2023 Novice Chasers

[Zachx02]

Someone said the Sir Gerhard situation was deja vu of Appreciate It last year and theyve only gone and been right

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yep. Open up a bottle of something strong, watch the Betfair 2022 Cheltenham preview night and take a shot every time Paul says the phrase 'wait for aintree'.

You'll be off your tits by the end of day 1

I joke, but it's true. Does he have the strength and depth he once had, no, but of his 10 top chasers last year I think Frodon was the only one to go to Cheltenham whilst he saved 7 for Aintree.

WPM had more winners than PN had runners last year. He's always reminding the world the season is not all about Cheltenham so unless he name checks a specific race, backing his are best avoided.

Ok, cheers for the answer.
I personally think he’s all about getting as much prize money as he can, and will run his horses accordingly.
If he trained a real good one that he thought had a big chance at the festival, he would run it there, but he’s not obsessed with the festival, that is clear.

[charlie]

Ok, cheers for the answer.
I personally think he’s all about getting as much prize money as he can, and will run his horses accordingly.
If he trained a real good one that he thought had a big chance at the festival, he would run it there, but he’s not obsessed with the festival, that is clear.

That in itself basically means wait for Aintree. Few Irish runners = less competitive = more prize money.

I have to have a really really good reason for backing one of this (and ironically, did today, see mares hurdle thread).

[Carnage at Taunton]

That in itself basically means wait for Aintree. Few Irish runners = less competitive = more prize money.

I have to have a really really good reason for backing one of this (and ironically, did today, see mares hurdle thread).

Well it’s possible it can be deciphered that way.
End of the day he’s looking to get as much prize money as he can, that’s his job I would think.
Maybe if he was more obsessed with Cheltenham he would be tempted not to do his job as he should?
Absolutely agree he’s not a trainer for antepost festival bets, but at least we all know that.

[Kevloaf]

Well it’s possible it can be deciphered that way.
End of the day he’s looking to get as much prize money as he can, that’s his job I would think.
Maybe if he was more obsessed with Cheltenham he would be tempted not to do his job as he should?
Absolutely agree he’s not a trainer for antepost festival bets, but at least we all know that.

What's Willie's job? As much prize money or festival winners?

Or both?

[Carnage at Taunton]

What's Willie's job? As much prize money or festival winners?

Or both?

Well, I’m not privy to his relationship with his owners, some of which may be all about festival winners, but ultimately I would think it’s as much prize money.

[FinalFurlong91]

Well, I’m not privy to his relationship with his owners, some of which may be all about festival winners, but ultimately I would think it’s as much prize money.

I'd think it's more about winners

These people are shelling out silly money for these jumps horses with little to no hope of getting anything close to their money back

They must be in the game for fun and want winners

Can't see why else anyone would be shelling out 300k+ for a jumps horse unless they just want the kudos of big festival winners as the prize money simply isn't there to cover that unless you buy a constitution hill or altior

[Carnage at Taunton]

Let me put it this way…… when I was involved in ownership I would always go with the trainer decision on where to run.
Knowing that he was trying to earn us as much as he could, I was happy wherever he ran. If that meant running in a lesser race or at a lesser meeting, so be it.
Not that I was involved with a horse good enough for Cheltenham, but you know what I mean.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'd think it's more about winners

These people are shelling out silly money for these jumps horses with little to no hope of getting anything close to their money back

They must be in the game for fun and want winners

Can't see why else anyone would be shelling out 300k+ for a jumps horse unless they just want the kudos of big festival winners as the prize money simply isn't there to cover that unless you buy a constitution hill or altior

Well we always wanted fun and winners, and with winners comes prize money, and that all helps with the cost each month to have a horse in training.
We had a lot more fun than winners, that’s for sure!!

[The Giant Bolster]

I'm surprised by the pricing of Minella Cocooner and wondered if I had missed something from the stable.

From memory, 2.5 miles was consistently mentioned as his trip. If that was Plan A, surely it is more likely if Sir Gerhard has an injury? But the market has him 20s for the Turners and 11s (joint fav in some places for the BANC).

[Rooster Booster]

What's Willie's job? As much prize money or festival winners?

Or both?

If the horse is absolutely top drawer then you’d want it with Willie. Same answer if you want a festival runner. Whether I’d sacrifice prize money for a festival run/place is harder. If a horse is in the 150 to 160 and change range then I’d back PN to garner more prize money on average over time..

I’m not sure many would get ?400k of prize money from the likes of Pic Dorhy and Black Corton , My Will at ?457k. This type of horse is PNs sweet spot imo. That’s more than bachasson and Cilaos Emery combined. Franco De Port another with almost half the prize money. Even easy game cannot get close to pic dorhy. The Willie exception perhaps is Melon whose owners have certainly benefitted from festival places but even he did not amass as much as My Will.

I believe that if PN trained Gaillard he would have earnt more than ?85k in chase prize money by now....the down side it would no longer be a novice and would not have a winning opportunity at this season’s festival.

Intuitively I also feel that very few trainers could have earnt as much prize money out of Frodon who has earnt over a million without hitting 170, winning a grand national or running outside of uk and Ireland (recognising elevated french prize money earnt by hoses like thousand stars and ptit zig).It would be interesting to know how many other trainers have achieved this with a horse that never hit 170 allowing for sex allowance

I fully concede that my memory and examples may be selective to support my non fact based intuitive argument and if actual facts show otherwise I’d change my view immediately.

I don’t think there is a right or wrong. If you value prize money over festival runs you’d be hard pressed to find better than PN for horses just below elite class. If you want the buzz of Cheltenham and are prepared to sacrifice some prize money then you’d choose Willie or Gordon all day long with this kind of horse.

[charlie]

I'm surprised by the pricing of Minella Cocooner and wondered if I had missed something from the stable.

From memory, 2.5 miles was consistently mentioned as his trip. If that was Plan A, surely it is more likely if Sir Gerhard has an injury? But the market has him 20s for the Turners and 11s (joint fav in some places for the BANC).

Quotes from the stable about intermediate trips were based around him racing keenly as a novice hurdler. He settled much better on chase debut which has hopefully settled those worries. He's a big Flemensfirth that thrived over longer trips as a hurdler and is most likely to be seen to best effect over 3m.

[Quevega]

I fully concede that my memory and examples may be selective to support my non fact based intuitive argument and if actual facts show otherwise I’d change my view immediately.

Love this.

I recommend almost all members add this caveat. On all of their posts.

Except Lobos whose posts should simply have the caveat

"This is a blurt"

[That Horse]

Love this.

Except Lobos whose posts should simply have the caveat

"This is a blurt"

Facile Vega for the Ballymore would also work here

[nortonscoin200]

I'm surprised by the pricing of Minella Cocooner and wondered if I had missed something from the stable.

From memory, 2.5 miles was consistently mentioned as his trip. If that was Plan A, surely it is more likely if Sir Gerhard has an injury? But the market has him 20s for the Turners and 11s (joint fav in some places for the BANC).

Totally. agree The Giant Bolster - whatever you're missing, I'm missing it too.