2023 Novice Chasers

[YoungHustler]

Arkle
I don’t know if he’d win the Irish Arkle or not.

But Id like all four of Willies to run in it though, it could be a right dust up.

Ive backed El Fab and DD of his, so if they all show up I’d probably look at Appreciate It’s price to win the Irish Arkle-Arkle Double, and if I didn’t like the odds, then leave it,

If he lost the Irish Arkle, then I don’t think he’d win the Cheltenham big one.

If he did win well enough at the DRF then he’d be around Joint-Fav with Jonbon at 7/4 or 2/1 the pair.

I don’t bet a lot in each race with a view of having a book.

I tend to Cashout or reduce my book in the build up to Cheltenham, when the form is solid and known, I’m sure that the DRF will see me shaking a few out, and bringing one or two in.

Turners
James Du Berlais I’ve backed for the Turners, and not the BANC at the moment,

Mighty Potter, James Du Berlais and Appreciate It, are my Turners bets so far.

I would expect to probably be cashing either JDB or AI after the DRF and going with two to the race (all being well)

BANC
The BANC is wide open, you could pick any of around 10 horses or more for that.

Maybe the GB horses have a good chance of continuing a good run in this race again.

Presently I have Gaillard Du Mesnil and Gerri Colombe for this, both at big prices, 40s, 33s, so I’d be hoping at least one of them to keep the fires burning for this race.

I definitely would prefer Gaillard DM to go to the NHC, and I’m probably going to lay off/Cashout some or all of the 40s, at some stage, given his current price in the BANC.

I would think that I would be adding something else, maybe the entries for Warwick’s Grade 2 NovCH over 3M tomorrow (for Saturday) will stir me into action and complete the study and video playback work on the entries, Ballygrifin Cottage or something else over here.

James Du Berlais could be an option here, but their seems to be some though that he pulled hard enough on his debut, and that the mid trip would probably be his next run.

What I would add re the DRF and Irish racing is that

* there is no Grade 1 in Ireland before Cheltenham over 3M now
* the DRF has a 2M and a 2M5F Grade 1 NovCH.

The only other Graded NovCH pre-Cheltenham in Ireland are

15th Jan - Grade 3 Killiney NovCH 2M4F, Punchestown
29th Jan - Grade 3 Novice Chase, 3M Naas
12th Feb - Grade 2 Ten Up, NovCH, 3M1F Navan
4th March - Grade 3 Flying Bolt NovCH, 2M Navan
Excl Mares NovChases

Id hope that James Du Berlais would go for the 2M5F one, at the DRF
Gaillard Du Mesnil could go for it too, as a Grade 1 winner, he’d avoid a penalty in a Grade 2, by running in the Grade 1.

If Minella Crooner doesn’t get entered in one or both of those two 3M+ Graded Novice Chases then he isn’t going to get qualified for the NHC.

Classic Getaway and Minella Cocooner seem to have disappeared since they met 6 weeks ago.
Ive cashed out on both of those, as I wouldn’t trust holding the bets I had at the prices I had, when they’ve missed Christmas and their prices aren’t that much lower than I had them at anyway

This shows there’s only one other Graded Novice Chase over 2M for Saint Roi, El Fav, Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo to go, before Cheltenham, so that’s why I think all four may go to the Irish Arkle, (or at least 3) particularly Saint Roi (as a Grade 1 winner, he won’t go to that Grade 3).

Many thanks for your thoughts Sax. I'm like you in that I don't make a book and will use my own judgement to select 1 to 3 horses who I think are the likely winners.

Jonbon is a very decent winner for me and I really do like his chances and he would be my number 1. I also have Dysart Dynamo who really impressed me with his jumping on debut.I can just envisage DD setting a decent pace with his quick jumping and only Jonbon being able to keep tabs on him and then passing him on the run in. I've got El Fabiolo but only to small stakes and nothing on AI. Depending on what happens in the Irish Arkle, this might change.

