2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Atlantic Viking]

I know he fell at Carlisle on debut, but I thought his jumping up to the fall was exceptional for a chase debut. He was really good. Massive tick, even though he fell.

Sorry to be pedantic but he didn't actually fall. He stumbled/sprawled to the point he almost may as well have done and the jockey had no chance, but he didn't fall and did remarkably well to somehow stay upright.

Have to admit that while i'm already on to a decent extent (almost entirely due to this place, as usual, identifying him at nice prices ), i'm not completely sold on Ahoy Senor. I worry that, although it clearly wasn't his trip, his unseat at Carlisle came at the 2nd fence he was under pressure at. At Newbury he jumped like a big mistake is never going to be far away. He just doesn't fill me with huge amounts of confidence even though it's clear he is more than capable and there's a fair old engine inside. He didn't really come under pressure at Newbury as the engine was enough to see them all off, but it's difficult watching it not to wonder if the engine will be enough against a BGM or GDC if they can stick with him.

As you say, the jumping right thing throws in an added question mark. He is obviously a novice though and there's nearly 4 months between that Newbury run and the festival, a reasonable amount of improvement and you've got a total weapon of a horse, it's not as though he can't jump. I feel like the improvement will probably need to come though at this level, I can't see at this point how some quarters are getting carried away with GC '23 talk.

Apologies for boring on but here's my incredibly unscientific notes from re-watching the Newbury run:

Fence
1 - Jumped right
2 - Right
3 - Ok
4 - Excellent
5 - Thinks about it/hesitates, little stumble.
6 - Right
7 - Right
8 - Water jump, does a deer impression, gets in too tight and looks like he almost forgets there's something to jump, very odd jump
9 - Good but right
10 - Big, right
11 - Ok, right
12 - Right
13 - Right, nod on landing
14 - Ok
15 - Very good
16 - Tight, right
17 - Right
18 - Good

[Istabraq]

I really really really want to pull the trigger on Ahoy Se?or @ 6/1

Anyone fancy reassuring me or convincing me? Go for it, I'm all ears....

Personally I think the price is poor, don’t get me wrong I can see why you like the horse but I’ve long held the view this years staying novice chase division could be the best in a long time which could/should make this and the NHC very strong renewals.
I thought the likes of Stattler and Vanillier would be heading to the NHC but noises around those two seem more positive towards this race now and if connections believe they have the speed for this race it would strengthen this renewal.
If I remember rightly you are a big GDM fan and must still harbour hopes of getting here, we haven’t seen GDC but an impressive chase debut and he goes back to the head of the market.
Bravemansgame is a horse you’d love to own, genuine and game, I find it baffling how he finds himself at the head of the market but he can’t be dismissed.
If Ahoy Senor were a 12/1 shot I wouldn’t have responded, but at 6/1 with 3 months of the clock to run and plenty of good horses to beat he wouldn’t be for me…

[robith]

I do wonder if the key part of the Kauto Star will be the early part as Bravemansgame with his neat jumping and effectiveness on a sharp track could put Ahoy under pressure, Ahoy will be doing the best work late on like Newbury if he is in contention.

I could see Bravemansgame winning here and Ahoy reversing form in the RSA, you might want to just chance a smaller bet at 6/1 with cash out?

It's obviously a stat juiced by Might Bite falling, but the winner of the Kauto Star has never won this race

[Madmoose]

It's obviously a stat juiced by Might Bite falling, but the winner of the Kauto Star has never won this race

Although I have only backed for the RSA I wouldn’t be surprised if they had another go at Bob over fences with Bravemansgame.

[Quevega]

Does anyone think ? (someone's probably alluded to it already no doubt).

Galopin des Champ firstly needs to be running in the next couple of weeks for one.

Even if he does and wins, he's probably only going to run only one more time before Cheltenham.
So with the encouraging performances so far from Capodanno & Stattler.
And Willie's arkle options having thinned out.
Does Galopin des Champs become a real possibility for the JLT/Marsh/Turners.

If Paul Townend continues to be in good form then he may also have some sway in this decision.
For a start he will not be saying to Willie that stattler needs four miles.

[Craigy14]

Does anyone think ? (someone's probably alluded to it already no doubt).

Galopin des Champ firstly needs to be running in the next couple of weeks for one.

Even if he does and wins, he's probably only going to run only one more time before Cheltenham.
So with the encouraging performances so far from Capodanno & Stattler.
And Willie's arkle options having thinned out.
Does Galopin des Champs become a real possibility for the JLT/Marsh/Turners.

