Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Middle_Of_March]

I can promise you, my opinion that Shishkin ends up in the Arkle has fuck all to do with what "people on twitter" think.

The only reason I can see Shishkin in the Marsh, is if he's beaten over 2 miles during his Novice Chase campaign and therefore doesn't look good enough, or Nicky has an absolute Superstar at home that he's kept a bit of a secret (incredibly unlikely at this stage)



Nicky has been training long enough to respect his patterns and ways he campaigns his top horses too. If you can show me an example of him sending his best prospect to the Marsh(JLT) then I'm all ears.



Waste of time (although plenty of time to waste at the moment) thinking he could go elsewhere. The owners have other options up in trip too (Asterion Forlonge, The Big Breakaway - spring to mind VERY quickly)





....and yes MoM, you are technially right as it's not inconceivable and he's probably (hopefully) good enough to win either.... (I assume most Arkle winners would fair well in the same years JLT/Marsh and vica versa).... but I think Shishkin and Envoi Allen will avoid each other.


I suppose Envoi Allen being declared as an Arkle horse (unlikely to get that in the public domain) would possibly send Shishkin up in trip.... unlikely though.

Plenty of good points in there and I agree with a fair amount of it. I do agree about connections wanting to avoid Envoi though could also see the latter in an RSA.

I will be backing Shishkin for the Arkle so I’d want to see him go there really but there’s just something about him that reminds me of more of a staying type of Supreme winner than a speedster like Altior. If he can jump a fence, he’d be very likely unbeaten going into the Arkle assuming connections don’t try anything wild with him and he’d be the one to beat. In a way, he reminds me of a better version of Kalashnikov in his novice hurdle season and he was just not quick enough for 2 miles over a fence. It’ll be interesting to see how they approach it in the run up to the festival though with his prep. I certainly expect the target right now for him to be the 2021 Arkle. I just wonder if that could change.!

[somer1]

Just made this point on Qs thread but why is the public so sure that Shiskin is an Arkle horse?

I expect that’ll be the target and he does look like a bit of a weapon but I see him as a JLT type horse. Wouldn’t be inconceivable for me if he ended up in that rather than the Arkle but I suppose it’ll depend how he’s campaigned. If he wins a few egg and spoon races rather than going for the better 2m races, he’d probably be unbeaten by March and end up in the Arkle. Certainly an interesting one to ponder - although it does seem abit premature to talk about the possibility of him being unbeaten over fences prior to Cheltenham but it’s all part of the antepost fun and games isn’t it.

Think it was said on this thread about Pic D'orhy which sums it up for me.
Trainers are Creatures Of Habit.

[Istabraq]

Interesting that Appreciate It is a shorter price than Ferny Hollow for the Ballymore on the exchange, not by much but shorter nonetheless...

[Saxon Warrior]

Nicky Henderson interview on Racing TV today doesnt confirm, for sure, that Shishkin will be going chasing next year.

it does suggest Chantry House is likely to go chasing, and Allart to remain over hurdles, but no decision on Shishkin yet.

For me, Shishkin is already 6, so a decision on fences or hurdles is a major call, as staying hurdling for one year, to try and win the Champion Hurdle, would put him at 7 rising 8 when he makes his chasing debut. 16/1 is a massive price if he does go to the Champion Hurdle.

"Shishkin is very good and he won despite a pretty troubled passage. Things didn’t go at all well. The ground was probably plenty soft enough for him on the first day.

When you have got these very speedy horses that have very good changes of pace, very soft ground almost certainly doesn’t suit them, they are not sloggers.

We had a pretty strong team with Shishkin and Chantry House, who I’d preferred to have run over two and a half miles but then we would have bumped into Envoi Allen and that was probably the one horse to be avoided. Allart actually ran a great race as well. They finished first, third and fifth, so it was a strong hand to play in the opening skirmish.

I wouldn’t be so sure about Allart (going chasing next season), I think he has got unfinished business over hurdles. Chantry House certainly looks like he could go chasing and Shishkin we will have to just look and see. The main thing is he managed to win the Supreme Hurdle and the two of them - Abracadabras and Shishkin - they pulled a long way clear of Chantry House who is a very good horse in his own right, we know that.

It was actually Joe Donnelly’s other horse, Asterion Forlonge, who caused the trouble. It would have been a bitter blow if his own horse took his other horse out. It took us into the car park and Nico had a big problem on his hands from there to get back in, get back onto a racing line and then get the horse to pick up again.

I think the only reason he got back into the race so well was that he has the tactical speed to get himself out of trouble. That was where his class came in. I think he has an enormously high future."

[kinloch brae]

I must admit I was a little surprised at the rush to cement Shishkin for the Arkle.

If you had a choice of 5/1 NRNB for the Arkle or 16/1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle what would you take?

