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Back in April, i said Paisley Park and Thyme Hill were the value bets in this market at 11/1 and 18/1 for this
Fair play MoM, where did you snare 18/1 Thyme Hill ?
I backed him on the Saturday after the potato race at 16/1 and kept backing him at that price for a while, I don't remember ever seeing bigger.
A voucher to get excited about no question...
PP comes out best on ratings as he was giving 3lbs to both 1st and 3rd. To me from the time they (eventually) started to race you had a true run 3ml hurdle
1/2/3 lbs wouldn't of changed a thing today imo and I'm a figures man. Was slow as feck early as VDF must of gone 10 clear starting the 2nd circuit. Enough time to get racing down the backstraight I suspect.
I really am astonished that they're not looking at fences for McFabulous over fences - he'd be a weapon over 2 1/2 with the way he travels through his races. Perhaps he schooled over the summer and absolutely s**t the bed?
Nicholls said before the race today that if he didn't win they would go chasing with him, not sure why he's changed his mind after that run
.....thought TH jumped particularly well and interesting that Hobbs mentioned he had been schooling over fences but would stick to hurdles this season. Could be one for the future RSA notebook.
I really am astonished that they're not looking at fences for McFabulous over fences - he'd be a weapon over 2 1/2 with the way he travels through his races. Perhaps he schooled over the summer and absolutely s**t the bed?
Clearly save him for next season now. One I'm really looking forward to now though.
I don't think I'll buy into the fitness excuse (if they bring that up) - he's definitely shown good enough there today to be worthwhile having onside though which is really pleasing.
I also agree that TH deserves to be favourite. That was a really pleasant surprise (for all that a 7/2 shot can be a surprise).....
I am glad McFabulous was beaten (although soured by having 3 points on him this morning for the special) - Interesting he's going to the Cleeve next, but I agree with someone else above, he didn't see that out well enough and it can't be blamed on fitness.
Fury Road gets a little boost too....
Nothing to lose there, although Lisnager Oscar will need a performance from out of the miracle book to still have a chance. Given he's the reigning champion 50/1 is insulting, however I feel like history will show that was just a freak result. I won't cash him out (unless I can for 100%) and then I'd re-back at 50/1
I thought Thyme Hill won that really, really well...can't wait to watch it back
***Clutching at straws warning****
A bit mystified by Lisnagar Oscar's running today.
He travelled well and loomed up entering the straight looking like he could win - actually got his nose in front - and then faded badly.
It was a similar story on his seasonal debut.
So is it just a case that he's not good enough, is in decline or are there reasons to go in again at 50-1.
Just looked back over his form and it's interesting that his 4 victories - 3 over hurdles and 1 PTP - have all been in January, February and March.
His career record post post New Year reads (latest first): 1 3 F 3 5 1 1 1
His career record pre Christmas Is: 7 4 9 3 2 2 2 3
He improved by almost a stone over hurdles during the 2018 season according to his RPRS.
Last season his first 3 runs were over fences and he was beaten 33 lengths at 4-5 on his second start and then 23 lengths on his third start.
Today's initial dawdle probably didn't suit him.
I think a big field and an end-to-end gallop at Cheltenham is going to be far more to his liking.
But as someone who can't cash out my initial poor value LO bets do I want to chase him any further - hmmmm?
Last edited by nortonscoin200; 27 November 2020, 07:39 PM.
Fair play MoM, where did you snare 18/1 Thyme Hill ?
I backed him on the Saturday after the potato race at 16/1 and kept backing him at that price for a while, I don't remember ever seeing bigger.
A voucher to get excited about no question...
16s with Paddy Power but used my boost to get the 18s. Was also not many weeks after the Bartlett I believe.
Fair play MoM, where did you snare 18/1 Thyme Hill ?
I backed him on the Saturday after the potato race at 16/1 and kept backing him at that price for a while, I don't remember ever seeing bigger.
A voucher to get excited about no question...
Forgot this was one of your stronger fancies Ista, congrats.... couldn't have asked for much more!
A bit mystified by Lisnagar Oscar's running today.
He travelled well and loomed up entering the straight -looking like he could win - actually got his nose in front - and then faded badly.
It was a very much similar story on his seasonal debut.
So is it just a case that he's not good enough, is in decline or are there reasons to go in again at 50-1.
Just looked back over his form and it's interesting that his 4 victories - 3 over hurdles and 1 PTP - have all been in January, February and March.
His career record post post New Year reads (latest first): 1 3 F 3 5 1 1 1
His career record pre Christmas Is: 7 4 9 3 2 2 2 3
He improved by almost a stone over the hurdles during the 2018 season according to his RPRS.
Last season his first 3 runs were over fences and he was beaten 33 lengths at 4-5 on his second start and then 23 lengths on his third start.
Today's initial dawdle probably didn't suit him.
I think I big field and an end-to-end gallop at Cheltenham is going to be far more to his liking.
But as someone who can't cash out my initial poor value LO bets do I want to chase him any further - hmmmm?
