2023 Novice Chasers

[DenmanSacre]

Jumped very well but didn't put much between him and Monmiral after the bend if being super critical. Warwick chase form is a positive for me for Cheltenham as well.

Still think one of the Irish will be better over 2m and the price at the moment is a joke.

Wasn't he 7/2 after his hurdle debut for the Supreme and months later was 5/1 SP for the Supreme? If El Fab, Appreciate it etc are as good as we think they could be, he will be a better price on the day than he is today.

[SeanRock]

The only minor question mark I’d have over Jonbon is his tendency to sweat up & be on his toes before races coupled with his tendency to run freely with the choke out. If something else tried to take him on early they could end up cutting each other’s throats much like the Supreme. The Cheltenham hill has found out a few few free going sorts over the years.

It’s really is nit picking & there probably won’t be anything of Constitution Hill’s standard coming from behind. Just something to consider.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The only minor question mark I’d have over Jonbon is his tendency to sweat up & be on his toes before races coupled with his tendency to run freely with the choke out. If something else tried to take him on early they could end up cutting each other’s throats much like the Supreme. The Cheltenham hill has found out a few few free going sorts over the years.

It’s really is nit picking & there probably won’t be anything of Constitution Hill’s standard coming from behind. Just something to consider.

Step forward Dysart Dynamo........

[Istabraq]

7/4 Jonbon has to up there with one of the worst prices in ante post history surely.
Was a country mile behind Constitution Hill in the Supreme with the only other credible runner on the floor, should have got beat by El Fabiolo at Aintree, wins today and it suddenly a Sprinter Sacre, Douvan and Altior price when the best three that are likely to be in the race are parked up on the other side of the Irish Sea.
7/4 is just madness to me, if any of Sir Gerhard, El Fabiolo, Appreciate It, State Man or Dysart Dynamo come out and impress what happens to the market then ?

[BigChaang]

Well I guess that we are all waiting now for Constitution hill , on Saturday., to Bolster the form of JonBon .
Definitely liked what i saw today , His jumping was good , I thought Monmiral gave him a fair Race .
But he definitely was Superior today. Just need to see who Willies best Contender is now . .

[Eggs]

….Hills go 5/2 Jonbon in their Specials.

[The Giant Bolster]

Step forward Dysart Dynamo........

The Arkle tactics could be interesting given the running styles of some of the contenders. If Mullins turns up with Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo then he could send Dysart off at a strong pace. If he can take it to the line then so be it. If he can't then he might overcook Jonbon and El Fabiolo can come through. How Mullins plays tactics against Jonbon will be fascinating.

[Lobos]

Have watched JB back a couple of times as we all get excited watching it live and perhaps miss things. Still a very nice run and round of jumping but he did Skew one, step at one, got in tight at a couple. Not as clean as Banbridge imo. JB was very controlled though and seems to have grown up a bit.

[Istabraq]

Well I guess that we are all waiting now for Constitution hill , on Saturday., to Bolster the form of JonBon .

Would a comprehensive win and impressive performance really frank the form though BC ?
CH barely came off the bridle and was eased down to win half the straight, a CH win might confirm him to be 2 stone better than Jonbon, but does a 2 stone inferior horse warrant a 7/4 Arkle quote ?
He may well prove to be much better over fences but he would need to be, and also need a few from Ireland to stay hurdling, regress or get injured to be an Arkle contender let alone clear short fav in November…

[Quevega]

Would a comprehensive win and impressive performance really frank the form though BC ?
CH barely came off the bridle and was eased down to win half the straight, a CH win might confirm him to be 2 stone better than Jonbon, but does a 2 stone inferior horse warrant a 7/4 Arkle quote ?
He may well prove to be much better over fences but he would need to be, and also need a few from Ireland to stay hurdling, regress or get injured to be an Arkle contender let alone clear short fav in November…

Sounds like you're inclined to doubt the quality of those in behind CH in the supreme, rather than rate him exceptional.
Probably the logical call.
And I agree the price on Jonbon is too short v the Irish for sure.

But I think we may see the first 175+ rated hurdler for a long time, since your namesake.
He could even hit 180+ if the Irish bring over a couple of 170 rated rivals in March.
This will depend on Honeysuckle and something else emerging to rival her over there.

I hope it happens as it's about time.

[charlie]

Have watched JB back a couple of times as we all get excited watching it live and perhaps miss things. Still a very nice run and round of jumping but he did Skew one, step at one, got in tight at a couple. Not as clean as Banbridge imo. JB was very controlled though and seems to have grown up a bit.