Mighty Potter is another very decent winner for me in the Turners so I'm really glad you're planning on keeping him!. I think Gordon thinks the world of this horse and I thought the Drinmore was a really impressive performance in that I thought he won really easily and had loads left at the finish. Jack just pushed him out and didn't have to use his whip. I do also have James Du Berlais but would side with Mighty Potter if I had to only choose one. It's possible they could clash at the DRF which would be another mouth watering clash to go along with the Irish Arkle.

The BANC has been abit of a mess for me and probably for most people! It could well be now a race I leave alone until much nearer the time.

[robith]

I heard the interview slightly differently. The quotes you’ve put there were largely in response to a question about his chase debut specifically, not his overall ability.

When asked about his overall ability, he said he would take anything on with El Fab.

I have to say I have been very confused about how DJ on RTC has been spoken about on here. I saw it after reading the negativity on here, but my impression was he was absolutely glowing about El Fabs

[Saxon Warrior]

I have to say I have been very confused about how DJ on RTC has been spoken about on here. I saw it after reading the negativity on here, but my impression was he was absolutely glowing about El Fabs

Yes he was

[DenmanSacre]

I have to say I have been very confused about how DJ on RTC has been spoken about on here. I saw it after reading the negativity on here, but my impression was he was absolutely glowing about El Fabs

I don't know if Paul watches RTC but DJ could have talked up AI to put more good words in and try to slightly influence him away from EF. The Double Green don't have many good horses in the UK so DJ will want to pick Willie's Double Green horses where he can. As you say, he was glowing about El Fabiolo.

[charlie]

I can just envisage DD setting a decent pace with his quick jumping and only Jonbon being able to keep tabs on him and then passing him on the run in.

You don't need to envisage it YH, just watch the Supreme back from last year

DD will go off like a lunatic and cut his own throat, Jonbon will look all over the winner before vomiting up the hill and being picked up by...........

[ComplyOrDie]

You don't need to envisage it YH, just watch the Supreme back from last year

DD will go off like a lunatic and cut his own throat, Jonbon will look all over the winner before vomiting up the hill and being picked up by...........

Did you not think DD looked much more settled over fences, bearing in mind it was first time out too, so likely to be very keen.

He also jumped lovely. That second fence was ridiculous. I wish there was a side shot of that instead of it being aerial.

[FinalFurlong91]

Did you not think DD looked much more settled over fences, bearing in mind it was first time out too, so likely to be very keen.

He also jumped lovely. That second fence was ridiculous. I wish there was a side shot of that instead of it being aerial.

Il believe he's more settled over fences once iv seem him go down to the start at Cheltenham with the noise and massive crowd

[ComplyOrDie]

Il believe he's more settled over fences once iv seem him go down to the start at Cheltenham with the noise and massive crowd

Haha yeah, fair enough. The DRF would be a big pointer too, not exactly quiet there either.

[charlie]

Did you not think DD looked much more settled over fences, bearing in mind it was first time out too, so likely to be very keen.

He also jumped lovely. That second fence was ridiculous. I wish there was a side shot of that instead of it being aerial.

Yeh he definitely looked more settled over fences, but he needs to do that in proper company and maintain a strong effort before I'm sold.

[Carnage at Taunton]

You don't need to envisage it YH, just watch the Supreme back from last year

DD will go off like a lunatic and cut his own throat, Jonbon will look all over the winner before vomiting up the hill and being picked up by...........

Just watched the Sandown race again.
Jonbon did not mess about!!
Went off at a fair pace, jumped really good and quick on a course that can be testing jumping wise for a novice, and quickened nicely and ran strong up the hill to the line..
Hendo says hes a strong stayer at the distance, and that race showed that to me.
Also, looking back to the Supreme, had he a weakness finishing,imo Kilcruit would have picked him off up the hill,but even though Jonbon had been up with the pace,unlike Kilcruit,he still managed to finish well.

[charlie]

Just watched the Sandown race again.
Jonbon did not mess about!!
Went off at a fair pace, jumped really good and quick on a course that can be testing jumping wise for a novice, and quickened nicely and ran strong up the hill to the line..
Hendo says hes a strong stayer at the distance, and that race showed that to me.
Also, looking back to the Supreme, had he a weakness finishing,imo Kilcruit would have picked him off up the hill,but even though Jonbon had been up with the pace,unlike Kilcruit,he still managed to finish well.

