Stayers Hurdle 2021

[YoungHustler]

Yep.
Paisley Park won same race off 147
Sam Spinner off 139
And Lisnagar Oscar was well beat off 141.

It's a good trial for the stayers and the winner was impressive, although the 7lb claim would have helped.

Agreed that you can't ignore yesterday's race as a guide to the Stayer's. Main Fact did really well when Third Wind looked to be the winner but I think he will need heavy ground but looks to still be improving. His next run in graded company will be very informative.

My main take from the race is that Sire De Berlais comfortably beat Third Wind in last years Pertemps and giving him weight.

Main bet in this race is still Paisley Park. All the talk has been positive so I can't wait for this weekend's race which will be a cracker if the likes of Mcfabulous, Thyme Hill, Summitiville Boy and Lisnagar Oscar stand their ground.

[Lobos]

Main Fact is surely going to be put up into the low 150's after that which will put him at the same or higher level than the likes of Mcfabulous, Thyme Hill, and Fury Road.

[Can't Catch Me]

Agreed that you can't ignore yesterday's race as a guide to the Stayer's. Main Fact did really well when Third Wind looked to be the winner but I think he will need heavy ground but looks to still be improving. His next run in graded company will be very informative.

My main take from the race is that Sire De Berlais comfortably beat Third Wind in last years Pertemps and giving him weight.

That was exactly my take YH!

[charlie]

Main Fact seems thoroughly dependent on bog like conditions, which makes him far a less attractive ante post proposition IMO

[Lobos]

Main Fact seems thoroughly dependent on bog like conditions, which makes him far a less attractive ante post proposition IMO

Agreed he does like some dig but the stiff Cheltenham course will suit and you can see him passing loads up that daunting hill. He will devour that. At the price he's well worth adding just in case we do get another wet Fez.

[Guest]

Agreed he does like some dig but the stiff Cheltenham course will suit and you can see him passing loads up that daunting hill. He will devour that. At the price he's well worth adding just in case we do get another wet Fez.

Hi Lobos,

Just out of interest, what chance would you give him on soft ground or 'spring ground' (Whatever that is nowadays!)

I thought Main Fact was really good and shouldn't be underestimated either, but relying on heavy ground at 25/1 isn't ideal in my opinion.

Given that he's a David Pipe horse, he might still be a big price on the day, especially if the division still looks to have a lot of horses with chances like it does at the moment.

[Lobos]

Hi Lobos,

Just out of interest, what chance would you give him on soft ground or 'spring ground' (Whatever that is nowadays!)

I thought Main Fact was really good and shouldn't be underestimated either, but relying on heavy ground at 25/1 isn't ideal in my opinion.

Given that he's a David Pipe horse, he might still be a big price on the day, especially if the division still looks to have a lot of horses with chances like it does at the moment.

Genuine Soft ground at Cheltenham and that stiff finish would be perfect for him. Anything quicker and he'd likely be too far off before getting going.

[Priceiskey]

Agree Main Fact will need it testing to become a player in this race. If not he will get outpaced and the race will be gone before he gets rolling. I’m a big Mcfabulous fan so hoping for a big performance Saturday.

[Kevloaf]

Main Fact seems thoroughly dependent on bog like conditions, which makes him far a less attractive ante post proposition IMO

Yeah that's my take on it too, he was really good though.

Very much going to have to re-assess my thoughts on Sire Du Berlais as well I think. I'll go back and re-read what I thought when I analysed it in April, but I'm just wondering whether I was sulking a bit about The Storyteller not winning. The form since is stacking up, The Storyteller is a horse I still love yet I'm almost point blank dismissing Sire Du Berlais despite him beating him.

I also think I might be over compensating for how I feel about people getting carried away with the times of the Pertemps and Stayers. (To summarise them as briefly as I can, just because SDB's time was loads better than Lisnager Oscars, that doesn't guarantee he'd have won the Stayers - nobody factors in what the horses/jockeys would do if they were running in the different race and how they'd react. Essentially, Lisnager Oscar could have run in the Pertemps and bolted up for all we actually know).

I need to mull it over, I see SDB is now joint fav too, so perhaps I'm just doubting why I am not seeing what everyone else does. I feel that way about McFabulous too in this division.


With the race coming up (what a belter) I need to do something this coming week I think.

[Outlaw]

I also think I might be over compensating for how I feel about people getting carried away with the times of the Pertemps and Stayers. (To summarise them as briefly as I can, just because SDB's time was loads better than Lisnager Oscars, that doesn't guarantee he'd have won the Stayers - nobody factors in what the horses/jockeys would do if they were running in the different race and how they'd react. Essentially, Lisnager Oscar could have run in the Pertemps and bolted up for all we actually know).