As good as Jonbon looked, I can't help thinking there will be something better out there. Last season Jonbon looked immense on debut, but was slightly underwhelming at Ascot before being walloped in the Supreme. People might say 'take out Constitution Hill and he's a Supreme winner', but he's ran to an RPR of 149 in defeat - that's ordinary compared to previous Supreme winners who have won an Arkle (162, 166, 160 etc). There is no doubt we're talking about a very good horse who is a natural over fences and could improve for them, but he'd have to. He started today with a lofty reputation that he's no doubt enhanced, but for me its always been a reputation built more on Nicky waxing lyrical about him on ITV + being Douvan's full brother over what he actually achieved on a racecourse. Last year he was was bloody lucky to win a Grade 1! People have been quick to comment about today boosting Constitution, but I think it really boosts El Fabiolo. He'd have claimed Jonbon's scalp at Aintree if not for a mistake and he was the less experienced of the two. Of course he was brilliant to watch today, its what we love the sport for, to see horses wing fences like that, but from a betting perspective we're at a time of year when bookies start to take the piss and IMO we have to be brutal in our assessment of these short priced favs and I think you're right to be picky Lobos. It was a three runner affair and he was 2/5. I imagine, and I'm not joking, that Willie would have 5 horses or more that could have won that race by the same time and margin. 7/4 is a joke.

[Saxon Warrior]

Sounds like you're inclined to doubt the quality of those in behind CH in the supreme, rather than rate him exceptional.
Probably the logical call.
And I agree the price on Jonbon is too short v the Irish for sure.

But I think we may see the first 175+ rated hurdler for a long time, since your namesake.
He could even hit 180+ if the Irish bring over a couple of 170 rated rivals in March.
This will depend on Honeysuckle and something else emerging to rival her over there.

I hope it happens as it's about time.

I’ve been waiting almost 40 years for a real top-top 2M Champion Hurdle era, I really rate Constitution Hill.

Very pleased Jonbon seems to be showing what a good race Con.Hill ran at Cheltenham

Its so long since we had a 170+ rated 2M Novice Hurdler, I don’t think it’s fully hit us all between the eyes yet, as to what he could be.

Do hope he trains on, and becomes a 180 hurdler this season, beating top opposition in March.

Imagine taking on Honey, and if they improve through the season, a red-hot multi Grade 1 winning 2 or 3 from Willie’s Vauban, Sir Gerhard and/or State Man.

I hope this division hangs together through the next 4 months, and gives us a Champion Hurdle to savour for a long time.

[FinalFurlong91]

To play devils advocate

el fabiolo had every chance to go past jonbon but he got outbattled, interference or not he got upsides and maybe even headed jonbon before he found enough to win

And Jonbon must've had an incredibly hard race in the Supreme a few weeks before, he and dysart dynamo set a suicidal gallop. El Fabiolo however was fresh and primed.

Was he near his best at Aintree? Perfectly possible he wasn't

But then El Fabiolo is a year younger and less experienced

I'm on both so don't need to chose between them but the point about how hard a race jonbon had in the Supreme before he took on el fabiolo doesn't seem to get mentioned

And he'd have surely run a bigger figure in the Supreme had they not gone so fast, he walked across the line knackered

[Lobos]

......................agree with all that bar I don't want to see Sir G anywhere near a Champion Hurdle this season........or any Hurdle actually.......

[ComplyOrDie]

The other side of that argument is Jonbon had a very hard race at Cheltenham 3 weeks prior to Aintree, I haven’t a penny on Jonbon as he was always a bit short for me. I’m in the El Fabiolo camp!

I feel some people are missing this factor.

All well and good El Fabiolo nearly beating Jonbon, and might have done so had he not fluffed his lines, but he was also going into the race much the fresher animal, and at the end of it all he couldn't go past him, the run in is certainly long enough. I think Jonbon is just a very tough horse, personally. He may lack the ability of Constitution Hill, but then 99% of horses likely will, so I won't hold that against him.

I'm not even that concerned by El Fabiolo against Jonbon, I'm more worried how good Dysart Dynamo might be, if he respects fences more than hurdles. I personally, think he finishes ahead of Jonbon in the Supreme had he not fallen. He's better than Kilcruit and Kilcruit finished close enough to Jonbon. He's just a bit of a loon, so he'll need his head sorted out.

I honestly thought Monmiral was going to get closer to Jonbon than he actually got today. So I'm rating the performance up a bit more for that.