2023 Novice Chasers

[Rooster Booster]

I have read through all these posts and I honestly have no clue what all the fuss is about. On what planet is (or ever has been) every horse priced up value. All of us could go through just about every market and cite multiple examples of horses that are terrible value. Horses that have close to zero chance of even being in the race, horses injured or reportedly out for the season, multiple horses that haven’t even run under rules or jumped an obstacle in public and so on. At least this one does carry bookmaker liabilities and has demonstrated a clear aptitude for his discipline and has a known target. Anybody believing this is the worst ante post price out there should go through each market with rigour and I guarantee they will find many many worse examples even if the actual price is bigger.

For me this is a poorly disguised conversation about Jonbon himself and not a genuine debate about value or bookmaker price integrity and I suspect a very similar conversation would have taken place anyhow even if Jonbon was currently 4s

[Eggs]

…PP are 16-1 Jonbon winning Arkle & the following years Champion Chase.

[Benjy23]

Don't even think it's about Jonbon do be honest. More desperation to take on a (relatively) short priced favourite, and trying to find something that isn't really there.

But you're right, there's a load of worse antepost prices for this year's festival. Claims this is the worst value are ridiculous, even at 7/4.

[Craigy14]

I actually feel a little sorry for the horse in all this he’s been beaten once by what could be a freak in his own stable, he’s won 7/8 races in his career including his point win, Grade 1 winning hurdler with a very taking debut over fences. He’s compared to Douvan far too often, just let him do the talking on the track and again it’s not his fault, also not his fault how the bookies price him.

I don’t buy the whole mistake by El Fab cost him at Aintree argument, the straight is plenty enough to recover and he barely lost any distance it was a momentum thing. But like I’ve said there was plenty time to get by if he wanted to.

I actually think Jonbon is the sort of horse that will always just do enough and never look that flashy. Hence why a lot of his performances have not thrown up big figures. Bar the Supreme did he ever look in any trouble in any of those hurdle performances? Haydock people might say but I don’t think he was ever in bother. Obviously had to battle at Aintree but it’s a Grade 1 they won’t all be won by a street, but he has such good battling qualities from what we’ve seen.

He might not win the Arkle but imo it’s between himself and whatever WPM puts in the race and they’ll need to be pretty good to beat him. Most will be on bigger prices so let’s not moan about post race prices as it happens every time a ‘name’ runs, it’s hard not to but these are the days we live in unfortunately.

[Istabraq]

Anybody believing this is the worst ante post price out there should go through each market with rigour and I guarantee they will find many many worse examples even if the actual price is bigger.

For me this is a poorly disguised conversation about Jonbon himself and not a genuine debate about value or bookmaker price integrity and I suspect a very similar conversation would have taken place anyhow even if Jonbon was currently 4s

The hypothetical discussion had Jonbon been 4/1 is that would give him a 25% chance of winning the Arkle.
What do you think happens to the market if any of the Irish horses come out and put up a similar performance on debut ?
If for example Dysart D or El Fabiolo puts in a solid effort with an RPR of 154, where would they price him then ? And what would that do to Jonbon's price ?

I'm surprised there are those (in here and in the media) who believe 7/4 or 2/1 is a fair price about a novice chaser, 4 months out, and whose multiple main challengers are yet to be seen.
I think it was Bollinger who commented on liabilities in an earlier post, ante post liabilities are minimal for bookmakers, not only can very few people get enough on to cause a ripple in the market but bookies these days have very good automatic models to manage risk.
I had a fairly small ew bet on a 40/1 shot yesterday and was referred and on this account my bets never get referred, it's been a well controlled process for many years, try doing it in a shop and if you want more than 25 quid it needs head office approval...

[darlojim]

JWM vs Kilcruit Punchestown over 2m 3 1/2

[ComplyOrDie]

Jonbon has received an RPR of 159 for yesterdays win.

For some context, Shishkin & Altior both achieved 160 for their chase debuts, and Sprinter Sacre 154, that puts Jonbon right there.

Edwardstone achieved 153 last season for his first completed run.

Douvan achieved 153 and Un De Sceaux 151 on their first chase starts.

Jonbon is right in the mix, have no doubts about that.

[Quevega]

There are a few things you can do if you think a price is too short.

1. Not have a bet at all.
2. Back something else.
3. Lay the fucker on the exchange (probably best to wait till Sandown as Mullins may still not have had all his out), and he may go shorter ifrunning and winning there (in a likely 3 horse race).

Or
4. IMO the worst option above all is to try to get "him onside" in a "rollup"

Shall we have a vote what the most popular option on the forum is ?


