure' loads



I personally don't really like McFabulous, never really understand why he was so hyped and then he put in a really impressive display and the price was slashed to shorter than last years winner despite the form being (relative) muck!

Of course, McFabulous did look really good, if he was 50/1 I'd now back him without a doubt, but I'll be very disappointed if Paisley Park's best isn't too good for him.

[Altior]

That's interesting. One of my favourite qualities in a horse is one that finds off the bridle!

Apart from the absolute world class horses (who everyone loves), I look for 'responding to pressure' loads



I personally don't really like McFabulous, never really understand why he was so hyped and then he put in a really impressive display and the price was slashed to shorter than last years winner despite the form being (relative) muck!

Of course, McFabulous did look really good, if he was 50/1 I'd now back him without a doubt, but I'll be very disappointed if Paisley Park's best isn't too good for him.

Ah don't get me wrong I love a horse with heart who finds it when it needs to but when it is their Plan A every time I think it gets my heart going worse than the horse itself! Paisley is a warrior of a horse but I just can't see how he could keep doing it over and over again. If he does, then hats off. He's a lot to prove though for me to consider backing him.