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Could very much see appreciate it being Mullins BANC horse. They’ve always thought he was a gold cup horse and I don’t think the fact he’s been racing over 2m would matter much, they seem certain he’d have no problem with 3m. He’s not a keen free going horse so that wouldn’t be a worry, he seems a very uncomplicated ride. The banc looks the most open novice chase at the moment so you’d think Mullins might want to send one of his big guns there, if he decided to go with appreciate it you’d imagine he’d be favourite.
Had a chance to watch Jonbon back again and compare it to the 2m4f handicap chase and the 3m veteran chase won by Ramses de Teillee.
Jonbon's time from 7 out when they take the fences on down the straight in quick succession isn't great compared to the other chases - all of them pretty similar with the veteran chase slightly faster than Jonbon's and the handicap chase slightly slower.
From 3 out, 2 out and the last he again doesn't compare favourably to either race.
Obviously he may have gone quicker if Coleman had had to go for him but this was the same for Jonbon last year prior to Cheltenham - great cruising speed that puts inferior horses in trouble but pretty poor final sections to his races. For me, he doesn't have that quality at the end of his races like the really good horses.
No doubt the Racing Post will give him a nice RPR for this win, but I'd suspect at least one of Willie's will beat him and if Banbridge turned up for the Henry 8th I'd fancy him to turn over Jonbon.
Had a chance to watch Jonbon back again and compare it to the 2m4f handicap chase and the 3m veteran chase won by Ramses de Teillee.
Jonbon's time from 7 out when they take the fences on down the straight in quick succession isn't great compared to the other chases - all of them pretty similar with the veteran chase slightly faster than Jonbon's and the handicap chase slightly slower.
From 3 out, 2 out and the last he again doesn't compare favourably to either race.
Obviously he may have gone quicker if Coleman had had to go for him but this was the same for Jonbon last year prior to Cheltenham - great cruising speed that puts inferior horses in trouble but pretty poor final sections to his races. For me, he doesn't have that quality at the end of his races like the really good horses.
No doubt the Racing Post will give him a nice RPR for this win, but I'd suspect at least one of Willie's will beat him and if Banbridge turned up for the Henry 8th I'd fancy him to turn over Jonbon.
I can’t ever remember a 3 runner race being a proper test, especially when one of them would be quite happy out the back working on his mark, which is why I’m a
little surprised at the general reaction to his performance.
Sterner tests will come, he may prove to be up to them, but given his Arkle price I’d suggest there will be better value in his opponents odds in those tests…
Very taking debut by Jonbon today.
Clever at his fences and responded when Aiden asked him for some big jumps.
I'd say if you could get 7/2 (his pre race price) tonight i'd be taking that gladly if I hadn't of backed him.
Less than half of that at 2/1 just makes no appeal and has reached the price (like plenty do) where you're now better to wait a few months.
Whilst not a superstar, he was still up there with the best of the novice hurdlers (bar one) last year.
He pales in comparison to some of the stars Nicky has had in past years.
But relative to the division he was in, and is going into. Few have a better starting point to build on.
Monmiral was in all likelihood one of the few / only UK horses who could maybe beat him. And that was at a stretch.
And shows how lacking the pool of UK challengers are.
I couldn't have any of Elliott's novices in the Arkle.
And Banbridge, though it's a possibility he goes 2 miles in March, will more than likely head to the Turners imo.
So unsurprisingly it'll come down to Willie Mullins.
I just can't see any other horses coming into the picture.
It's the 2 trainers who have absolutely dominated this race over the last decade.
The key difference this year though is that the likes Shishkin and Altior had been Supreme winners and clear in the ratings (159 and 160)
Plus Mullins would have one realistic dart in Min and Energumene who when both got injured, had no alternative.
Such is the strength of depth across every division that he holds this season...
It's not that wild to say he could very well throw three 150 hurdlers at the Arkle. And one who did reach the 160 mark two seasons back.
So for all the while Jonbon heads the market, at a very short price - the play is on the Mullins horses potentially earmarked for the race.
Dysart Dynamo, I couldn't se going anywhere else. If he's good enough for the festival. The Arkle will be his race. El Fabiolo is the one who has really surprised me in how highly ranked he appears to be off the back of the stable updates.
Whilst plenty have had the Arkle name checked - he's the one who's been mapped out in running in the key Irish trials and apparent number one.