And Blazing Khal at 6-1 is far worse a price. FFS.

[Black Dog]

I think, because it's relative to the trainer, case in point would be Sprinter Sacre.

He finished 3rd in a pretty poor Supreme, the winner was rated 142 and achieved pretty low RPR's leading up to the Supreme, but look at how he turned out.

I wonder how many backed SS straight after the Supreme, and I wonder what price he was? Someone might know on here.

I backed SS at 10/1.Cant remember when or if I could have got bigger,but he wasn't much different in price to Jonbon after one run. I think Jonbon has been short from the word go because he is realistically Nickys only contender, and everyone knows if Willie doesn't win it, then Nicky probably will. Btw I plead guilty to historical aftertiming .

[ComplyOrDie]

I backed SS at 10/1.Cant remember when or if I could have got bigger,but he wasn't much different in price to Jonbon after one run. I think Jonbon has been short from the word go because he is realistically Nickys only contender, and everyone knows if Willie doesn't win it, then Nicky probably will. Btw I plead guilty to historical aftertiming .

Haha don't worry about the after timing, it was expected, given the question I asked. Cheers for the answer though

[Saxon Warrior]

For me this is a poorly disguised conversation about Jonbon himself and not a genuine debate about value or bookmaker price integrity and I suspect a very similar conversation would have taken place anyhow even if Jonbon was currently 4s

I agree Rooster Booster

It's usually those horses where the price has been missed, where punters can get more upset.

If a horse (or two) dominate a market and we genuinly think that theyre over-rated and underpriced, then there are probably other horses in that market that could be offering value alternatives to us.

If we can't see value in the market then its a "no bet" race for now, until something changes.

Jonbon was 13/2 yesterday morning to win at Warwick and the Arkle.
7/1 if a price boost was available to us
(P.Power)

If we can bet with that bookie, and liked the horse as an Arkle contender before he ran then 13/2 was a perfectly fair price to take.

[Quevega]

I backed SS at 10/1.Cant remember when or if I could have got bigger,but he wasn't much different in price to Jonbon after one run. I think Jonbon has been short from the word go because he is realistically Nickys only contender, and everyone knows if Willie doesn't win it, then Nicky probably will. Btw I plead guilty to historical aftertiming .

He was short early enough. But didn't run till December when he jogged around virtually on his own.
There was little in Ireland at that time.
And his UK rivals had all disappointed at some point.

He was hyped up in similar fashion to Jonbon, as a born chaser, from the right yard.

[charlie]

Does he?

And do they to the next part as well to be fair? It's a bunch of inferior Hurdlers who look likely to be even inferior over a fence.

I'm not backing him at 7/4, simply because I don't need to. But he's no worse price now than he's been for months to be honest. And there's nothing else in the market that I think is particularly over priced against him either.

Yes.

Time will tell. Sir Gerhard (157), El Fabiolo (155), State Man (156), Appreciate It (156) and Glory And Fortune (158) cannot be called a 'bunch of inferior hurdlers' when most of them were superior to Jonbon over hurdlers.

Saying they 'look likely to be even inferior over a fence' feels premature. Probably fair to question Sir Gerhard and GAF but I'd love to read a credible case on why Appreciate It or State Man wont take to fences, or, jump them well at speed.

It's hard to pinpoint what the opposition will be and thats the tricky part, but 7/4 is a terrible price IMO. Game of opinions and all that.

[Black Dog]

Haha don't worry about the after timing, it was expected, given the question I asked. Cheers for the answer though

I remember him being 1/4 on the day and Coral offering evens for a tenner for the first 100,000 customers. It lasted less than an hour

[Saxon Warrior]

There are a few things you can do if you think a price is too short.

1. Not have a bet at all.
2. Back something else.
3. Lay the fucker on the exchange (probably best to wait till Sandown as Mullins may still not have had all his out), and he may go shorter ifrunning and winning there (in a likely 3 horse race).

Or
4. IMO the worst option above all is to try to get "him onside" in a "rollup"

Shall we have a vote what the most popular option on the forum is ?


And Blazing Khal at 6-1 is far worse a price. FFS.

Is Blazing Khal a "beard" for Byrne's real Stayers hope Run For Oscar ?
Who knows?

They are the same Official Rating over hurdles in GB (147)

He keep saying he's not ready, and we've moved back from Christmas to the DRF for a potential first run, and hes already been missing for a year.

---------

The worst option is rollups if anyone genuinely thinks that a horse is way to short, and over-rated.