2023 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Poor old Jonbon. Feel sorry for him with all these Mullins Arkle horses ganging up on him ! I'm sure he's up for the fight though. Going to be some race !!

[charlie]

We obviously look at the Supreme differently, no worries.
Personally i think had Kilcruit been as close to the pace as Jonbon was, and had tried to compete with Ch, Jonbon would have beaten him a lot further.
Keeping a gallop up trying to beat Ch would take a toll on any horse, but to his credit he did stick on well up the hill despite.
Anyway hes chasing now, and doing it very well so far,and has no Ch to compete against.

Very differently, but thats fine. The beauty of racing!

I don't think Constitution Hill is particularly relevant tbh. Jonbon didn't finish tamely because CH is a freak (who he didn't see for most the race which was over in seconds), he finished tamely because for the first time in his life he faced a proper rival in DD who set fractions that took the sting out his finish - for me its that simple.

Thats what I mean when I question Jonbons minerals in a finish. FP tried doing the same thing to Appreciate It and I think his early sectionals were even quicker than DD, although DD sustained for longer, and he stormed up the hill like a proper tool - that is whats waiting for Jonbon in march and I cannot wait!!!!!

Good debate this

[Saxon Warrior]

Did DD and Jonbon just burn each other out rather?

Could look at it a couple of different ways

In any case it looks to me that Jonbon this season is thriving for going over fences, and his hurdles form is a pretty strong foundation to improve from.

I tend to be looking to shrink my book of bets a little from hereon in, usually the Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases in particular.

The aim being to have usually two for each (sometimes one or three) for races on the day.

Looking at my three for the Arkle, I'm happy to leave those, until we watch the Irish Arkle, and we know definitively whose best in Ireland.

If I was forced to discard two and keep only one, on what we've seen this so far this season - I'd keep Jonbon.

Part of the reason for that is that I haven't seen the other two (Mullins horses) race in anything other than walkover Beginners Chases yet.

Only Saint Roi has taken on and beaten decent 2M opposition in Ireland so far.

That will change in the Irish Arkle.
Really looking forward to it.

May change the pecking order of my current three after that.

[Madmoose]

Any thoughts on Banbridge to bounce back to form on better ground in the next month or so?

Hopefully pitch up at the DRF vs James Du Berlais

The novice chase divisions are very open this year without a superstar such as Galopin or a Vautour so could be ripe for decent priced winners, I would forgive Banbridge for now and take heart of Martin Pipe winners who go on for fences as time goes on.

[ComplyOrDie]

Only Saint Roi has taken on and beaten decent 2M opposition in Ireland so far.

And that was off the back of Fil Dor making an absolute hash of the 2nd to last fence, and no chance of getting back in to the race.

[Outlaw]

Is Boothill actually any good though? He couldn't win a handicap hurdle of a mark in the low 130s.

He won a handicap where reasonably 4 of them were turning up to finish out the back and look for a mark reduction. He beat So Scottish who was out of the handicap.

He then came 2nd to Jonbon in effectively a 2 horse race.

He then beat Auconrisque at Kempton who couldn't win a limited handicap chase off 138.

Boothill is rock solid since chasing, I’ve often questioned him in the past but not this season. So Scottish is undoubtedly well hcapperd as time will tell.

He beat Auconrisque with more in hand then the official winning margin the last day imo given the easy lead and tough to make up ground there.

Auconrisque prob a hard sort to win off given his style of racing so can understand the bashing of his credentials but he ran a solid race the last day and I think it ties in well overall given that hcap hr ran in is proving to be very warm.

[Lobos]

Any thoughts on Banbridge to bounce back to form on better ground in the next month or so?

Hopefully pitch up at the DRF vs James Du Berlais

The novice chase divisions are very open this year without a superstar such as Galopin or a Vautour so could be ripe for decent priced winners, I would forgive Banbridge for now and take heart of Martin Pipe winners who go on for fences as time goes on.