Sandown was another public schooling session at 2/11 at a track that suits those speedy front running types and at no point was the race made difficult for hm. Don't get me wrong, he's a joy to watch over fences - he looks quick, tidy and clearly loves jumping fences, but he still has questions to answer about his minerals when under pressure. We don't have any examples yet over fences because Nicky has placed Jonbon vs 7 rivals in 2 starts where he's gone off 2/7 and 2/11 (a criticism you can fairly level at his market rivals too). The only real examples we have of Jonbon in a fight are from last year. You mention the Supreme - a definite negative for me. Jumps 3 out cruising 7L ahead of a horse we all know isn't that good and he's beat him 2L looking tired and ran to an RPR of 149. He then needed a photo and a loose horse inconveniencing EF to win at Aintree. My point is that its easy for these flashy, leggy, flamboyant types to look awesome in 3 runner races pre spring festivals, but when those big days roll around I don't think Jonbon cut the mustard, but would caveat that by saying he is clearly a much better chaser and could very well be the very best in this division, I just think his price is too short.

[Birds Nest]

Imo i think jonbon has the best 2mile novice form on offer atm, he had pretty impressive time figures for sandown, from 3 out and 2 out. Also non of the irish have beaten anything like boothill either and he also did it at sandown, a galloping track with a half mile long up hill finishing straight which for me dispel any stamina questions. His 164 rpr is pretty high for a horse going into an arkle too, im not saying he'll win but imo he's put up the best performance upto now. This can change of course, but on what i've seen so far it would take something special to beat him ,imo.

[YoungHustler]

You don't need to envisage it YH, just watch the Supreme back from last year

DD will go off like a lunatic and cut his own throat, Jonbon will look all over the winner before vomiting up the hill and being picked up by...........

. Hope that won't be the case but can't wait to find out!

[DenmanSacre]

Imo i think jonbon has the best 2mile novice form on offer atm, he had pretty impressive time figures for sandown, from 3 out and 2 out. Also non of the irish have beaten anything like boothill either and he also did it at sandown, a galloping track with a half mile long up hill finishing straight which for me dispel any stamina questions. His 164 rpr is pretty high for a horse going into an arkle too, im not saying he'll win but imo he's put up the best performance upto now. This can change of course, but on what i've seen so far it would take something special to beat him ,imo.

Is Boothill actually any good though? He couldn't win a handicap hurdle of a mark in the low 130s.

He won a handicap where reasonably 4 of them were turning up to finish out the back and look for a mark reduction. He beat So Scottish who was out of the handicap.

He then came 2nd to Jonbon in effectively a 2 horse race.

He then beat Auconrisque at Kempton who couldn't win a limited handicap chase off 138.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Sandown was another public schooling session at 2/11 at a track that suits those speedy front running types and at no point was the race made difficult for hm. Don't get me wrong, he's a joy to watch over fences - he looks quick, tidy and clearly loves jumping fences, but he still has questions to answer about his minerals when under pressure. We don't have any examples yet over fences because Nicky has placed Jonbon vs 7 rivals in 2 starts where he's gone off 2/7 and 2/11 (a criticism you can fairly level at his market rivals too). The only real examples we have of Jonbon in a fight are from last year. You mention the Supreme - a definite negative for me. Jumps 3 out cruising 7L ahead of a horse we all know isn't that good and he's beat him 2L looking tired and ran to an RPR of 149. He then needed a photo and a loose horse inconveniencing EF to win at Aintree. My point is that its easy for these flashy, leggy, flamboyant types to look awesome in 3 runner races pre spring festivals, but when those big days roll around I don't think Jonbon cut the mustard, but would caveat that by saying he is clearly a much better chaser and could very well be the very best in this division, I just think his price is too short.

We obviously look at the Supreme differently, no worries.
Personally i think had Kilcruit been as close to the pace as Jonbon was, and had tried to compete with Ch, Jonbon would have beaten him a lot further.
Keeping a gallop up trying to beat Ch would take a toll on any horse, but to his credit he did stick on well up the hill despite.
Anyway hes chasing now, and doing it very well so far,and has no Ch to compete against.