Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Pendil]

I'm slightly cooling on appreciate it for this tbh

I was gutted when he bolted up and only having him backed for the ballymore

But with ballyadam running no race what has he really beaten

Irascible is very inexperienced and keskonrisk looks like he needs further and his trainer is in awful form

Don't see either of those as being close to grade 1 horses right at this stage of their careers

Theres just that lingering thought in my mind that he's a 3 mile ptp and 2m4f bumper winner and that he will be better suited by the ballymore

Wouldnt surprise me at all if he got picked up by a faster horse just like in the bumper in the last furlong

Its just figuring out what to take him on with that I cant get my head around

Re Keskonrisk I have been wondering the same - what is going on with JOB. 1 win from 43 runs over Christmas and the New Year

[Run4Home]

Appreciate It looks obviously now a really strong favourite at the moment.

Guess the only doubt is the turn of foot at 2 miles - we saw what Ferny did to him last season in the closing stages just had too much speed. Granted we don't likely have another Ferny in the Supreme as of yet anyway

Guess Lep in Feb will tell us more ; still time for him to move up in trip even though it does look likely the Supreme at this stage

[Topofthegame2021]

complete long shot. Did anyone take note of Mr Coldstone’s run on New Year’s Day @ Tramore?

does anyone have any thoughts on where he’ll end up?

[FinalFurlong91]

Re Keskonrisk I have been wondering the same - what is going on with JOB. 1 win from 43 runs over Christmas and the New Year

After a brilliant flat season his jumps string just hasn't got going at all

Could have some very talented very well handicapped novice hurdles come the spring

[DeeBee]

I could be wrong but I’m sure I read somewhere (possibly on here) that the death of Sir Erec had caused a lot of discomfort in the camp and they were possibly going to ease out of jumps training?

[Quevega]

I could be wrong but I’m sure I read somewhere (possibly on here) that the death of Sir Erec had caused a lot of discomfort in the camp and they were possibly going to ease out of jumps training?

He's definitely got his mind on other things/plans I reckon.

[ToniC]

Not sure how much the unfortunate incident with sir Eric affected the decision but I believe it is confirmed he’s winding down his NH operation. Hardly a surprise given who he is & the money involved with the other code, but I’d hoped he’d have given it a few more years.

[Jorvik]

Disclaimer: As ever I have mainly done this for my own amusement, if you're looking for posts from people who actually know what they're talking about then there are plenty of them elsewhere.

This year increasingly feels like the year Summerville Boy won. The more I look at Metier, the more I think, why not?! Re-watch his Ascot and Sandown runs, they don't look flashy but they do look tough, he runs on well from the final hurdle. Appreciate It grabs the headlines, particularly with his last run due to the names in behind, but compare either the Ascot v Leopardstown run (soft, around 2m) or Sandown v Cork (Heavy, 2m) then Metier fairs more than ok on timings and visuals. All four are pretty fair galloping tracks. Watch back the 2020 Champion Bumper and it's not hugely difficult to imagine Metier finding that bit extra.

Times aren't the be-all and end-all in racing full stop, never mind 2m over obstacles, but I don't see harm in them playing a part in the formation of an opinion. I've only included other races that have the same going descriptions as the races our protagonists were involved with at the same course, and of course same going descriptions on different days should also be taken with am enormous pinch of salt, but anyway:

2020/21 season
Cork 2m hurdle winners (Heavy, 9 hurdles)
Ganapathi, 4min 6.7sec
Take All, 4m 11s
Appreciate It, 4m 12.5s
Thedevilscoachman, 4m 16.7s

Leopardstown 2m hurdle winners (Soft, 8 hurdles)
Sharjah, 3min 56.4sec
Get My Drift, 3m 57s
Wide Receiver, 3m 58.4s
Dysart Diamond, 3m 58.5s
Appreciate It, 4m 7.1s
Master McShee, 4m 8.1s
Zanahiyr, 4m 9.6s
French Aseel, 4m11.8s

