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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

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  • Could I trouble someone who is more clued up than me on the breeding side to let me know the distance El Barra would be suited to in terms of breeding?

    14/1 TWAR is not good enough I don’t think.

    thanks & sorry for being cheeky

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    • [QUOTE=Topofthegame2021;n264109]Could I trouble someone who is more clued up than me on the breeding side to let me know the distance El Barra would be suited to in terms of breeding?

      14/1 TWAR is not good enough I don’t think.

      thanks & sorry for being cheeky [/QUOTE

      disclaimer I am not a breeding expert and others can comment with more precision I am sure. But I will give it a stab. The sires best progeny tend to excel between 2 and 2 1/2 miles. The dam is out of Robin Des Champs however who is more an influence for stamina and so on balance I’d say 2 1/2 miles plus.

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      • [QUOTE=Rooster Booster;n264116]
        Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
        Could I trouble someone who is more clued up than me on the breeding side to let me know the distance El Barra would be suited to in terms of breeding?

        14/1 TWAR is not good enough I don’t think.

        thanks & sorry for being cheeky [/QUOTE

        disclaimer I am not a breeding expert and others can comment with more precision I am sure. But I will give it a stab. The sires best progeny tend to excel between 2 and 2 1/2 miles. The dam is out of Robin Des Champs however who is more an influence for stamina and so on balance I’d say 2 1/2 miles plus.
        Thanks for the response Rooster Booster

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        • Ive just got pipesmoker added to the supreme market at 50/1 with hills..anyone think hed go here?

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          • Originally posted by Ray View Post
            Ive just got pipesmoker added to the supreme market at 50/1 with hills..anyone think hed go here?
            They were aiming him at the Ballymore last season so more likely to go there I'd have thought?

            Beaten by Sporting John and Chantry House is solid if not spectacular form, given he's got some decent experience last season, he'd maybe have an advantage over this years crop of novices, but then again, he's got no entries...and not sure why he's been off so long which would be a worry?

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            • Originally posted by Ray View Post
              Ive just got pipesmoker added to the supreme market at 50/1 with hills..anyone think hed go here?
              I'd backed him for the Ballymore & the Bartlett in the summer but cashed him out recently due to a lack of entries and the price still being decent. Will probably be backing again if he gets an entry.

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              • Yeh id like to see an entry, he was pulled out of the race t cheltenham in october against champagnesuperover and not seen since..i just added him as a pottential hout as he was mentioned nucely in hendos stable tour

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                • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                  Asked more than once for you to go to the avatar thread with no luck....

                  So I've found a German Shepherd hurdling a garden fence for you.
                  I love how much it bothers you when posters are without an avatar Kev

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                  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    Micro Manage - odds on for the 12:00 at Leop to kick off Christmas.

                    Just looking at Mullins' runners in that race.


                    2011 - Midnight Game 11/10 (1st) - 15th in Cinder's and Ashes' Supreme at 18/1 (My first ever live festival race )
                    2012 - Urano (2nd) 8/5 - Didn't run at Cheltenham
                    2013 - Daneking 5/2 (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
                    2014 - Alvisio Ville 1/2 (1st) - 7th in Douvan's Supreme at 20/1
                    2015 - Beau Mome 7/4 (4th) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
                    2016 - Bunk Off Early 7/4 - (1st) - 12th in Labaik's Supreme at 12/1
                    2017 - Antey 8/1 - (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
                    2018 - Klassical Dream 5/2 (1st) - 1st in Supreme at 6/1
                    2019 - Fils Spiritual 3/1 (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham



                    So what does that tell us?
                    • He's never had more than 1 runner in this race.
                    • Won 4 of the last 9 runnings
                    • 8 of the 9 finished top 3
                    • 100% of the winners went on to run in the Supreme.
                    • If the horses don't win, they won't be going to the festival
                    • Only Klassical Dream was the shortest priced runner for Mullins in the Supreme

                    Given the profile, we can assume Willie is checking to see he's good enough to go...and we can assume, if he wins, it'll be the Supreme, given that in almost 10 years, he's only sent winners, and they've all ended up in the same race.

                    However, bar Klassical Dream, he's had more fancied runners, so is this where he sends his best novice? Probably not... Klassical Dream won this nicely, then had another race where he just touched off Aramon. There was a bit of uncertainty about where he'd run too and he wasn't the most popular Mullins runner, he didn't go off favourite although was single figures.

                    I've updated my diary with what I've done, but best place to discuss him is this thread.
                    That is the end of Micro Manage's festival hopes IMO

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                    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                      That is the end of Micro Manage's festival hopes IMO
                      Agreed - jumped quite nicely on the whole although he did clatter one. Nothing special I don’t think

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                      • Galopin Des Champs form is looking stronger by the week.

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                        • That was pretty underwhelming by Micro Manage, emptied when challenged and did look much of a battler. Another antepost hope bites the dust.

                          There have been so many disappointing debut in the 2 mild novice hurdle division so far, it’s not looking a vintage crop

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                          • He looked slow to me

                            When the sprint for home started he just didn't have the gears

                            Hopefully we see him over further next time

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                            • Tbf Patrick said he probably needs further anyway. Absolutely fine for those on any race, but the Supreme is likely dead in the water.

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                              • ....50-1 available for Micro Manage in the Supreme.

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