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Triumph Hurdle 2021

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  • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
    I think Gordon is going to be very tempted to put Zanahiyr in the Supreme now.

    He has a line on everything in Ireland, and also most horses in England through Duffle Coat, and I'd say he'll be pretty confident that both Zanahiyr and Quilixios are ahead of everything. He has those two plus Duffle Coat for the race, and does he really need to go in three handed? Does he want a one two in the Triumph when he may be able to take out the Supreme as well.

    Ballyadam looks more than likely to chase Appreciate It home in the Supreme. And while he was closer at Leopardstown yesterday, and he could get closer with a cleaner round of jumping, I'm not sure he can turn it around. However based on comparative times from Quilixios to Appreciate It, they would be relatively close with the four year old allowance. The trouble is Quilixios isn't a novice because he won in March in France.

    However Zanahiyr is. Elliott has said Zanahiyr is all about speed, and Quilixios is more of a stayer. Well if he wanted to split them and he thinks Zanahiyr is ahead in the pecking order at home, the 7lbs he'd receive from Appreciate It puts him very close on that literal line from Quilixios yesterday. Plus Zanhiyr would be suited by the old course on Tuesday, and Quilixos the new much stiffer course on Friday. He also has two feasible darts to fire at Appreciate It, and two feasible darts to fine at The Triumph.

    Something like this has clearly been on their mind, because there have been noises previously about needing to split uo the juveniles, with both the Mares Novice Hurdle and the Supreme being mentioned as races under consideration. And I think the caomparative times yesterday will encourage them to go for it if they genuinely believe Zanahiyr is ahead of Quilixios. They surely must think they have a chance of toppling Appreciate It with him.

    Also if Zanahiyr goes to the Supreme it opens up the possibility of Ballyadam going to the Ballymore Hurdle. Given Appreciate It already rates ahead of Bob Ollinger after putting him away tidily, and everyone had assumed that Ballyadam would be better over further, surely it's a gnenuine possibility as they make Festival plans. At the very least you'd think it'll be discussed, particularly on breeding you'd expect him to benefit for a step up in trip. And Gordon doesn't appear to have anything else for the Ballymore.

    So what has been assumed so far is Zanahiyr and Quilixios 1-2 in the Triumph, and Ballyadam a place in the Supreme, but a switch in targets genuinely opens up the possibility of winning all three races. They have to try don't they?
    This came up last night, and Skysthelimit had what I thought was a great idea...


    #912

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Kautostar View Post

      Or risk throwing away a Cheltenham winner and end up with nothing. Can’t see him switching unless something happens to appreciate it
      Not if he thinks Quilixios wins.

      The nrnb treble is 624/1. Where's the harm in tucking the bet away just in case, when you know they'll have to discuss it?
      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

        This came up last night, and Skysthelimit had what I thought was a great idea...


        #912
        Add in Ballyadam in the Ballymore too in a separate nrnb treble Kev.
        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
          I think Gordon is going to be very tempted to put Zanahiyr in the Supreme now.

          He has a line on everything in Ireland, and also most horses in England through Duffle Coat, and I'd say he'll be pretty confident that both Zanahiyr and Quilixios are ahead of everything. He has those two plus Duffle Coat for the race, and does he really need to go in three handed? Does he want a one two in the Triumph when he may be able to take out the Supreme as well.

          Ballyadam looks more than likely to chase Appreciate It home in the Supreme. And while he was closer at Leopardstown yesterday, and he could get closer with a cleaner round of jumping, I'm not sure he can turn it around. However based on comparative times from Quilixios to Appreciate It, they would be relatively close with the four year old allowance. The trouble is Quilixios isn't a novice because he won in March in France.

          However Zanahiyr is. Elliott has said Zanahiyr is all about speed, and Quilixios is more of a stayer. Well if he wanted to split them and he thinks Zanahiyr is ahead in the pecking order at home, the 7lbs he'd receive from Appreciate It puts him very close on that literal line from Quilixios yesterday. Plus Zanhiyr would be suited by the old course on Tuesday, and Quilixos the new much stiffer course on Friday. He also has two feasible darts to fire at Appreciate It, and two feasible darts to fine at The Triumph.

          Something like this has clearly been on their mind, because there have been noises previously about needing to split uo the juveniles, with both the Mares Novice Hurdle and the Supreme being mentioned as races under consideration. And I think the caomparative times yesterday will encourage them to go for it if they genuinely believe Zanahiyr is ahead of Quilixios. They surely must think they have a chance of toppling Appreciate It with him.

