Originally posted by Istabraq
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Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets
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Originally posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View PostI thought Fakir ran a cracking race in the Arkle for a 5 year old and your support was well placed. Given normal amounts of improvement with age he surely has a great chance of going close to the top over the next couple of seasons. He’ll very likely be one of my more significant antepost bets but can’t see the price going anywhere over the next few months and would love to get whiff of an early season target before getting involved.
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Defi shocked me this season, not sure I can ever remember a Triumph winner stepping up to the intermediate trip (Marsh) then come back down to the minimum trip for a championship tilt.
He clearly isn’t as bad as his QM running but I was excited about getting against him if Chacun and Altior had stood their ground but when the race fell apart I thought even Defi had to win against that lot.
Much depends on what race they target come March, Ryanair looks ideal but if he stays the King George trip they’ll be tempted at the Gold Cup I expect.
Either way, Fakir at 25/1 for the QM looks OK, I keep pressing...
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Just made this point on Qs thread but why is the public so sure that Shiskin is an Arkle horse?
I expect that’ll be the target and he does look like a bit of a weapon but I see him as a JLT type horse. Wouldn’t be inconceivable for me if he ended up in that rather than the Arkle but I suppose it’ll depend how he’s campaigned. If he wins a few egg and spoon races rather than going for the better 2m races, he’d probably be unbeaten by March and end up in the Arkle. Certainly an interesting one to ponder - although it does seem abit premature to talk about the possibility of him being unbeaten over fences prior to Cheltenham but it’s all part of the antepost fun and games isn’t it.
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Originally posted by TheEagleHasLanded View PostWhat’s better value for next years champion hurdle in people’s opinions?
Buveur D’Air - 25s
Solo - 66s
I’d be suprised if either won tbh but there’s no way a duel Champion Hurdler at 25/1 isn’t better value than a 5 year old who’d have only won a seemingly bang average Adonis and was well beaten in a Triumph at less than 2 and a half times the price. BD is MASSIVELY better value of the pair.
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Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View PostBuveur D’Air surely.
I’d be suprised if either won tbh but there’s no way a duel Champion Hurdler at 25/1 isn’t better value than a 5 year old who’d have only won a seemingly bang average Adonis and was well beaten in a Triumph at less than 2 and a half times the price. BD is MASSIVELY better value of the pair.
Was just quite surprised at both prices
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Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View PostJust made this point on Qs thread but why is the public so sure that Shiskin is an Arkle horse?
I expect that’ll be the target and he does look like a bit of a weapon but I see him as a JLT type horse. Wouldn’t be inconceivable for me if he ended up in that rather than the Arkle but I suppose it’ll depend how he’s campaigned. If he wins a few egg and spoon races rather than going for the better 2m races, he’d probably be unbeaten by March and end up in the Arkle. Certainly an interesting one to ponder - although it does seem abit premature to talk about the possibility of him being unbeaten over fences prior to Cheltenham but it’s all part of the antepost fun and games isn’t it.
I’ll also add, they could well be right
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Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View PostJust made this point on Qs thread but why is the public so sure that Shiskin is an Arkle horse?
I expect that’ll be the target and he does look like a bit of a weapon but I see him as a JLT type horse. Wouldn’t be inconceivable for me if he ended up in that rather than the Arkle but I suppose it’ll depend how he’s campaigned. If he wins a few egg and spoon races rather than going for the better 2m races, he’d probably be unbeaten by March and end up in the Arkle. Certainly an interesting one to ponder - although it does seem abit premature to talk about the possibility of him being unbeaten over fences prior to Cheltenham but it’s all part of the antepost fun and games isn’t it.Originally posted by TheEagleHasLanded View PostThink most of the hype is from people on twitter saying oooohh he must be the new Altior because it’s trained by the same bloke and won the same race..... people adding 2+2 and getting 22
I’ll also add, they could well be right
The only reason I can see Shishkin in the Marsh, is if he's beaten over 2 miles during his Novice Chase campaign and therefore doesn't look good enough, or Nicky has an absolute Superstar at home that he's kept a bit of a secret (incredibly unlikely at this stage)
Nicky has been training long enough to respect his patterns and ways he campaigns his top horses too. If you can show me an example of him sending his best prospect to the Marsh(JLT) then I'm all ears.
Waste of time (although plenty of time to waste at the moment) thinking he could go elsewhere. The owners have other options up in trip too (Asterion Forlonge, The Big Breakaway - spring to mind VERY quickly)
....and yes MoM, you are technially right as it's not inconceivable and he's probably (hopefully) good enough to win either.... (I assume most Arkle winners would fair well in the same years JLT/Marsh and vica versa).... but I think Shishkin and Envoi Allen will avoid each other.
I suppose Envoi Allen being declared as an Arkle horse (unlikely to get that in the public domain) would possibly send Shishkin up in trip.... unlikely though.Last edited by Kevloaf; 24 March 2020, 08:34 PM.
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