2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Stormez]

Ontheropes and Capo the favs to go to the NHC a.t.m.

Galopin and Gaillard the RSA

Stattler the RSA, or maybe the Marsh.

Others may fill in to the Marsh, Ciel de Neige, Jungle Junction, Sam.

Ferny and Blue Lord the Arkle

Praying you’re right with these!

[Saxon Warrior]

You've probably noted why in one of your many useful write ups, but can you remind me again why Capo would be one of the favs for the NHC?

On the eye he looked to have enough pace to get back up against a couple of stayers. His breeding also does not suggest a trip. So I am intrigued as to why the NHC is the race for him

Capo is improving at a rate of knots.

Galopin is the likely number 1 for the RSA, Gaillard maybe no 2.

Ive covered Capo for the RSA now, just in case.

WPM Stable Tour mentioned jockeys will be queuing up to ride him, which implied to me Mark Walsh/Paul Townend and Patrick/Derek O'Connor - which pointed to the NHC.

Principally though and much earlier, back in July, when I ploughed through the Willie Mullins Diary - as I did each race in detail, through to all prior season race routes, Capo poked his head into a possible NHC route.

So I got him priced up with all the bookies, and backed him for it.

Then in October Mark Howard in his Book, put him up him one of only two or three antepost Cheltenham bets too - in the NHC.

I think now it's a Grade 2 over 3M6F its a long long way removed from it's recent history of being a Class 2 race over 4M, then briefly a Listed 4M race.

Novices will now bracketed for certain Festival races, with maybe a move of one race up or down the trips.

2M Arkle
2M4F Turners
3M1/F RSA
3M6F NHC

The Marsh/Turners has integrated nicely in now and the NHC is joining in too.

[ComplyOrDie]

Perfect, thanks Saxon Warrior I knew there'd be a few reasons behind it, but couldn't seem to locate it

[Lobos]

A little worried re GDC now after the AI news. Mullins said he was more forward than his other horses some time ago and ready for a run. No sign of him since then and very little mentioned. He desperately needs an entry/declaration and soon ! Perhaps he too has had an issue and will end up in the Stayers ??

[Run4Home]

A little worried re GDC now after the AI news. Mullins said he was more forward than his other horses some time ago and ready for a run. No sign of him since then and very little mentioned. He desperately needs an entry/declaration and soon ! Perhaps he too has had an issue and will end up in the Stayers ??

Should run at Lep.

[ComplyOrDie]

A little worried re GDC now after the AI news. Mullins said he was more forward than his other horses some time ago and ready for a run. No sign of him since then and very little mentioned. He desperately needs an entry/declaration and soon ! Perhaps he too has had an issue and will end up in the Stayers ??

He's got an entry for next Tuesday

[PresentingPercy]

A little worried re GDC now after the AI news. Mullins said he was more forward than his other horses some time ago and ready for a run. No sign of him since then and very little mentioned. He desperately needs an entry/declaration and soon ! Perhaps he too has had an issue and will end up in the Stayers ??

He has an entry for the 2M5F Chase on the Tuesday, I'd be worried if he's not declared however. Probably waiting for soft ground, which judging by the rain we got in Dublin overnight and this morning should be ideal for the going in Leopardstown.

[Lobos]

Great. Cheers guys. At least we know if he's not declared Tuesday then the cash out buttons can firmly be pressed !

[charlie]

A little worried re GDC now after the AI news. Mullins said he was more forward than his other horses some time ago and ready for a run. No sign of him since then and very little mentioned. He desperately needs an entry/declaration and soon ! Perhaps he too has had an issue and will end up in the Stayers ??

Entered on 28th. Start him at 2m5f as Willie likes, then send him over 3 miles, then go to Cheltenham. Thats a fine prep.

[Quevega]

Entered on 28th. Start him at 2m5f as Willie likes, then send him over 3 miles, then go to Cheltenham. Thats a fine prep.

Which 3 mile race do you reckon ?

If he runs and wins well at xmas I'd say he's a certainty for the Moriarty at Dublin.

[jack1092]

Which 3 mile race do you reckon ?

If he runs and wins well at xmas I'd say he's a certainty for the Moriarty at Dublin.

Yep agreed- follow Monkfish/Easy Game/ABP route

[ToniC]

Which 3 mile race do you reckon ?

If he runs and wins well at xmas I'd say he's a certainty for the Moriarty at Dublin.

from my bit on Mullins RSA horses in the members area:

”Somewhat bizarrely, of Mullins 19 prior runners here, only 5 of them had completed a chase over a distance of 2m7 or further, the vast majority of them attempting to test their stamina at such a distance for the first time; unsurprisingly, the 5 runners with experience of the trip accounted for both winners. ”

Horses that have ran in a chase over the distance or close to it before are 18.18% win/45.45% place, those that haven’t are 0%/28.57%.

[Quevega]

from my bit on Mullins RSA horses in the members area:

”Somewhat bizarrely, of Mullins 19 prior runners here, only 5 of them had completed a chase over a distance of 2m7 or further, the vast majority of them attempting to test their stamina at such a distance for the first time; unsurprisingly, the 5 runners with experience of the trip accounted for both winners. ”

Horses that have ran in a chase over the distance or close to it before are 18.18% win/45.45% place, those that haven’t are 0%/28.57%.

Yep, that's why I started this discussion as I think the 2 runs both at 2m 5f do not translate to success historically.
Cooldine did it, although he had 3 runs.

It's looking like Willie may have plenty to run in Dublin and that should sort them out.

[Istabraq]

Just imagine the shake up if Henry says Bob O will be looking at this race...

[Atlantic Viking]

Mullins when asked about Galopin Des Champs without hesitation said "He will go to the 2 mile 5 in Leopardstown"