Easily forgotten isn't he on the back of running over too far last time in ground all against him. Funny you should bring him up as I watched his Cheltenham Novice Chase win back again last night and it took my breath away for a second time. Equally as good a jumping performance as Jonbon and any of the other Irish hopefuls. A much better race also than a few of Willies have been running in. I've got him on board and am not letting go. He's a player all right and may well surprise everyone back at a course he loves and on spring ground. His Martin Pipe race has thrown up mountains of subsequent winners as well both hurdles and fences which is also worth noting.

Think someone has already pointed out the RPR he got that day is on a par with that given to El Fabiolo but higher than the rest of Willies Arkle hopefuls.

[Muswell]

No Ballygriffin at Warwick

https://twitter.com/thespieler/status/1612444692028993539?s=46&t=j_TzE6ua97xrfYzYdS6zfg

[Carnage at Taunton]

Very differently, but thats fine. The beauty of racing!

I don't think Constitution Hill is particularly relevant tbh. Jonbon didn't finish tamely because CH is a freak (who he didn't see for most the race which was over in seconds), he finished tamely because for the first time in his life he faced a proper rival in DD who set fractions that took the sting out his finish - for me its that simple.

Thats what I mean when I question Jonbons minerals in a finish. FP tried doing the same thing to Appreciate It and I think his early sectionals were even quicker than DD, although DD sustained for longer, and he stormed up the hill like a proper tool - that is whats waiting for Jonbon in march and I cannot wait!!!!!

Good debate this

I do see your point and of course I may be wrong.
This is I how I see it….. Yes, Jonbon was ahead of CH therefore not seeing him till later, but he would have been conscious of his presence and imo was ridden to try and get him at it earlier than CH because They knew Jonbon would stay well.
Maybe DD went a bit too quick, not too sure on that to be honest, but he was a danger and had to be kept fairly near.
Kilcruit was ridden off the pace to pick up any pieces, and like I said imo would have finished 2nd had Jonbon been weak up the hill. The way the race was run I would be encouraged that Jonbon finished well enough to keep 2nd.

He ran strong to the line at Sandown, which also encourages me, and I know a lot don’t rate Boothill, but hes a good jumper and stays in a race really well because of that.
He looks to be improving to me, and I would not be shocked if he ran a good race in the Arkle if he turned up, tad underrated imo.

[ComplyOrDie]

I was looking at some ratings and how is it that The Real Whacker remains on 139 despite winning a Grade 2 and giving weight away in the process, beating 148+ rated horses?

On the BHA website it says it was updated on 3rd Jan. He can run in a Kim Muir

[Quevega]

I was looking at some ratings and how is it that The Real Whacker remains on 139 despite winning a Grade 2 and giving weight away in the process, beating 148+ rated horses?

On the BHA website it says it was updated on 3rd Jan. He can run in a Kim Muir

They'll re rate him as of tomorrow.
Published every tuesday, based on Sunday to Saturday's the previous week.
So any races ran on Sunday 1st or Monday 2nd will not be published till the morning.

[ComplyOrDie]

They'll re rate him as of tomorrow.
Published every tuesday, based on Sunday to Saturday's the previous week.
So any races ran on Sunday 1st or Monday 2nd will not be published till the morning.

I thought this was the case and then next to it it says updated 3rd Jan, so it confused me, which probably isn't too hard to achieve!

[darlojim]

Thought it was worth putting in here but on the 'Only fools love horse racing' podcast with Johnny Dineen as special guest, he says if Gerri colombe turns up at cheltenham they'll likely go for the NHC, he says that what he is told and the fella who told him has 'some idea what hes talking about'

[Lobos]

If true, and it'll be an odd move for what I consider his best Novice chaser, that could seriously fuck with their 66/1 vouchers !!

[Quevega]

Thought it was worth putting in here but on the 'Only fools love horse racing' podcast with Johnny Dineen as special guest, he says if Gerri colombe turns up at cheltenham they'll likely go for the NHC, he says that what he is told and the fella who told him has 'some idea what hes talking about'

Yeah the Gist was that if the ground is typical spring ground then the NH chase would be most likely. As in they think he's all stamina. Which we all kinds knew.
However, he needs to qualify first obviously.
The man he knew was kept vague.