          Also if Zanahiyr goes to the Supreme it opens up the possibility of Ballyadam going to the Ballymore Hurdle. Given Appreciate It already rates ahead of Bob Ollinger after putting him away tidily, and everyone had assumed that Ballyadam would be better over further, surely it's a gnenuine possibility as they make Festival plans. At the very least you'd think it'll be discussed, particularly on breeding you'd expect him to benefit for a step up in trip. And Gordon doesn't appear to have anything else for the Ballymore.

          So what has been assumed so far is Zanahiyr and Quilixios 1-2 in the Triumph, and Ballyadam a place in the Supreme, but a switch in targets genuinely opens up the possibility of winning all three races. They have to try don't they?
          Can't see it myself. Obviously I'm being a slightly bit bias (understatement ) as money is down at 33's, including some multiples, but the yard money is down on Zanahiyr (the early exchange money came plenty more than it did for Quilixios), surely there is more chance something like Duffle Coat goes Supreme as opposed to the the favourite of the Triumph. It would be a bizarre move, IMO, to move your best chance in a particular race just because you are mob handed.

          It's funny they mention Quilixios as more of a stayer, as it looked to me as though Saint Sam was ever so slightly coming back to Quilixios again towards the end of the race over the weekend, almost staying on better than Quilixios, albeit Quilixios still done it comfortably enough.

          Does Gordon really need to force one into the Supreme?

          Even if he did switch him it's absolutely no guarantee he wins the Supreme, and what if something were to happen to Quilixios, either pre-race or during, he's gone from having two outstanding chances in the Triumph to bugger all anywhere. It just wouldn't and doesn't make sense to me.

          Comment


          • What Gordon want's and two owners want is success and if one owner tastes success at the expense of the other by suggesting they move their target is not great for keeping owners in the future, Cheveley already has it's own stud and Gordon is helping the Morans to build a Stud by acquiring mares on their behalf,as much as it's not his ideal it's the owners that pay the bills.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

              Can't see it myself. Obviously I'm being a slightly bit bias (understatement ) as money is down at 33's, including some multiples, but the yard money is down on Zanahiyr (the early exchange money came plenty more than it did for Quilixios), surely there is more chance something like Duffle Coat goes Supreme as opposed to the the favourite of the Triumph. It would be a bizarre move, IMO, to move your best chance in a particular race just because you are mob handed.

              It's funny they mention Quilixios as more of a stayer, as it looked to me as though Saint Sam was ever so slightly coming back to Quilixios again towards the end of the race over the weekend, almost staying on better than Quilixios, albeit Quilixios still done it comfortably enough.

              Does Gordon really need to force one into the Supreme?

              Even if he did switch him it's absolutely no guarantee he wins the Supreme, and what if something were to happen to Quilixios, either pre-race or during, he's gone from having two outstanding chances in the Triumph to bugger all anywhere. It just wouldn't and doesn't make sense to me.
              Don't get me wrong CoD I think it's a 10% chance of it happening. There is a line now from Gordon's juveniles to Appreciate It though, so they have to talk about what might happen if they shuffled the pack.

              The bet is a cover bet with nrnb just in case.
              Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                Can't see it myself. Obviously I'm being a slightly bit bias (understatement ) as money is down at 33's, including some multiples, but the yard money is down on Zanahiyr (the early exchange money came plenty more than it did for Quilixios), surely there is more chance something like Duffle Coat goes Supreme as opposed to the the favourite of the Triumph. It would be a bizarre move, IMO, to move your best chance in a particular race just because you are mob handed.

                It's funny they mention Quilixios as more of a stayer, as it looked to me as though Saint Sam was ever so slightly coming back to Quilixios again towards the end of the race over the weekend, almost staying on better than Quilixios, albeit Quilixios still done it comfortably enough.

                Does Gordon really need to force one into the Supreme?

                Even if he did switch him it's absolutely no guarantee he wins the Supreme, and what if something were to happen to Quilixios, either pre-race or during, he's gone from having two outstanding chances in the Triumph to bugger all anywhere. It just wouldn't and doesn't make sense to me.
                Its rather odd with Duffle Coat as he is entered in The Ballymore and AB as well as the Triumph but no Supreme entry

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Pendil View Post

                  Its rather odd with Duffle Coat as he is entered in The Ballymore and AB as well as the Triumph but no Supreme entry
                  Taken 25 nrnb for Ballymore, would not be at all surprised if Duffle ends up there.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Pendil View Post

                    Its rather odd with Duffle Coat as he is entered in The Ballymore and AB as well as the Triumph but no Supreme entry
                    Didn't even realise he had no Supreme entry

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

                      Taken 25 nrnb for Ballymore, would not be at all surprised if Duffle ends up there.
                      Cashed out my 33/1 DC earlier for the Ballymore with b365 to get on 25/1 NRNB with Sky

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                        Can't see it myself. Obviously I'm being a slightly bit bias (understatement ) as money is down at 33's, including some multiples, but the yard money is down on Zanahiyr (the early exchange money came plenty more than it did for Quilixios), surely there is more chance something like Duffle Coat goes Supreme as opposed to the the favourite of the Triumph. It would be a bizarre move, IMO, to move your best chance in a particular race just because you are mob handed.