Ascot 1m 7 1/2f hurdle winners (Soft, 8 hurdles)
Metier, 3min 48.77sec
Buzz, 3m, 49.18s
My Drogo, 3m 51.04s

Sandown, 2m hurdle winners (Heavy, 8 hurdles)
Metier, 4min 10.3sec
Guard Your Dreams, 4m 13.3s
Benson, 4m 14.26s
Hudson De Grugy, 4m 16.8s
Fifty Ball, 4m 18.79s
Elham Valley, 4m 20.56s
Golden Boy Grey, 4m 27.28s

[Quevega]

Good stuff Jorvik.
I might be wrong, but I think they slightly change the course (move a few rails about) at Leopardstown over the Christmas festival.
Something to do with the home bend, and other sections, but I may be getting it mixed up with another track.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Topofthegame..........I was impressed with Mr Coldstone and duly backed him for supreme but am a tad worried that the county might grab him!!

[ComplyOrDie]

Ganapathi will be interesting should he end up in the declaration for the Moscow Flyer or at the DRF.

Will likely avoid Appreciate It until the festival too, should he be on the boat also.

[Topofthegame2021]

Topofthegame..........I was impressed with Mr Coldstone and duly backed him for supreme but am a tad worried that the county might grab him!!

I’d be all over him for the county. Same race Saint Roi won last year. He would need 3 runs over hurdles before he got his mark however. He has only had 1. Can’t see them getting 2 in before Cheltenham

[Outlaw]

Good stuff Jorvik.
I might be wrong, but I think they slightly change the course (move a few rails about) at Leopardstown over the Christmas festival.
Something to do with the home bend, and other sections, but I may be getting it mixed up with another track.

All the Irish courses are guesses and seemingly change far more than they should hence Mr Rowlands moaning on twitter the other day, he does have a point in fairness if things are to be recorded accurately in anything other than literal distances beaten.

[Kevloaf]

I'm a little surprised people are looking to find something to beat Appreciate It.

The only horse we've ever seen do him for speed is out injured and vibes are they thought Appreciate It was a better horse going in to that race and it was a shock he was beaten.

I've been of the opinion (and feel it's vindicated) that he'd improve even more over hurdles. I believe he'd have beaten Ferny Hollow this season over any distance.

He's the most solid Supreme favourite since Douvan. The main challenger is Metier and then it's 16/1 Ballyadam 3rd fav, who he's soundly walloped last time.

There are no chinks in his armour for me and talk of him getting done for speed is moot for me, as they know more about him now. They can make all if they wanted to, nothing is coming past him. I think they'll just be handy though.



I still think he'd be even more impressive in the Ballymore though.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm a little surprised people are looking to find something to beat Appreciate It.

The only horse we've ever seen do him for speed is out injured and vibes are they thought Appreciate It was a better horse going in to that race and it was a shock he was beaten.

I've been of the opinion (and feel it's vindicated) that he'd improve even more over hurdles. I believe he'd have beaten Ferny Hollow this season over any distance.

He's the most solid Supreme favourite since Douvan. The main challenger is Metier and then it's 16/1 Ballyadam 3rd fav, who he's soundly walloped last time.

There are no chinks in his armour for me and talk of him getting done for speed is moot for me, as they know more about him now. They can make all if they wanted to, nothing is coming past him. I think they'll just be handy though.



I still think he'd be even more impressive in the Ballymore though.

Yeah, I've given up trying to get him beat, I'm now looking for place value tbh. Horses I think have the possibility to shorten, that could hit the frame, or give me an alternative should something happen to Appreciate It either before the festival or during the race (as uncommon as these things are I like to take them into account).

I don't think he's in Douvan's league myself, although he is probably likely as good, if not slightly better, than the 2nd to Douvan in the Supreme, Shaneshill. Hopefully he goes the same route as Shaneshill too, and ends up in the RSA the following season!

To think at the beginning of the season I thought he could be one for the Bartlett Then again, I thought Willie would have a better selections of novice hurdlers to choose from also! Glad I cashed out Ballymore some time back and went down the any race route