2023 Novice Chasers

[ComplyOrDie]

Potter!!! Keep up!

[Arkle]

Would you cashout sir G bets for turners? Opinions?

[Lobos]

Would you cashout sir G bets for turners? Opinions?

Absolutely not

[Lobos]

Stattler used this Grade 3 as a stepping stone to National Hunt Chase success at Cheltenham and three of this year's field have entries for the same race at the festival, including current second favourite Chemical Energy.

Only Grade 1 winner Gaillard Du Mesnil is shorter than him in the market for the longest race of the festival with Paddy Power and Boylesports both making the Gordon Elliott-trained seven-year-old a 9-2 shot. He is only 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

Chemical Energy has not been seen since demolishing Mahler Mission by 61 lengths at Cheltenham in October, form that has been franked since as the runner-up was an impressive winner of a beginners' chase at Navan last Saturday and is as short as 8-1 himself for the National Hunt Chase.

Elliott said of Chemical Energy: "He's taken really well to fences and you couldn't really fault what he did at Cheltenham in October. The National Hunt Chase has been the plan since then and it will be nice to get him back on the track. He's in good form at home and this looks a nice place to come."

If Willie Mullins decides to aim Gaillard Du Mesnil at the Brown Advisory, then Ramillies could turn out to be his number one hope for the National Hunt Chase and Patrick Mullins might ride. He is generally an 8-1 chance for that.

Mullins said: "Ramillies jumps well at home and has always worked well here too, but had been a bit disappointing on the racetrack. He did win on chasing debut at Thurles though, beating Tenzing, and is in good form. He has his chance in what is a classy enough event. If he runs well I’ll be very happy."

[Carnage at Taunton]

Would you cashout sir G bets for turners? Opinions?

After watching him jump, and trainer talking after…..yes I would.

[Bonjers]

Look what happened when he faced proper horses last season at the fez, was out on his feet coming down the hill, and I expect the same.

He had a horrendous bout of ulcers and problems with his hock last spring. I wouldn't be anywhere near as positive as Lobos about him and think he's more likely to be one back for the Paddy Power in November, but he's a lot better than what he showed at Cheltenham/Aintree last year.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He had a horrendous bout of ulcers and problems with his hock last spring. I wouldn't be anywhere near as positive as Lobos about him and think he's more likely to be one back for the Paddy Power in November, but he's a lot better than what he showed at Cheltenham/Aintree last year.

Yep, he looks a different horse now.
That was really good yesterday, and he jumps like that he’s going to run a big race wherever he turns up imo.
Looks like 3 options, so has to be nrnb if fancy him.
Im taking a look.

[darlojim]

He had a horrendous bout of ulcers and problems with his hock last spring. I wouldn't be anywhere near as positive as Lobos about him and think he's more likely to be one back for the Paddy Power in November, but he's a lot better than what he showed at Cheltenham/Aintree last year.

Yeah I think Lobos had one too many drinks last night going off some of his shouts

[Quevega]

He had a horrendous bout of ulcers and problems with his hock last spring. I wouldn't be anywhere near as positive as Lobos about him and think he's more likely to be one back for the Paddy Power in November, but he's a lot better than what he showed at Cheltenham/Aintree last year.

Nicholls has other options in the handicap though and will want Cobden riding, so barring injuries I'd say the Turners looks very likely.

And I think Nicholls has got his bollocks back.
He's always been bullish but I think his balls are filling quicker these days.

Maybe it's the new wife we need to thank.

[Bonjers]

Nicholls has other options in the handicap though and will want Cobden riding, so barring injuries I'd say the Turners looks very likely.

And I think Nicholls has got his bollocks back.
He's always been bullish but I think his balls are filling quicker these days.

Maybe it's the new wife we need to thank.

Poor phrasing on my part. I'd agree entirely he'll be back for the Turners, but I don't think he's of a level to beat an Appreciate It.

I'd see him winning the G2 at Ayr and then being ready for his life off an early 150s mark back again in November.

I'd also agree re the cojones, he's almost at pains to see X will he off to the Festival now. That new feed...

[Quevega]

Poor phrasing on my part. I'd agree entirely he'll be back for the Turners, but I don't think he's of a level to beat an Appreciate It.

I'd see him winning the G2 at Ayr and then being ready for his life off an early 150s mark back again in November.

I'd also agree re the cojones, he's almost at pains to see X will he off to the Festival now. That new feed...

I don't think I read you post properly to be fair
I backed him yesterday as 16-1 each way looked worth having in a race that we may see less than the 8 line up.
I agree that at least one or 2 of the Irish may prove too good, but that Novice handicap is usually a strong form guide for any of the race at the festival and he won it off top weight and did it very easily.
This forum has got a very strong Irish slant and that is the smart option for sure, it's probably a little dangerous to dismiss all of the UK runners though as the Irish don't really mop up the novice chase races in particular.

In the last 10 years.......30 placed horses...


Arkle - 16 v 14 IRE (wins 5 v 5)

Turners- of the 30 placed horses = 15 v 15 placed horses. (wins 7 v 3) - Irish

Brown advisory - 16 v 14 UK (wins 6 v 4) UK



So very close to 50/50 between UK horses and Irish horses.

And whilst the novice hurdlers in Ireland have been stronger, many of the winners and placed horses in the turners and BANC were not stars over hurdles, they improved for a fence.

[Benjy23]

May be slightly hungover thinking here. But he's in the BANC as well, where the Irish challenge looks like it could be a bit weaker than the Turners. Any thoughts of him stepping up to 3 miles?

[AaronLad]

I don't think I read you post properly to be fair
I backed him yesterday as 16-1 each way looked worth having in a race that we may see less than the 8 line up.
I agree that at least one or 2 of the Irish may prove too good, but that Novice handicap is usually a strong form guide for any of the race at the festival and he won it off top weight and did it very easily.
This forum has got a very strong Irish slant and that is the smart option for sure, it's probably a little dangerous to dismiss all of the UK runners though as the Irish don't really mop up the novice chase races in particular.

In the last 10 years.......30 placed horses...


Arkle - 16 v 14 IRE (wins 5 v 5)

Turners- of the 30 placed horses = 15 v 15 placed horses. (wins 7 v 3) - Irish

Brown advisory - 16 v 14 UK (wins 6 v 4) UK



So very close to 50/50 between UK horses and Irish horses.

And whilst the novice hurdlers in Ireland have been stronger, many of the winners and placed horses in the turners and BANC were stars over hurdles, they improved for a fence.

Glad somebody else has said this before me.

[Istabraq]

This forum has got a very strong Irish slant and that is the smart option for sure, it's probably a little dangerous to dismiss all of the UK runners though as the Irish don't really mop up the novice chase races in particular.

In the last 10 years.......30 placed horses...


Arkle - 16 v 14 IRE (wins 5 v 5)

Turners- of the 30 placed horses = 15 v 15 placed horses. (wins 7 v 3) - Irish

Brown advisory - 16 v 14 UK (wins 6 v 4) UK



So very close to 50/50 between UK horses and Irish horses.

,

Is the Irish dominance not more recent than that though Q ?
I'm guessing now but it feels like it's about 6/7 years since UK trainers were competitive, would this alter the numbers ?

[Quevega]

,

Is the Irish dominance not more recent than that though Q ?
I'm guessing now but it feels like it's about 6/7 years since UK trainers were competitive, would this alter the numbers ?

I'm not doing it again, so I'm just going to say No