Pretty good clutching, definitely got your fingers on to something.
Let's face it, he's definitely going to turn up there (if not injured).....
It's an over reaction from the bookie isn't it.... even if you'd only grasped 1 straw, that straw could be he's the reigning champion so as a C&D festival winner at Cheltenham, at 50/1, is a no brainer in terms of backing him, knowing that he does have that performance in him...
Pretty good clutching, definitely got your fingers on to something.
Let's face it, he's definitely going to turn up there (if not injured).....
It's an over reaction from the bookie isn't it.... even if you'd only grasped 1 straw, that straw could be he's the reigning champion so as a C&D festival winner at Cheltenham, at 50/1, is a no brainer in terms of backing him, knowing that he does have that performance in him...
I'm sold.
0.5 pts e/w
x2
In case I want to cash one at some point
You've tipped me over the precipice - I'm in for 2 x 0.5 each way.
Smart move doing the bet twice - wouldn't have thought of that.
That was some race today told us alot! For me thyme hill held off paisley today really well he was very unlucky in the bartlett if he wasnt he could of well won the race at the festival by a length in my opinion so it franks the form of the top 4 in that race but he was the best of them for me
i think to of gone through what paisley has gone through and put a run like that in on his comeback giving 3lbs suggests hes the one to take out of it though! I dont fancy fury road because of how i feel TH was unlucky in the bartlett and i dont fancy sire du berlais either i always thought unless paisley is back itll be a young improver that wins the race which the stats pretty much back up...my 3 nags in my ante post for the stayers was in the top 3 today, ill now say i thik mcfab wont stay up that hill but having 20s on him is still ok.. i do think the top 2 today will be the top 2 come march
My reading after that today is we can narrow the Stayers down to 5 horses now. The first and second today, Sire de Berlais and Fury Road in Ireland, and if we get a really strongly run race again, Lisnager Oscar. So I was also a backer when the 50’s appeared NC200.
I have really good coverage now on all those I’m interested in, so If anyone can make a really good case for anything else and I’ve missed it I’m all ears.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Times are taken from each individual horse from jumping their first hurdle to the next. As you can see from jumping the first hurdle to the line on the first circuit, the Long walk were circa 9secs(40L ish) behind vs the hcap hurdle to emphasise the lack of anyone willing to take it up prior to VDF past the post first time. From there the next circuit was comfortably the quickest of the day for any of the hurdles on show but that should be no surprise given the talent in the race and the dawdle for the first 2.5 mins.
TH & PP put 6L min to Mcfab from 3out I'm happy to think he(Mcfab) doesn't stay and a stiffer course elsewhere and possibility of softer surface would see him beat as far if not further IMO. I'd like to think a stiffer course and truer pace would suit PP but he made no real progress to TH from 3 out when asked to suggest that it wasn't a deserved victory for the winner. TH has clear tactical speed to match or better PP whilst staying 3m well(from Ab run) so it's no forgone conclusion that a stiffer race would reverse the terms thou i personally would like to be optimistic it potentially could. Given the slow early nature i am surprised Summerville boy was not ridden more prominently and can only assume was ridden with a slight doubt of staying the 3m well( 20f intermediate trip prob his best a bit like Supasunade) Lisnagar again ran poorly and seems hard to catch right.
2m hurdle Drogo
2m 4 BMG
Long Walk Hurdle
3m hcap
My Drogo
BMG
Thyme Hill
Paisley
Mcfab
Hill 16
Lil Rocka
8 hurdles
10 hurdles
12 hurdles
12 hurdles
12 hurdles
12 hurdles
12 hurdles
1st to 2nd
20.2
20.5
20.4
18.5
18.4
2nd to 3rd
68.7
68.4
68.5
64.9
64.3
3rd to 4th
23.4
24.1
24.1
23.8
23
23.2
4th to 5th
15.9
17.1
16.8
17.2
15.9
15.9
5th to line
22.9
21.2
22.7
23
22.9
21.6
21.8
4 hurdles first circuit time Rough 9f
2M 32.8
2M 32.8
2M 32.8
2M 23.9
2M 23.6
line to 6th
35.1
33.7
32.9
32.9
32.9
34.5
34.5
6th to 7th
18.7
17.3
16.8
16.8
16.6
17.2
17.3
7th to 8th
17.5
17.2
17.4
17.1
17.1
17.8
17.8
8th to 9th
18.6
17.6
17.5
17.8
17.7
18
18
9th to 10th
59.5
59.3
57.9
57.7
57.4
59
58.9
10th to 11th
20.6
20.2
20
20
20.2
20.6
20.3
11th to12th
14.5
14.3
14.1
14.1
14.3
14.6
14.6
12th to line
19
20.3
20.1
20
21.3
20.9
21.8
Circuit Time
3M 23.5
3m 19.9
3m 16.7
3m 16.4
3m 17.5
3M 22.6
3M 23.2
3 to line
54.1
54.8
54.2
54.1
55.8
56.1
56.7
Last edited by Outlaw; 28 November 2020, 10:09 AM.
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