Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Middle_Of_March]

Sky go 6/4 NRNB. That looks awfully big to me. In fact with the new information after his win yesterday and TTL losing as well, and the fact that it’s NRNB, the 6/4 now looks a better price I’d suggest that the 3/1 was a month ago (and I liked that too).

If I wasn’t confident that the bookies will have him in the boosts plenty of times in the next month, I’d have some more on at 6/4 NRNB

For about the 3rd or 4th time in the last month I’ll say it.. this is just a terrible terrible terrible renewal. Awful. If he can’t beat this lot, I’ll be bloody disappointed in the race.

Who will he have to beat to win this? Ballyadam who’s already beat twice? Metier who to me is that price by default for the race being so poor and winning a Grade 1 in name only. And who will be beat in the Betfair hurdle if he runs. Perhaps a Triumph contender could switch here to make it interesting (like the year Fakir Doudaries came here and went off fav). Appreicate It will spread eagle them down the hill and be far too strong up it. 6 lengths imo.

[opatcho]

Appreciate It is going to take an awful lot of money into that first race, will cheer him on for those on him but I shalt be.
It boat has sailed, for me anyway, and not being sucked it on a 6/4 shot for the first race of the meeting.

[Nortons who]

Also regarding Metier. Subject to the weather we shall see on Saturday in the Betfair Hurdle if he is in good shape and whether the Tolworth / Betfair Hurdle is part of a Metioric rise (sorry couldn't resist...) culminating in the Supreme. If he bombs on Saturday then I'm pretty sure that Appreciate It will shorten further.

After Saturday, what other recognised trials / races are there which could spit out a likely Supreme winner ? Still waiting on an entry for Fly Smart but time must be running out now surely and with Appreciate It firmly in the box seat maybe Willie will be in no rush to invite Fly Smart to the Supreme party anyway.

[Moby123]

Sky go 6/4 NRNB. That looks awfully big to me. In fact with the new information after his win yesterday and TTL losing as well, and the fact that it’s NRNB, the 6/4 now looks a better price I’d suggest that the 3/1 was a month ago (and I liked that too).

If I wasn’t confident that the bookies will have him in the boosts plenty of times in the next month, I’d have some more on at 6/4 NRNB

For about the 3rd or 4th time in the last month I’ll say it.. this is just a terrible terrible terrible renewal. Awful. If he can’t beat this lot, I’ll be bloody disappointed in the race.

Who will he have to beat to win this? Ballyadam who’s already beat twice? Metier who to me is that price by default for the race being so poor and winning a Grade 1 in name only. And who will be beat in the Betfair hurdle if he runs. Perhaps a Triumph contender could switch here to make it interesting (like the year Fakir Doudaries came here and went off fav). Appreicate It will spread eagle them down the hill and be far too strong up it. 6 lengths imo.

Here's one left field that could improve into contention. Cadzand, who runs in the Betfair Hurdle and will go very close off 138 IMO.
If it wins well then it could certainly be a contender. Needs to find 10lbs to be challenging for the places but the form of it's defeat of Christopher Wood last time out certainly got a nice boost at the weekend.

It's had three hurdles races and improved it's RPR by 10 each time, and in beating Christopher Wood last time it led at the last and was strong through the line.
They have set it up for the Betfair Hurdle and I'd imagine the County next stop but if winning on Saturday then they will have to have a serious look at this weak looking Supreme, especially with Third Time Lucki disappointing yesterday.

I think it's a good bet on Saturday in it's own right, but will also look to add the win today and at Cheltenham specials.

[charlie]

Purely as cover added Bob Olinger here @ 12/1 NRNB. Fully expect him to go Ballymore, but I don't want to get stung and I thought he should be 5/1 NRNB so 12/1 just made sense.

[Nortons who]

Here's one left field that could improve into contention. Cadzand, who runs in the Betfair Hurdle and will go very close off 138 IMO.
If it wins well then it could certainly be a contender. Needs to find 10lbs to be challenging for the places but the form of it's defeat of Christopher Wood last time out certainly got a nice boost at the weekend.

It's had three hurdles races and improved it's RPR by 10 each time, and in beating Christopher Wood last time it led at the last and was strong through the line.
They have set it up for the Betfair Hurdle and I'd imagine the County next stop but if winning on Saturday then they will have to have a serious look at this weak looking Supreme, especially with Third Time Lucki disappointing yesterday.

I think it's a good bet on Saturday in it's own right, but will also look to add the win today and at Cheltenham specials.

Moby123


Don't disagree at all that Cadzand stands a good chance in the Betfair Hurdle or the County but possibly not in both if he wins / places in the Betfair, as the likely hike in OR could scupper that.

Re the Supreme, the form line you mention with Christopher Wood was something I looked at before backing CW for the County at 100-1 (now into 20-1 after Saturday but he too will have blown a good mark for the County) but CW was giving Cadzand 12lbs at Kempton for 3.5 lengths.

I realise you said he needs to find 10lbs and maybe he can but realistically he will need to find more than combined on Saturday and in the Supreme to be competitive in the Supreme.