                        It's funny they mention Quilixios as more of a stayer, as it looked to me as though Saint Sam was ever so slightly coming back to Quilixios again towards the end of the race over the weekend, almost staying on better than Quilixios, albeit Quilixios still done it comfortably enough.

                        Does Gordon really need to force one into the Supreme?

                        Even if he did switch him it's absolutely no guarantee he wins the Supreme, and what if something were to happen to Quilixios, either pre-race or during, he's gone from having two outstanding chances in the Triumph to bugger all anywhere. It just wouldn't and doesn't make sense to me.
                        They will both run in the Triumph, and then we can find out who is the best on the track and the ground.

                        Nothing is a certainty, and they both have a real good chance, don’t they?

                        I’m not surprised that Zanahiyr, as a mid-trip flat horse, having four flat runs before hurdling, shows more at home than Qulixios, who started one hurdle race before joining Gordon.

                        If it’s soft/heavy still in five weeks time then their SPs may get closer.

                        So far the race form stats over hurdles say are they are both unbeaten and win races easily against all opposition.

                        Quilixios
                        HRI rating 144
                        Racing Post Rating 144
                        Topspeed 128

                        Zanahiyr
                        HRI rating 145
                        Racing Post Rating 146
                        Topspeed 112

                        Currently on the track they are very similar.

                        I am hoping that it’s going to be a great spectacle on Festival Friday.
                        "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                          They will both run in the Triumph, and then we can find out who is the best on the track and the ground.

                          Nothing is a certainty, and they both have a real good chance, don’t they?

                          I’m not surprised that Zanahiyr, as a mid-trip flat horse, having four flat runs before hurdling, shows more at home than Qulixios, who started one hurdle race before joining Gordon.

                          If it’s soft/heavy still in five weeks time then their SPs may get closer.

                          So far the race form stats over hurdles say are they are both unbeaten and win races easily against all opposition.

                          Quilixios
                          HRI rating 144
                          Racing Post Rating 144
                          Topspeed 128

                          Zanahiyr
                          HRI rating 145
                          Racing Post Rating 146
                          Topspeed 112

                          Currently on the track they are very similar.

                          I am hoping that it’s going to be a great spectacle on Festival Friday.
                          It should be an absolute cracker.

                          One reason why I shade Zanahiyr over Quilixios are the stats for this race for horses coming straight from hurdles races in France, can't remember if it was one or your stats or someone else's, most likely something you researched though haha

                          Better off coming from the flat in France, Ireland or UK I believe was the case, from memory.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                            It should be an absolute cracker.

                            One reason why I shade Zanahiyr over Quilixios are the stats for this race for horses coming straight from hurdles races in France, can't remember if it was one or your stats or someone else's, most likely something you researched though haha

                            Better off coming from the flat in France, Ireland or UK I believe was the case, from memory.
                            You are right

                            First lockdown I checked and French Flat recruits did better than French Jump recruits in this race.

                            Great memory COD.

                            Last 10 Triumph Hurdles.

                            Where did the runners and placed horses begin their careers?

                            2020
                            1st BURNING VICTORY - French Flat (12F) 5 Runs, 1 Win RPR 94
                            2nd Aspire Tower - UK Flat (12F) 11 runs, 1 Win RPR 91
                            3rd Allmankind - UK Flat (10F) 6 runs, 1 Win RPR 89
                            -----------------------------------------------------------

                            2019
                            1st PENTLAND HILLS - UK Flat (12F) 11 runs, 2 runs RPR 77
                            2nd Couer Sublime - IRE Flat (10F) 1 Run, 1 Win RPR 80
                            3rd Gardens of Babylon - IRE Flat ((F) 2 runs, 0 Win RPR 81
                            -----------------------------------------------------------------

                            2018
                            1st FARCLAS - French Flat (12F) 4 runs, 1 win
                            2nd Mr Adjudicator - IRE Flat (12F) 12 runs, 1 Win RPR 88
                            3rd Sayo - French Flat (12F) 5 runs, 1 win
                            ---------------------------------------------------------

                            2017
                            1st DEFI DU SEUIL - French Flat (12F) 2 runs, 1 Win.
                            2nd Mega Fortune - IRE Flat (10F) 6 runs, 1 Win RPR 81
                            3rd Bapaume - French Hurdles 2 runs, 1 win (RPR H-117)
                            ---------------------------------------------------------------