The horse won the Supreme showing a gear and a decent attitude despite not having the run of the race. There should be more to come over hurdles. Why not explore that for a year, or at least part year? Epatante was a decisive winner of the Champion Hurdle but it wasn't a performance that suggested that she was invincible. I appreciate it does complicate matters a little that she is in the same stable but Henderson seems happy to go into the race mob handed.

[Hardy Eustace]

A fair bit of blue for Ballyadam in the supreme today. Lads/coral, unibet and Sportingbet all cut him (as have the shit bookies) - too early to be getting excited but interesting nonetheless!

[Saxon Warrior]

I must admit I was a little surprised at the rush to cement Shishkin for the Arkle.

If you had a choice of 5/1 NRNB for the Arkle or 16/1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle what would you take?

The horse won the Supreme showing a gear and a decent attitude despite not having the run of the race. There should be more to come over hurdles. Why not explore that for a year, or at least part year? Epatante was a decisive winner of the Champion Hurdle but it wasn't a performance that suggested that she was invincible. I appreciate it does complicate matters a little that she is in the same stable but Henderson seems happy to go into the race mob handed.

16/1 for Champion Hurdle is massive, given Abacadabras is 10’s and had an easier pathway through the Supreme.

Probably worth a punt with cashout, if you normally hold a lot of antepost bets for the Festival in your book, including a few for the Champion Hurdle.

[Big Chac]

Just to point out , if anyone fancies salseretta for the new mares chase it look as though she's roughly 5/1 however 10/1 any race with williamhill.

[archie]

Anyone taking 5/1 this far out deserves all they get.

[Eggs]

Just to point out , if anyone fancies salseretta for the new mares chase it look as though she's roughly 5/1 however 10/1 any race with williamhill.

...cheers, chucked it in a few small stake a/r doubles.

[Middle_Of_March]

Anyone taking 5/1 this far out deserves all they get.

Depends on the horse tbf.

But 5/1 for Salsaretta for a brand new race is incredibly short. She will almost definitely be bigger than that on the day even if she turned up!

Benie will go there and win is my early call for that one

[archie]

When Ladbrokes and Coral are the 'senior' companies offering prices, you wouldn't expect value. They're just taking advantage of people who must have a bet. Like drug pushers without the morals.

[somer1]

Nicky Henderson interview on Racing TV today doesnt confirm, for sure, that Shishkin will be going chasing next year.

it does suggest Chantry House is likely to go chasing, and Allart to remain over hurdles, but no decision on Shishkin yet.

For me, Shishkin is already 6, so a decision on fences or hurdles is a major call, as staying hurdling for one year, to try and win the Champion Hurdle, would put him at 7 rising 8 when he makes his chasing debut. 16/1 is a massive price if he does go to the Champion Hurdle.

"Shishkin is very good and he won despite a pretty troubled passage. Things didn’t go at all well. The ground was probably plenty soft enough for him on the first day.

When you have got these very speedy horses that have very good changes of pace, very soft ground almost certainly doesn’t suit them, they are not sloggers.

We had a pretty strong team with Shishkin and Chantry House, who I’d preferred to have run over two and a half miles but then we would have bumped into Envoi Allen and that was probably the one horse to be avoided. Allart actually ran a great race as well. They finished first, third and fifth, so it was a strong hand to play in the opening skirmish.

I wouldn’t be so sure about Allart (going chasing next season), I think he has got unfinished business over hurdles. Chantry House certainly looks like he could go chasing and Shishkin we will have to just look and see. The main thing is he managed to win the Supreme Hurdle and the two of them - Abracadabras and Shishkin - they pulled a long way clear of Chantry House who is a very good horse in his own right, we know that.

It was actually Joe Donnelly’s other horse, Asterion Forlonge, who caused the trouble. It would have been a bitter blow if his own horse took his other horse out. It took us into the car park and Nico had a big problem on his hands from there to get back in, get back onto a racing line and then get the horse to pick up again.

I think the only reason he got back into the race so well was that he has the tactical speed to get himself out of trouble. That was where his class came in. I think he has an enormously high future."

Gary Nutting from ATR has just put Chantry House up for the Marsh next year

[Kevloaf]

16/1 for Champion Hurdle is massive, given Abacadabras is 10’s and had an easier pathway through the Supreme.

Probably worth a punt with cashout, if you normally hold a lot of antepost bets for the Festival in your book, including a few for the Champion Hurdle.

You'd need to be quick off the mark in regards to an annoucement on Shishkin.

If they said he's going Novice Chasing they'd likely suspend the cashout on the horse. He's too high profile and there is nothing else for the bookies to be concentrating on at the moment.

That'd put me off taking the 16/1 for the CH as the safety net of cashout isn't as safe as it is in other cases.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Gary Nutting from ATR has just put Chantry House up for the Marsh next year

Could do with the Nutster chilling out a bit. I like the selections he has put up so far, but very annoying that he is impacting prices at this ridiculously early time