If Paul Townend continues to be in good form then he may also have some sway in this decision.
For a start he will not be saying to Willie that stattler needs four miles.

I’ve definitely thought about it and hoped to forget it would happen

In seriousness though, Stattler and Capo are also surely only likely to have one more run you’d think too? DRF for all 3 to sort the pecking order and loser goes against Bob?
Unless they skipped the DRF and took in smaller races mid jan mid feb (not sure if there’s anything to suit). Both unlikely to run over Xmas.

That would be my guess.

[OscarWhisky]

Quevega I had the same thought yesterday,

In fact it was a worse one.

If Riviere beats Ferny at Xmas I could envisage this horrible scenario.....

Bob - Arkle
GDC - JLT/Turners/Marsh

Leaving Willy then to load up on Stattler and Capo for the RSA (to battle with BMG and Ahoy) and OntheRopes as his NHC horse.

It doesn't bear thinking about...... but it didn't stop me.

The ripple effect of Appreciate It going over hurdles may be huge.

Sorry All.

[jack1092]

Does anyone think ? (someone's probably alluded to it already no doubt).

Galopin des Champ firstly needs to be running in the next couple of weeks for one.

Even if he does and wins, he's probably only going to run only one more time before Cheltenham.
So with the encouraging performances so far from Capodanno & Stattler.
And Willie's arkle options having thinned out.
Does Galopin des Champs become a real possibility for the JLT/Marsh/Turners.

If Paul Townend continues to be in good form then he may also have some sway in this decision.
For a start he will not be saying to Willie that stattler needs four miles.

Very possible? Won nicely over the distance already.

Lots seem to think Stattler is much speedier than first thought, so maybe him? But then WPM suggests he's a boat so god knows.

[Quevega]

I’ve definitely thought about it and hoped to forget it would happen

In seriousness though, Stattler and Capo are also surely only likely to have one more run you’d think too? DRF for all 3 to sort the pecking order and loser goes against Bob?
Unless they skipped the DRF and took in smaller races mid jan mid feb (not sure if there’s anything to suit). Both unlikely to run over Xmas.

That would be my guess.

This could be true, you'd think at least 2 of them will run in dublin, as there's probably only the ten up novices left after that.
Whichever skips Dublin out of those 2, if either do would be a big clue as to which one they might want to consider for the four miler.
Also if one of those runs in mid january would also possibly indicate plans, maybe.

[knockando]

Does anyone think ? (someone's probably alluded to it already no doubt).

Galopin des Champ firstly needs to be running in the next couple of weeks for one.

Entered up on 28th in the Beginners chase over 2m 5 - let’s hope to god he shows up…

[Saxon Warrior]

Ontheropes and Capo the favs to go to the NHC a.t.m.

Galopin and Gaillard the RSA

Stattler the RSA, or maybe the Marsh.

Others may fill in to the Marsh, Ciel de Neige, Jungle, Sam.

Ferny and Blue Lord the Arkle

[Craigy14]

This could be true, you'd think at least 2 of them will run in dublin, as there's probably only the ten up novices left after that.
Whichever skips Dublin out of those 2, if either do would be a big clue as to which one they might want to consider for the four miler.
Also if one of those runs in mid january would also possibly indicate plans, maybe.

Yeah exactly, if they found a race mid/early Jan for Stattler he’d manage that then the DRF.

[ComplyOrDie]

Ontheropes and Capo the favs to go to the NHC a.t.m.

You've probably noted why in one of your many useful write ups, but can you remind me again why Capo would be one of the favs for the NHC?

On the eye he looked to have enough pace to get back up against a couple of stayers. His breeding also does not suggest a trip. So I am intrigued as to why the NHC is the race for him

[OscarWhisky]

Ontheropes and Capo the favs to go to the NHC a.t.m.

Galopin and Gaillard the RSA

Stattler the RSA, or maybe the Marsh.

Others may fill in to the Marsh, Ciel de Neige, Jungle Junction, Sam.

Ferny and Blue Lord the Arkle

Haut En Couloers too (albeit I bet I've spelled that incorrectly!). Entered up over Crimble.

[jack1092]

Ontheropes and Capo the favs to go to the NHC a.t.m.

Galopin and Gaillard the RSA

Stattler the RSA, or maybe the Marsh.

Others may fill in to the Marsh, Ciel de Neige, Jungle Junction, Sam.

Ferny and Blue Lord the Arkle

Jungle Junction.....Jungle Boogie...

I'd say something better would rock up in the Marsh myself, but i guess it's a case of Bob maybe not being worth taking on.