It's a fair comment, not many do think what might happen but possibly because you can only go on what you see/record. I think anyone that goes to the effort of doing splits/sectionals can come to a conclusion how the race pans out to have suited/inconvenienced certain horses thou. Those that go off an RP time as gospel and go it's faster so it' must be better perhaps don't.

[Istabraq]

but I'm just wondering whether I was sulking a bit about The Storyteller not winning. The form since is stacking up, The Storyteller is a horse I still love yet I'm almost point blank dismissing Sire Du Berlais despite him beating him.

I need to mull it over, I see SDB is now joint fav too, so perhaps I'm just doubting why I am not seeing what everyone else does.

I can see that Kev, but you also have to question why SDB was kept to handicaps for as long as he was, even after his first Pertemps Elliott didn’t see him as a grades horse, surely if you think you have a championship horse in the yard you train him to win championship races and not spend 4 years in handicaps, we’re not talking about a 6yo here, SDB will be 9 in a month.

It still looks a weak ish division to me, maybe one or two will come out and impress (Paisley Park and Thyme Hill yet to be seen) and it will have a better look by Christmas, I hope so...

[Kevloaf]

[/B]

It's a fair comment, not many do think what might happen but possibly because you can only go on what you see/record. I think anyone that goes to the effort of doing splits/sectionals can come to a conclusion how the race pans out to have suited/inconvenienced certain horses thou. Those that go off an RP time as gospel and go it's faster so it' must be better perhaps don't.

Yes I agree with that. For me it essentially it comes down to the level of ability that person has at analysing the data - the same as it does form any stats, trend, reading of form etc.

Simon Rowlands, Andy Holding both do pretty well don't they - you'd hope that it becomes more common and actually standard as horse racing moves somewhere near the 21st century.

How much of your punting do you credit to the timings?

I can see that Kev, but you also have to question why SDB was kept to handicaps for as long as he was, even after his first Pertemps Elliott didn’t see him as a grades horse, surely if you think you have a championship horse in the yard you train him to win championship races and not spend 4 years in handicaps, we’re not talking about a 6yo here, SDB will be 9 in a month.

It still looks a weak ish division to me, maybe one or two will come out and impress (Paisley Park and Thyme Hill yet to be seen) and it will have a better look by Christmas, I hope so...

Yes, all very true. I think it's important to go back and question your own thought processes every now and again, but what you've said is very much in the 'against' category which is where I pitched my tent.

Fresh eyes versus gut feelings

[Outlaw]

Kev- tbh I've only really gotten into in over this summer as few I know have took it seriously. Always had an interest but was dubious to what it was actually worth. Honestly no more than 10%,form interpretation & opinion still the backbone of my punting. It's just something to put together vs other races on the card to try and judge ability in a different way.

Yeah it would be good going forward if the total,circuit & home straight runs were there for comparative uses even if it's an edge for many gone. People would still use/view it differently.

[Istabraq]

Yes I agree with that. For me it essentially it comes down to the level of ability that person has at analysing the data - the same as it does form any stats, trend, reading of form etc.

Simon Rowlands, Andy Holding both do pretty well don't they - you'd hope that it becomes more common and actually standard as horse racing moves somewhere near the 21st century.

How much of your punting do you credit to the timings?



Yes, all very true. I think it's important to go back and question your own thought processes every now and again, but what you've said is very much in the 'against' category which is where I pitched my tent.

Fresh eyes versus gut feelings

Living by certain principles and applying basic logic/rules is what determines how we bet, personally I’m always wary of horses that spend multiple years in handicaps, logic tells me horses don’t improve at 9 and it’s not a race that throws up future champion, Percy went on to win an RSA but that probably has more to do with his true ability being hidden for so long which isn’t entirely a new thing but something we’re seeing more and more now, but he has to be the exception and not the rule...

[Lobos]

I can see that Kev, but you also have to question why SDB was kept to handicaps for as long as he was, even after his first Pertemps Elliott didn’t see him as a grades horse, surely if you think you have a championship horse in the yard you train him to win championship races and not spend 4 years in handicaps, we’re not talking about a 6yo here, SDB will be 9 in a month.

It still looks a weak ish division to me, maybe one or two will come out and impress (Paisley Park and Thyme Hill yet to be seen) and it will have a better look by Christmas, I hope so...

Spot on Ista. His age is the one worry. Only 1 9yo going for the race first time has won in the last 12 years. Don't blame them going for it as it does look open this year but he is vulnerable to the 7yo's Thyme Hill, Fury Road and the horse I think will win it, Mcfabulous. Next week's race will see the outright fav emerge.