Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Istabraq]

Have you got a link Ista?

You’re testing my IT skills now Marty...

[Istabraq]

‘’But on a more positive note, Henderson added: "All the two-legged team, the staff, are still here. We've got to look after them and make sure they are alright. We've got a lot to look forward to, we have fantastic horses and a whole team of exciting bumper horses we never ran too."

Go to the RP site, this was at the end of the ‘This is the biggest Crisis in our lifetime’

[JackieMoon33]

....the 25-1 Chantry House for the Marsh looks a thing of the past following Henderson’s comments that he’ll be steeping up in distance over fences.

Very annoying for me

[Willdunn99]

Darver Star interesting and quite a nice price for the Arkle but he will be 9 so not really a bet I could make at this stage, if hes still 33/1 when he gets an entry in a novice chase id be pretty tempted.

I was waiting for an update on him as I’d also be interested when he goes chasing. Solid form and hurdle rating.

It’s appears with connections comments the juice in the price has been squeezed already though, for the Arkle 16/1 or 20/1 with those firms that offer cash outs.

Like you I would want 33/1 and can’t entertain backing at current odds without him getting to start of the season let alone jumping a fence.

I know the article stated Arkle, but in my opinion the Marsh and up in distance might suit, being 9 and seemingly doing his best work towards the end of races. Paddy power are 33/1 for that race so if they drop a free bet into my account I’d be tempted.

[JackieMoon33]

Interesting comments from Hendo about his army of bumper horses who haven’t hit the racecourse yet.
I would assume the plan to go novice hurdling with them next season still remains so perhaps the novice hurdle division may not be quite as Irish/2020 Bumper dominated as we thought...

I've said this on various threads but the Champion Bumper is not always the best trial for the following seasons novice hurdles. Henderson always has a strong team of novice hurdlers but keeps a lot of horses to a very low key bumper season. Look at Shishkin this season, he didn't even make his bumper debut until after last seasons festival and Chantry House ran just before it.

However, I actually think the Irish will have a strong hand in novice hurdlers, but I think the depth will come from horses that did not run at the festival. Ferny and Appreciate It look good but I'm thinking it lacks a bit of depth (contrary to ratings).

[Marty973]

‘’But on a more positive note, Henderson added: "All the two-legged team, the staff, are still here. We've got to look after them and make sure they are alright. We've got a lot to look forward to, we have fantastic horses and a whole team of exciting bumper horses we never ran too."

Go to the RP site, this was at the end of the ‘This is the biggest Crisis in our lifetime’

Thanks Ista

[Istabraq]

I don’t disagree Jackie, but everyone gauges an opinion based on what they see, the 2019 bumper was considered to be a good renewal and this season has proved that to be the case, I have simply taken the same view on this years renewal though it’ll be at least a year before we can say that was the case...

[kinloch brae]

And speaking of Envoi Allen where does everyone think he’ll go? Marsh?

Even if you knew the race is he any value? Sometimes with unbeaten horses reputation clouds performance. After he was impressive on hurdling debut did he do anything more than get the job done on the other three starts? Yes, there might be more in the tank but for the moment he is always going to be priced up as if that is a given. Two of the challengers didn't really turn up in the Ballymore and I doubt that second and third are Grade 1 hurdlers. He may also be trying a relatively new discipline. Yes, Appreciate It was third in his point but the second is no great shakes so who knows what he achieved on the day.

[Priceiskey]

Possibly but I'm surprised anyone is risking around 5 or 6 -1 when the target could be either of 2 chases or if he doesn't jump well then perhaps the CH and if he really jumps well then why not straight to the GC.....

Looking at the past 12 RSAs and 10 Marsh chase the shortest price winner was Blaklion of the RSA at 8/13, next lowest were in the Marsh of Vatour and Yorkhill at 6-4. Do we think that EA is going to be better than all of them and face sufficiently lower quality opposition, such that his SP will be in that kind of range.

I'm of the view to see how he gets on and then decide nearer the time to back him once his target is confirmed. If he really is a superstar and the odds become prohibitive then maybe this is one that got away.

I have him ANY race in a few doubles but mainly to boost the potential winnings from the other selection in the double.

Agree I won’t be touching Envoi Allen until I’m confident of his target and even then he will never be any value.
Just a note on RSA, Denman was the shortest I remember at 6/5 and Blaklion was an 8/1 outsider.
If Envoi does go to RSA I’ll be shocked if he’s under 6/4 with the likes of Big Getaway, Breakaway, Monkfish and Latest Exhibition all very likely to be in the race. I think it looks the most competitive race out there at this stage.

[Kevloaf]

Even if you knew the race is he any value? Sometimes with unbeaten horses reputation clouds performance. .

Agree I won’t be touching Envoi Allen until I’m confident of his target and even then he will never be any value.

Value relative to what though?

Will he ever be a bigger price than he is now?



I wouldn't back him now in a single (or I would have already) but where do you stand on those two questions above?

[Morley Street]

Interesting shout out to Angels Breath in this article from Hendo. I liked his jumping before he got injured and based on these comments think 33s for the Ryanair is a bit too big to resist:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/henderson-retains-faith-in-altior-with-ace-shishkin-to-go-novice-chasing/430471

[Craigy14]

Interesting shout out to Angels Breath in this article from Hendo. I liked his jumping before he got injured and based on these comments think 33s for the Ryanair is a bit too big to resist:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/late...chasing/430471

Mentioned him a couple times MS.....terribly frustrating he’s been clipped already!

Was obviously going to wait for a race entry but seems this positive update was enough.

[Priceiskey]

Kevloaf,I am not sure of EA target so splitting stakes between the two likely races would average to about 5/2. Taking 5/2 a year out about a horse who has to get there, jump a fence and stay in form is not my thing like most would agree so that’s what I meant by no value.

[kinloch brae]

Value relative to what though?

Will he ever be a bigger price than he is now?



I wouldn't back him now in a single (or I would have already) but where do you stand on those two questions above?

Value is what you feel about a horse relative to the potential opposition. My view is that he doesn't have as much in hand (if anything) as the markets suggest.

If the novice chase career goes pear-shaped or he stays over hurdles then effectively there won't be a price.

At the moment it is also guesswork as to his optimum trip. He might not get three miles. The big plus is that he travels and seems to find off the bridle. That's done the trick so far but he might just come up against a better one.

[Kautothegreat8]

Value is what you feel about a horse relative to the potential opposition. My view is that he doesn't have as much in hand (if anything) as the markets suggest.

If the novice chase career goes pear-shaped or he stays over hurdles then effectively there won't be a price.

At the moment it is also guesswork as to his optimum trip. He might not get three miles. The big plus is that he travels and seems to find off the bridle. That's done the trick so far but he might just come up against a better one.

A better one ???

Now assuming he can jump a fence, who gives him a race ? The only novice horse of similar ability is Shishkin and I’d be pretty confident they’ll be running at different trips.

Fences could change things but looking at all the novice hurdlers potentially going chasing he seems in a completely different league.

Personally don’t think Davy give him a good ride in the Ballymore and he still come cruising with some serious speed.

He’s a clear superstar I certainly won’t be taking him on next term.