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Am I right in thinking the National Hunt Chase is a Grade 2 and therefore if GDM wins the Nevilles, he'll have to carry a (5lb?) penalty at Cheltenham?
I get there are risks attached to James Du Berlais but I’d say the price is factored into that in comparison with all WPM’s other novices. Can get 20-25/1 for the turners or BANC at this stage.
Knocking his win rate seems very harsh imo considering he’s only run on these shores twice. Chucked in the champion hurdle as a 5 year old when he’d been in the yard a couple of months and then a very good second over 3m to Klassical Dream. His form in France after his first 4 poor runs from 3/4 years old reads 212121212. That includes 2 listed wins, 2 grade 3 wins and 2 grade 1 seconds. Hardly a terrible record imo, add in the fact he’s with WPM, the positive news in the stable tour, if he’s ready to run I’d say when he’s declared I’ll be topping up.
The quality of races JDB was running in plays a part in his win ratio. Also, Footpad was 5/16 over hurdles and he didn’t do too badly as a novice chaser.
Thanks for clarifying Odin. Bit of a bonus for us GDM NH Chase backers if he does win the Nevilles and Willie sees the NH Chase as a penalty kick / the easier option!
….good to see Gentlemansgame with the Beginners Chase entry next week.
Rob Acheson (Robcour) said he was the novice chaser he was most looking forward to this season. Very good hurdles form behind Klassical Dream when last seen, he’s 33-1 in an open-looking BANC which looks an obvious target.
On the downside, he’s had a few ‘niggles’ but Mouse Morris is a trainer who can certainly ready one for a big race.
Thanks for clarifying Odin. Bit of a bonus for us GDM NH Chase backers if he does win the Nevilles and Willie sees the NH Chase as a penalty kick / the easier option!
What's particularly interesting about the BANC is the stranglehold WPM appears to have on the market at this early stage. The top two in the market are both his (MC & CG). It will be interesting to see how they get on at the DRF or in other races prior to DRF. You then have TSL who looks like he'll oppose GDM in the 3m Grade 1. If GDM beats TSL life, then his main rivals are Gerri and JWM. I love the former and he's a big hope of mine, but he wouldn't want spring ground and JWM doesn't look consistent enough over his obstacles. You're then into spray and pray territory, so even now this side of Xmas I'd be fairly confident I've named the BANC winner in this post. That being said, I doubt many would have mentioned L'Homme Presse this time last year, but it feels like the main protagonists are well advertising their credentials. If you have a strong opinion its IMO the best market going. 11/1 the field, make your case and wade in!!
What's particularly interesting about the BANC is the stranglehold WPM appears to have on the market at this early stage. The top two in the market are both his (MC & CG). It will be interesting to see how they get on at the DRF or in other races prior to DRF. You then have TSL who looks like he'll oppose GDM in the 3m Grade 1. If GDM beats TSL life, then his main rivals are Gerri and JWM. I love the former and he's a big hope of mine, but he wouldn't want spring ground and JWM doesn't look consistent enough over his obstacles. You're then into spray and pray territory, so even now this side of Xmas I'd be fairly confident I've named the BANC winner in this post. That being said, I doubt many would have mentioned L'Homme Presse this time last year, but it feels like the main protagonists are well advertising their credentials. If you have a strong opinion its IMO the best market going. 11/1 the field, make your case and wade in!!
I entirely agree that the winner is more thank likely mentioned in your post. And would even go so far as to put a line through JWM as I just don't think he's good enough (and Henry seems obsessed with keeping him to the midtrip). But I would also make a case that there are two British horses who might have a say in the market; Ballygriffincottage and Crystal Glory. Both average hurdlers who have come on for a fence. And it is easy to see why they have come on. Electric at their fences in their respective maidens. Ballygriffincottage had a bit of chatter after his race, but that front running performance from Crystal Glory at Hexham beating a 137 rated horse 20 lengths just oozed class.
Definitely the best market and could be the most competitive ace at the fez.
I entirely agree that the winner is more thank likely mentioned in your post. And would even go so far as to put a line through JWM as I just don't think he's good enough (and Henry seems obsessed with keeping him to the midtrip). But I would also make a case that there are two British horses who might have a say in the market; Ballygriffincottage and Crystal Glory. Both average hurdlers who have come on for a fence. And it is easy to see why they have come on. Electric at their fences in their respective maidens. Ballygriffincottage had a bit of chatter after his race, but that front running performance from Crystal Glory at Hexham beating a 137 rated horse 20 lengths just oozed class.
Definitely the best market and could be the most competitive ace at the fez.
