2023 Novice Chasers

[Dandrew99]

With all the talk of El Fabiolo/James Du Berlais (and Bronny boy), I generally agree that this means that El Fabiolo won't step up in trip. But given that, I've noticed people are saying that means Appreciate It could step up as DD needs 2 miles, but doesn't that end up with the same conflict with Appreciate It and Kilcruit? I'm really starting to wonder if Willie will run all 3 in the Arkle...

[SamuelP]

Paul gets the pick of Willies horses
If he doesn't go for lets say El Fab or James then Daryl gets offered the ride

Cheers guys. Suppose DJ could be jocked off James Du Berlais if Paul decides he's his best Turners horse. But with Paul having so many other good horses to ride and Daryl already riding JDB in his first chase it wouldn't be as likely as other outcomes I guess. So many ways it could go

[ComplyOrDie]

With all the talk of El Fabiolo/James Du Berlais (and Bronny boy), I generally agree that this means that El Fabiolo won't step up in trip. But given that, I've noticed people are saying that means Appreciate It could step up as DD needs 2 miles, but doesn't that end up with the same conflict with Appreciate It and Kilcruit? I'm really starting to wonder if Willie will run all 3 in the Arkle...

I was wondering this too. If you find out the answer, let me know

In all seriousness, could one be held back for maybe Aintree and/or Punchestown? I guess it's a possibility. I'm sure they'll sort themselves out at the DRF.

[FinalFurlong91]

With all the talk of El Fabiolo/James Du Berlais (and Bronny boy), I generally agree that this means that El Fabiolo won't step up in trip. But given that, I've noticed people are saying that means Appreciate It could step up as DD needs 2 miles, but doesn't that end up with the same conflict with Appreciate It and Kilcruit? I'm really starting to wonder if Willie will run all 3 in the Arkle...

Kilcruit may be saved for fairyhouse now he doesn't look like being a top novice

Be his best chase of a grade 1 you'd say

[Exar Essay]

With all the talk of El Fabiolo/James Du Berlais (and Bronny boy), I generally agree that this means that El Fabiolo won't step up in trip. But given that, I've noticed people are saying that means Appreciate It could step up as DD needs 2 miles, but doesn't that end up with the same conflict with Appreciate It and Kilcruit? I'm really starting to wonder if Willie will run all 3 in the Arkle...

I thought Kilcruit was doing his best work (it's all relative!) over the last 1/2 furlong at Limerick. I think 3 miles would suit better than a quick 2m3f. Also, I think Kilcruit slots in where there's a space. There are others way up the pecking order that Willie will want aimed at the right race first.

[Istabraq]

In all seriousness, could one be held back for maybe Aintree and/or Punchestown? I guess it's a possibility. I'm sure they'll sort themselves out at the DRF.

When you have as many darts as Mullins it's impossible to accommodate them in all the races we see as obvious targets, but maybe that's because we're obsessed with Cheltenham, trainers may not be.
My own take is any Irish horse that comes to Aintree is either not good enough to win top races at Punchestown, needs good ground and a flat track, or is targeting the National.
There will be horses who are 'all in' for DRF, that will be their main season target, and how they come out of that will determine whether they head to Cheltenham or are held over to Fairyhouse or Punchestown, of course there are horses who will be specifically aimed at Cheltenham but when he has a dozen G1 (or potential G1) novice chasers they can't all be accommodated in March...

[Quevega]

I'm not in this position, but I wish I was.
Imagine assessing Mullins options at the start of the season and thinking, fuck that, I'll sit back and let them sort themselves out, then consider backing nearer the day.

And then just back the obvious highest rated contender from other top stables in the three divisions.

Jonbon
Might Potter
Thyme Hill

Anybody done this ?
A lot more relaxing surely

[ComplyOrDie]

My own take is any Irish horse that comes to Aintree is either not good enough to win top races at Punchestown, needs good ground and a flat track, or is targeting the National.

So El Fabiolo, for instance, last season, over hurdles?

Could he also be held back for Aintree again?

[Lobos]

Kilcruit has been very in and out his career so far. Wouldn't surprise me at all if won at the DRF just to mess things up again.

[ComplyOrDie]

Anybody done this ?

Absolutely not, how very boring

[Istabraq]

So El Fabiolo, for instance, last season, over hurdles?

Could he also be held back for Aintree again?

I can't remember the circumstances around his non participation at Cheltenham, perhaps he was considered too inexperienced ?
Held over to a soft Aintree G1 where you face one genuine graded horses and the rest handicappers ?
Who knows.
But I think he's proved himself the level needed for an Arkle, it really just depends on how Mullins shuffles the deck and whether he thinks Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It and Saint Roi are better suited to the race.
Again, who knows...

[Lobos]

I still say backing all Mullins top Novice Hurdlers straight after Cheltenham TWAR is the best option. Just slot them into their respective races at Declaration stage and hey presto you end up with one or two top horses in each race at far bigger odds. No bingo pain at all.

[Dandrew99]

I thought Kilcruit was doing his best work (it's all relative!) over the last 1/2 furlong at Limerick. I think 3 miles would suit better than a quick 2m3f. Also, I think Kilcruit slots in where there's a space. There are others way up the pecking order that Willie will want aimed at the right race first.

I agree, but I'm sure Miss Masterson wouldn't want them running against each other. Seems a bit contradictory is all, making the argument that El Fabiolo won't step up because of JDB then saying Appreciate It will

Kilcruit may well miss Cheltenham like FinalFurlong91 mentioned and obviously that point is out the window, but if they do both go then I'd expect them to be split. I really don't see them stepping Kilcruit up to 3 miles either to be honest, which would leave Appreciate It in the Arkle.

[Dandrew99]

I can't remember the circumstances around his non participation at Cheltenham, perhaps he was considered too inexperienced ?
Held over to a soft Aintree G1 where you face one genuine graded horses and the rest handicappers ?
Who knows.
But I think he's proved himself the level needed for an Arkle, it really just depends on how Mullins shuffles the deck and whether he thinks Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It and Saint Roi are better suited to the race.
Again, who knows...

Might be remembering this wrongly... wasn't he entered but missed the boat because of a stone bruise or similar small niggle?

[Brooksie]

So El Fabiolo, for instance, last season, over hurdles?

Could he also be held back for Aintree again?

You know what's coming down the line 'Unfortunately El Fabiolo picked up a slight knock and will miss the festival, it's unfortunate, but he should be alright for Aintree'