I like Cadzand a lot but for the County, so personally I would rather he stays at home on Saturday

[Kevloaf]

?280 to lay at 2/1 on the exchange.

You taking him on?




The Appreciate It 'haters' from pre DRF seem quiet?

Hoping for a massive run from Metier I assume? Or hoping he doesn't run in the Betfair Hurdle to "improve his chance" ?



Rock solid fav. Take him on just to be different....then moan that people fancy him! Of course we do, he's the best of the Irish

[germanshepherd]

You taking him on?




The Appreciate It 'haters' from pre DRF seem quiet?

Hoping for a massive run from Metier I assume? Or hoping he doesn't run in the Betfair Hurdle to "improve his chance" ?



Rock solid fav. Take him on just to be different....then moan that people fancy him! Of course we do, he's the best of the Irish

No just pointing out that 11/8 isn't relevant when you can bet 2/1 on the exchange. I'd take him on at 11/8 now but that's not his price on the exchange. He'll probably be 7/4 on the day.

[Kevloaf]

No just pointing out that 11/8 isn't relevant when you can bet 2/1 on the exchange. I'd take him on at 11/8 now but that's not his price on the exchange. He'll probably be 7/4 on the day.

It's kind of relevant, people will still back horses without the exchange?

2/1 not value....and you'd lay him, but wouldn't lay 11/8.... you planning to lay the 7/4?

Whats your view on what price he should be or will be?





Just FWIW as I see my tone will come across brash, I think he's short right now... he's shorter than Douvan was, and although I think he's "solid" and the most solid "since Douvan", I still think Douvan was a better bet given how fucking bullish they were.


With Apprecaite It, they're just saying what we've seen....he keeps delivering, so they're doing it....

[germanshepherd]

It's kind of relevant, people will still back horses without the exchange?

2/1 not value....and you'd lay him, but wouldn't lay 11/8.... you planning to lay the 7/4?

Whats your view on what price he should be or will be?





Just FWIW as I see my tone will come across brash, I think he's short right now... he's shorter than Douvan was, and although I think he's "solid" and the most solid "since Douvan", I still think Douvan was a better bet given how fucking bullish they were.


With Apprecaite It, they're just saying what we've seen....he keeps delivering, so they're doing it....

I said I'd lay 11/8 now didn't say I'd lay 2/1. I don't think there's much value in 2/1 now I think BSP will be between 13/8 and 7/4.

[Kevloaf]

I said I'd lay 11/8 now didn't say I'd lay 2/1. I don't think there's much value in 2/1 now I think BSP will be between 13/8 and 7/4.

Well I can't see your diary to see how you make money at the game... it looks very small margins though at the prices we're talking about. 2/1 to 11/8 and the answer in in between?


Will you lay him on the day at 7/4?

What would you fancy to beat him?


I'm not disagreeing he's short to lay now, as a system that's solid enough....but what's ya point spot?

[germanshepherd]

Well I can't see your diary to see how you make money at the game... it looks very small margins though at the prices we're talking about. 2/1 to 11/8 and the answer in in between?


Will you lay him on the day at 7/4?

What would you fancy to beat him?


I'm not disagreeing he's short to lay now, as a system that's solid enough....but what's ya point spot?

Point is he might be 11/8 with sportsbooks but he's 2/1 on the exchange.

Would I be laying 7/4? No. Don't need to lay him and I think he'll win anyway.

[Kevloaf]

Point is he might be 11/8 with sportsbooks but he's 2/1 on the exchange.

Would I be laying 7/4? No. Don't need to lay him and I think he'll win anyway.

What would you lay him at?

I'd noy lay until about 5/1

[Pendil1111]

I worked it out earlier, I have the Irish winning 23

What prices GB v Ireland at the festival this year ?

[jono]

I can't help but feel if you take out Appreciate Its Christmas run out of the equation then there would have been much more made about his win.
Given the performances that we saw the day before. The form of Willie Mullins and Paul Townend. The fact he was backed off the boards into 1/3.
Everything pointed to a repeat performance and him putting on a show. It didn't quite match up, but take nothing away from Sunday. It was still a big run.
For me the second best piece of 2 mile form we have this season. With the best being his Christmas win.
Ballyadam closed to gap, but it still wasn't enough.
Granted I would be even more confident about him over a longer trip, but he's racking up serious form over 2 miles.

Obviously NRNB skews things slightly in terms of an accurate representation but you only have to look at the Supreme market to see the unlikely runners at the forefront of the market.

Appreciate It
Metier
Ballyadam
Kilcruit
Zanahiyr
Bob Olinger
My Drogo?
French Aseel
Dreal Deal
Blue Lord
Ganapathi
Bareback Jack
Sir Gerhard
Thedevilscoachman
Teahupoo
Jonbon
Gauloise

You never know what can happen on the day.
But for me he's put in the best 2 pieces of form on offer by some margin going into the race at this point.
And looking back in one / two plus seasons time, he'll be by some way the best horse of the lot, by some margin.

I also agree that Blue Lord at 20/1 EW looks a decent price following yesterdays result, especially if you were looking at the race afresh.