And of course is so closely matched on that Aintree match with Jonbon. Appreciate It, has too many questions to answer for me, for all I was all over him in the race last season. I've by no means given up on him, but i'll be happy to take a shorter price if and when things become a bit clearer for him as the season goes on.
Jonbon has a serious chance in the Arkle right now.
But the race may well look very different once the Mullins runners have made their chasing debuts.
Anyone getting involved from here on in having missed a price on Jonbon should surely be getting the Mullins runners onside instead.
7/4 Jonbon has to up there with one of the worst prices in ante post history surely.
Was a country mile behind Constitution Hill in the Supreme with the only other credible runner on the floor, should have got beat by El Fabiolo at Aintree, wins today and it suddenly a Sprinter Sacre, Douvan and Altior price when the best three that are likely to be in the race are parked up on the other side of the Irish Sea.
7/4 is just madness to me, if any of Sir Gerhard, El Fabiolo, Appreciate It, State Man or Dysart Dynamo come out and impress what happens to the market then ?
Whilst agreeing very much that 7/4 is indeed quite short now, the one thing I’d like to mention, which never, ever gets mentioned, is………
What is his liability to each bookmaker??
We can all suggest 7/4 is way, way too short. We may even be right.
But if Mr Betfred, Mrs Bet365 & Mr SKYBet show you the hundreds of thousands thus far that have been laid down on Jonbon on one side of the table, and then show you the tens of thousands placed thus far on all the other horses, we would very much appreciate, understand and fully acknowledge why the 7/4 has become the 7/4.
There is reasonable evidence thus far that he should be the ante post Arkle favourite.
7/4 could reasonably be described as a ‘terrible price’ 4 months out. I agree.
But it’s also very, very reasonable to suggest that for the last 8 months (and way beyond that), a very large amount of collective money means he is a disaster of a liability thus far for any bookmaker.
I’m trying to assess this properly as to why he sits at 7/4.
Whilst not a superstar, he was still up there with the best of the novice hurdlers (bar one) last year.
I think Jonbon benefitted from being well placed in a weaker division than normal tbh. He's definitely not a superstar but I think it's fair to add the word 'yet' as he could go on to achieve superstar status. The issue now is he's priced up like a Grade 1 winning chaser, when in reality, he was lucky to start this season as a Grade 1 winning hurdler. His form over hurdles just does't do it for me. If you take RPR's as a rough guide Jonbon never posted a figure that hasn't been significantly bettered by something else. Lostintranslation bettered him at Newbury and BVD battered what he did that day. Puffin Billy, L'Ami Serge and Yanworth bettered him at Ascot. Neo Wolf and Zamdy Man bettered him at Haydock. Darlan, BVD and MTOY bettered him at Aintree. His Supreme run was average and the sectional analysis on his exuberant display yesterday continues to leave me skeptical. If he wasn't related to Douvan or with Nicky Henderson, he'd be 10/1+ based on what he's actually achieved IMO. I do think false favourites leave great opportunity in behind though. It's easy as punters to get fixated and frustrated with such short priced favs, so if you don't like them take them on.
I think Jonbon benefitted from being well placed in a weaker division than normal tbh. He's definitely not a superstar but I think it's fair to add the word 'yet' as he could go on to achieve superstar status. The issue now is he's priced up like a Grade 1 winning chaser, when in reality, he was lucky to start this season as a Grade 1 winning hurdler. His form over hurdles just does't do it for me. If you take RPR's as a rough guide Jonbon never posted a figure that hasn't been significantly bettered by something else. Lostintranslation bettered him at Newbury and BVD battered what he did that day. Puffin Billy, L'Ami Serge and Yanworth bettered him at Ascot. Neo Wolf and Zamdy Man bettered him at Haydock. Darlan, BVD and MTOY bettered him at Aintree. His Supreme run was average and the sectional analysis on his exuberant display yesterday continues to leave me skeptical. If he wasn't related to Douvan or with Nicky Henderson, he'd be 10/1+ based on what he's actually achieved IMO. I do think false favourites leave great opportunity in behind though. It's easy as punters to get fixated and frustrated with such short priced favs, so if you don't like them take them on.