                            2016
                            1st IVANOVICH GORBATOV - IRE Flat (15F) 3 runs, 2 wins RPR 109
                            2nd Apples Jade - French Hurdles 1 run, 1 win (RPR H-93)
                            3rd Footpad - French Hurdles 2 runs 0 win (RPR H-132)
                            ----------------------------------------------------------------

                            2015
                            1st PEACE & CO - French Hurdles 1 Run, 1 Win (RPR H-122)
                            2nd Top Notch - French Hurdles 2 Runs, 2 Wins (RPR H-129)
                            3rd Hargam - French Flat (12F) 3 Runs, 1 Win RPR 99
                            -------------------------------------------------------------

                            2014
                            1st TIGER ROLL - No Runs (trained by dual purpose trainer Nigel Hawke in the UK)
                            2nd Kentucky Hyden - French Flat 1 Run first RPR 72, then 4 French Hurdle races (RPR H-128)
                            3rd Guitar Pete - IRE Flat (12F) 6 Runs, No Wins RPR 52
                            ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                            2013
                            1st OUR CONOR - Irish Flat (9F) 6 Runs, 2 Wins RPR 86
                            2nd Far West - French Hurdles, 1 Run, 0 Win (RPR H-101)
                            3rd Sametagal - French Hurdles 2 Runs, 1 Win (RPR H-108)
                            -----------------------------------------------------------------

                            2012
                            1st COUNTRYSIDE FLAME - UK Flat (11F) 11 Runs, 3 Wins RPR 80
                            2nd Hisaabaat - Irish Flat (10F) 6 Runs, 1 Win RPR 86
                            3rd Grumeti - UK Flat (10F) 9 Runs, 2 Wins RPR 89
                            ---------------------------------------------------------

                            2011
                            1st ZARKANDAR - French Flat (13F) 3 Runs, 1 Win RPR 91
                            2nd Unaccompanied - IRE Flat (8F) 4 Runs, 2 Wins RPR 87
                            3rd Grandouet - French Hurdles 3 Runs, 1 Win (RPR H-122)
                            -----------------------------------------------------------------------


                            Over the last decade the results come into the following categories (from the horses first start) - adding Tiger Roll into UK (as stabled into UK and bought with flat pedigree from Sheikh Mo).

                            French Hurdling (8)
                            1 Winner
                            3 runners up
                            4 third places
                            Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls horses, all one or two French hurdles runs, apart from Grandouet 10 years ago, who raced three times.

                            ------------------------

                            French Flat (7)
                            4 Wins
                            1 runner-up
                            2 third places
                            Wide range of top stables, no more than 5 french flat runs, and 12F horses.
                            -------------------------

                            Irish Flat (9)
                            2 Wins
                            5 runners-up
                            2 thirds
                            Generally 9F to 12F winners, RPR up to 90
                            -----------------------

                            UK Flat (6)
                            3 Wins (if Tiger Roll included?) - or Goshen
                            1 runner-up
                            2 thirds
                            Generally lots of runs, at least one win, 10F to 12F horse, with RPR 77-91
                            -----------------------------

                            22 Flat horses and 8 French jumpers, with only 1 French hurdler (Peace and Co in 2015) winning in 10 years, did surprise me a bit, as i thought that there would be more French hurdle winners, given how much is talked of them transferring over to UK/IRE stables for big money.

                            The stand-out piece of information I will take from this is that French FLAT horses have won 4 Triumph Hurdles c/w 1 French HURDLER.
                            With 3 French Flat horses transferring stables and winning in the last 4 years.
                            All 4 French Flat horses that went on to win the Triumph Hurdle were all 12F horses.


                            All the last three years win/placed horses came from Flat Racing, and not French Hurdling.
                            Which could have been further added to, by Goshen 2020 (UK Flat) and Sir Erec 2018 (IRE Flat), had they finished their races.



                            I will be looking for 12F French Flat horses moving into Juvenile hurdles a lot more, now, with maybe a single win, as well as looking at UK/IRE 10F/12F Flat horses moving into Juvenile hurdles.
                            Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 8 February 2021, 06:42 PM.
                            "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                            Comment


                            • Good to have another read of that Saxon Warrior

                              For whatever reason, and I wouldn't like to say why French juvenile hurdlers don't convert to Triumph winners, but it doesn't bode that well for the likes of Quilixios or Nassalam.

                              I've not given much thought to backing Adagio but given he's a 14f French Flat winner I will have to now.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                                I just have a feeling Quixilos may come up the hill better. We have had a very wet last few weeks. If this continues then we are in for a soft ground Fez which may blunt Zanahiyr's speed. If we do get a dry/warm spring then I'd side with Z. A fascinating race.
                                Based on what? He didn't run through the line. The final 6f were slow. Saint Sam went too hard Quixilios sat off the pace and picked him up.

                                Comment

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