I hope Crystal Glory follows up with a good performance next time. Looked very good first time up.
charlie I wouldn't be so sure you have named the winner in your post, you've only named irish trained horses. Even with the recent Irish domination at cheltenham festivals, this is a race in which british trained horses shouldn't be overlooked and it could be argued they should be where you start when trying to find the winner of the BANC.
charlie I wouldn't be so sure you have named the winner in your post, you've only named irish trained horses. Even with the recent Irish domination at cheltenham festivals, this is a race in which british trained horses shouldn't be overlooked and it could be argued they should be where you start when trying to find the winner of the BANC.
Given 6 of the last 10 runnings have been won by British trained horses you are historically spot on, but I've only named Irish horses for good reason (IMO of course).
Of the top 30 currently quoted in the market, 5 are British trained (Thyme Hill, Monmiral, McFabulous, Gelino Bello and Ballygrifincottage).
I can put a line through Thyme Hill who doesn't jump well enough and Monmiral who will almost certainly 'wait for Aintree' (a Paul Nicholls special). Easily ignored.
I can put a line through McFabulous as he's never run well at Cheltenham and Paul seems keen to avoid Cheltenham with him.
I can put a line through Gelino Bello (who is interesting on paper with shit hot breeding) but he's jumped markedly out to his right twice now which I don't like.
The only one left that is semi interesting is Ballygrifincottage who ran to a good level on debut to be fair. If I had to back one it would be him, but such is the Irish market dominance even if Bally wins the KS Novice Chase (which I think he will) I doubt he'd be shorter that 8 or 10/1, so I'd rather reassess and take a view on him then.
So in short, they are a thoroughly uninspiring bunch over here that are best left ignored IMO.
You can of course go past the first 30 quoted in the market, but I doubt there is anything lurking in there. I suppose Crystal Glory could be interesting at 33's and maybe he'll shorten, but I take a small select ante post team to war and I know horses trained by Nicky Richards are going to be a backable price no matter what they do, so I'd rather he came out and showed me some real class and take 12's, than poke at 33's off the back of less information.
No escaping that 3 of the above are also trained by Paul Nicholls who looks to find any excuse not to run his horses at Cheltenham.
I'm even more confident now than I was in the post you quoted that the BANC is going to Ireland but of course, something could pop up or surprise us.
Given 6 of the last 10 runnings have been won by British trained horses you are historically spot on, but I've only named Irish horses for good reason (IMO of course).
Of the top 30 currently quoted in the market, 5 are British trained (Thyme Hill, Monmiral, McFabulous, Gelino Bello and Ballygrifincottage).
I can put a line through Thyme Hill who doesn't jump well enough and Monmiral who will almost certainly 'wait for Aintree' (a Paul Nicholls special). Easily ignored.
I can put a line through McFabulous as he's never run well at Cheltenham and Paul seems keen to avoid Cheltenham with him.
I can put a line through Gelino Bello (who is interesting on paper with shit hot breeding) but he's jumped markedly out to his right twice now which I don't like.
The only one left that is semi interesting is Ballygrifincottage who ran to a good level on debut to be fair. If I had to back one it would be him, but such is the Irish market dominance even if Bally wins the KS Novice Chase (which I think he will) I doubt he'd be shorter that 8 or 10/1, so I'd rather reassess and take a view on him then.
So in short, they are a thoroughly uninspiring bunch over here that are best left ignored IMO.
You can of course go past the first 30 quoted in the market, but I doubt there is anything lurking in there. I suppose Crystal Glory could be interesting at 33's and maybe he'll shorten, but I take a small select ante post team to war and I know horses trained by Nicky Richards are going to be a backable price no matter what they do, so I'd rather he came out and showed me some real class and take 12's, than poke at 33's off the back of less information.
No escaping that 3 of the above are also trained by Paul Nicholls who looks to find any excuse not to run his horses at Cheltenham.
I'm even more confident now than I was in the post you quoted that the BANC is going to Ireland but of course, something could pop up or surprise us.
You think if PN has a horse he thinks is good enough he will still not run it at the festival ? That correct Charlie??
indications of an issue were there when didn't take up any entries over xmas so sadly not surprised there's now an injury confirmed.
Agreed, although never nice to see fears confirmed.
I don't know if anyone else agrees with me, but SG should be removed from the "Out for the Season" thread as that has not been confirmed yet, however likely it may be
You think if PN has a horse he thinks is good enough he will still not run it at the festival ? That correct Charlie??
Yep. Open up a bottle of something strong, watch the Betfair 2022 Cheltenham preview night and take a shot every time Paul says the phrase 'wait for aintree'.
You'll be off your tits by the end of day 1
I joke, but it's true. Does he have the strength and depth he once had, no, but of his 10 top chasers last year I think Frodon was the only one to go to Cheltenham whilst he saved 7 for Aintree.
WPM had more winners than PN had runners last year. He's always reminding the world the season is not all about Cheltenham so unless he name checks a specific race, backing his are best avoided.
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