The problem with saying last year's novice hurdlers were a weak bunch so you want to take him on, is that he's now facing exactly the same bunch of horses over fences surely? With the exception of possibly Appreciate It and Banbridge (although he was actually a novice hurdler last season but thought only good enough for a handicap), both of which I'd have as unlikely runners anyway.
The problem with saying last year's novice hurdlers were a weak bunch so you want to take him on, is that he's now facing exactly the same bunch of horses over fences surely? With the exception of possibly Appreciate It and Banbridge (although he was actually a novice hurdler last season but thought only good enough for a handicap), both of which I'd have as unlikely runners anyway.
You don't take on Jonbon because last years novice hurdlers (barring CH) were a weaker bunch, you take him on because he's proven not to be a superstar but is priced up as if he is, for me it's that simple. Its tough discussing on here because lots of people have ante post slips at nice prices (myself included), but looking at this objectively there is no way he deserves to be 7/4. The massive tick for Jonbon (which you elude to) is that all roads lead to the Arkle, but thats not enough IMO to make 7/4 fair or a good bet. Appreciate It and Banbridge might not go, but if Appreciate It improved even marginally for a fence I'm convinced he'd laugh Jonbon into another parish in an Arkle. Banbridge is a live player having won the trial well and you then have horses we haven't even discussed yet who'll come from having competed in open company over hurdles (like Footpad) and do really well over fences. You then have El Fabiolo who would be bang there on hurdles form with Jonbon and he's 7/1 vs 7/4. You then have novices that could go chasing like SG & SM, both of which ran to a higher level than Jonbon. I appreciate that listing loads of horses that may or may not go doesn't help people find an Arkle winner, but it serves as a stark reminder that the 7/4 fav has lots of horses in behind that were better than him over hurdles and stand every chance of being better over fences. He is a terrible price.
Let’s not forget that many horses improve for age and a fence.
it’s getting on them before they do that’s sometimes the difficult part.
you only have to look at last years 3 chase champions to see that.
none of them were shit hot hurdlers but are now the three best chasers in training pretty much
I think Jonbon benefitted from being well placed in a weaker division than normal tbh. He's definitely not a superstar but I think it's fair to add the word 'yet' as he could go on to achieve superstar status. The issue now is he's priced up like a Grade 1 winning chaser, when in reality, he was lucky to start this season as a Grade 1 winning hurdler. His form over hurdles just does't do it for me. If you take RPR's as a rough guide Jonbon never posted a figure that hasn't been significantly bettered by something else. Lostintranslation bettered him at Newbury and BVD battered what he did that day. Puffin Billy, L'Ami Serge and Yanworth bettered him at Ascot. Neo Wolf and Zamdy Man bettered him at Haydock. Darlan, BVD and MTOY bettered him at Aintree. His Supreme run was average and the sectional analysis on his exuberant display yesterday continues to leave me skeptical. If he wasn't related to Douvan or with Nicky Henderson, he'd be 10/1+ based on what he's actually achieved IMO. I do think false favourites leave great opportunity in behind though. It's easy as punters to get fixated and frustrated with such short priced favs, so if you don't like them take them on.
I have a few points to make about this (surprise, surprise ).
Firstly, on the RPR's I'm going to completely ignore the non Henderson horses because Henderson is in a different parish to the trainers of them other horses (and we are talking about another Henderson horse in Jonbon), especially when it comes to Cheltenham, so that leaves L'ami Serge, Buveur D'air, Darlan & My Tent Or Yours. Buveur D'air ended up being a two time Champion Hurdle champion, Darlan was thought of as the next big Champion Hurdle contender but for losing his life (he also recorded the same RPR as Jonbon in the Supreme, 149) & My Tent Or Yours was a 3 time placed Champion Hurdle horse, this is the top level of the 2m hurdle division, and you would be worried Jonbon couldn't better them in his novice hurdle campaign? The only one who fails really is L'Ami Serge, and he was upped in tripped for his novice chase at the festival because he didn't want to face Douvan again, who had already beaten him in the Supreme. Jonbon won't be re-opposing Constitution Hill, so no issue with him going anywhere but the Arkle, IMO, and against horses he has already beaten.
Secondly, Not one of them Henderson horses above came from a p2p background. Jonbon was brought as a future chaser. He won his p2p by 15 lengths, and I'd suggest, although it's a term used frequently, that whatever he achieved over hurdles was a bonus in his case. Also if research was done and the p2p was viewed, everyone would know he could jump a fence. You wouldn't have needed to wait to see him over a fence to back him, is my point here. Obviously a difference in class from a p2p to a novice chase under rules, but I think he had already shown a level of class in his novice hurdle campaign. None of El Fabiolo or Dysart Dynamo have been seen over a fence yet, not in a p2p or in public, so they have a whole heap more to prove than Jonbon, not to mention he already has the beating of the former, through their Aintree meet.
Thirdly, Nicky has form with placed Supreme and even Ballymore horses going on to run well the following season whether it be Champion Hurdle or Novice Chases. I think the most obvious one is Sprinter Sacre, he recorded a RPR of just 151 in the Supreme, only 2lbs more than Jonbon. IF, and it is a big IF, Jonbon can follow the trajectory of Sprinter Sacre and ends up 2lbs inferior to him come the Arkle then he'll absolutely piss up in it, IMO, because the opposition is not great.
I appreciate it is now a price thing, but the 10/1 (possibly bigger, maybe someone can confirm) was there straight after the Supreme. Even after Nicky said he'll likely go chasing I think he was still a 7/1-8/1 shot. We know from history that it's likely Henderson and Willie will have strong Arkle hands, so once we knew Jonbon was going chasing was the time to be backing him, IMO.
Of the ones we've seen, If you offered me 2/1 Jonbon or 12/1 Banbridge (general prices for the pair) for the Arkle I'd be taking the Jonbon one every day of the week. It was 2 weeks ago everyone was gushing about Banbridge for the NH Chase now he's an Arkle horse
I actually think El Fabiolo is an awful price now. He's only 4pts bigger than Jonbon having already been beat by him, and I'm upping the Jonbon performance off the back of having a hard race at Cheltenham. El Fabiolo has never seen a fence in public and he has never run at Cheltenham, so he's got to prove he can take to the track, and given how Jonbon battled back past him up the long Aintree run in I would have doubts about how much he wants it, currently. I'd rather back any of the other Mullins horses for the Arkle, right now.
I realise having Goshen backed is likely to come and bite me in the arse, so before that does I'd like to make it clear this is a sentimental bet more than a meaningful, thought out one, not that that probably needed answering
You don't take on Jonbon because last years novice hurdlers (barring CH) were a weaker bunch, you take him on because he's proven not to be a superstar but is priced up as if he is, for me it's that simple. Its tough discussing on here because lots of people have ante post slips at nice prices (myself included), but looking at this objectively there is no way he deserves to be 7/4. The massive tick for Jonbon (which you elude to) is that all roads lead to the Arkle, but thats not enough IMO to make 7/4 fair or a good bet. Appreciate It and Banbridge might not go, but if Appreciate It improved even marginally for a fence I'm convinced he'd laugh Jonbon into another parish in an Arkle. Banbridge is a live player having won the trial well and you then have horses we haven't even discussed yet who'll come from having competed in open company over hurdles (like Footpad) and do really well over fences. You then have El Fabiolo who would be bang there on hurdles form with Jonbon and he's 7/1 vs 7/4. You then have novices that could go chasing like SG & SM, both of which ran to a higher level than Jonbon. I appreciate that listing loads of horses that may or may not go doesn't help people find an Arkle winner, but it serves as a stark reminder that the 7/4 fav has lots of horses in behind that were better than him over hurdles and stand every chance of being better over fences. He is a terrible price.
Does he?
And do they to the next part as well to be fair? It's a bunch of inferior Hurdlers who look likely to be even inferior over a fence.
I'm not backing him at 7/4, simply because I don't need to. But he's no worse price now than he's been for months to be honest. And there's nothing else in the market that I think is particularly over priced against him either.
Let’s not forget that many horses improve for age and a fence.
it’s getting on them before they do that’s sometimes the difficult part.
you only have to look at last years 3 chase champions to see that.
none of them were shit hot hurdlers but are now the three best chasers in training pretty much
I think, because it's relative to the trainer, case in point would be Sprinter Sacre.
He finished 3rd in a pretty poor Supreme, the winner was rated 142 and achieved pretty low RPR's leading up to the Supreme, but look at how he turned out.
I wonder how many backed SS straight after the Supreme, and I wonder what price he was? Someone might know on here.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 17 November 2022, 09:07 AM.
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