2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[charlie]

Hardly anyone has mentioned El Fabiolo. I think he could be a huge player in this or the Supreme. Mullins speaks very highly of him and he was most impressive last time. He will have a big say how Willie splits his Novices imo and should definitely not be dismissed at all.

Might. I don't think he's being dismissed so to speak, he just doesn't merit lots of discussion. He's won a terrible maiden hurdle albeit well, and was 0/2 in France. Potentially exciting and could be a player in time, but thats it. Given the barrel load of novices in the double green who look useful and then fail to cut it at the top level, it's more than a little premature IMO to think he will shake up proceedings at a yard with as much depth as Willies, but the bullish comments are fairly uncharacteristic, so perhaps he is very good. I'd far rather see 25/1 pass me by and take a bigger position once I have some substance at a shorter price, than back 'impressive' winners of nothing maiden novice hurdles - tends to devour a P&L IMO.

[Lobos]

He's entered up with the best of them at the DRF and I fully expect him to take up one of those entries so we'll know for sure if he's a player then.

[Leman14]

What if Gringo D'aubrelle beats Dysart on Sunday?

I haven't read anything about this horse yet..

If GD'A beats DD over 2m, then I'd suggest that GD'A would go the Supreme route.
He's already been put firmly in his place by Stage Star over 2m 4f - so either trip didn't suit - or plotting for a H'Cap

[Craigy14]

I also think the comparisons with Minella Indo are not right either. MI never won over less than 3m and never looked like doing so. He is an out and out Stayer and always looked that way. JWM has already showed more pace than him and has already won over 2 1/2 miles posting quick sectionals late on as per BOF's post. He is not a slow horse and imo would be equally as effective in the Ballymore. His next run will decide where he goes. As for him clearly being viewed as Robcour's best Novice, those are not my words. I've taken that from other posters on here with closer links so I'll not repeat that.

I’ve not seen anyone compare him to Minella Indo, apologies if they have, I’ve seen folk saying he could go a similar/same route as that’s what the racing manager mentioned some time ago.

He looks a lot more like MI than pacey like Bob that is certain. Lobos you tend to let the visuals do the talking when assessing horses, was there anything in his maiden win that screamed change of gear or pace? To my eye and watching the replay it was pretty clear, he didn’t pull away from Kilcruit (who may have went wrong, tbc) much at all. He put a length between them when the buttons were pressed then pulled further away (likely if Kilcruit went wrong), he then tired and as COD says above Minella Cocconer is closing on him having race fitness.

Grand Jury is currently their best novice having ran a cracker in the Lawlors, it’s Grade 1 form. Naas is a very stiff finish and given the strong headwind (Gordon’s comments after speaking to jockeys) I’d say grand jury will be a big player here depending who comes and what performances are put up before Cheltenham. Ginto will likely head to the Albert Bartlett imo and hollow games will have to prove if better than than handicaps to book his place in either race.

Then down to the likes of Dysart Dynamo etc to get up the level shown so far.

[jack1092]

Hardly anyone has mentioned El Fabiolo. I think he could be a huge player in this or the Supreme. Mullins speaks very highly of him and he was most impressive last time. He will have a big say how Willie splits his Novices imo and should definitely not be dismissed at all.

Not dismissed at all- he's 6-1 for the 2m g1.

Well bred and ran in a listed event in France- surely a good sign.

The previous trainers seem quite shrewd with their results in FR so i'd say it's a decent sign he was considered for a listed event.

Issue potentially, WPM said he loved the mud. So might not be at his best in spring, early days with that though.

I like him but he's hard to gauge for sure.

[Maxfield]

Wasn't really sure where to put this post as it relates to a few races, but with some of the fav's or top of the market horses in the novice hurdle/chase races, are people a little concerned that it looks like that some of these horses might only get two runs in before Cheltenham?

The races I'm talking about are the Ballymore, Bartlett, Turners and the Festival Novice Chase. Could this be a year where a few fav's get turned over due to lack of experience, as I've been looking back at all these races over the years and I can't see many who have had less than two runs and then going on to win at Cheltenham. Most horses have had at least 3 runs.

The main horses in question are: Bob Olinger, Dysart Dynamo, Journey With Me, Gerri Colombe, Galopin Des Champs. Are they all likely to get three runs in before Cheltenham and if they don't could that lack of experience go against them as the past would say that it might?

I'm hoping not....

[That Horse]

Grand Jury is currently their best novice having ran a cracker in the Lawlors, it’s Grade 1 form.

Completely agree with that. Surely must be improvement to come as well, bookies don't know what to make of him either as he's between 14-25/1

[Eggs]

….ahead of this weekend, Sky have added ‘win & Bally’:

Dysart 8-1
Hawai Game 40-1

[charlie]

DD a sea of blue for this today

[Lobos]

DD a sea of blue for this today

A little odd in view of where most previous Mullins Moscow winners have ended up . If he wins impressively at the weekend surely the Supreme has to be favourite?? I don't see it any other way.

[ComplyOrDie]

A little odd in view of where most previous Mullins Moscow winners have ended up . If he wins impressively at the weekend surely the Supreme has to be favourite?? I don't see it any other way.

Ordinarily I would agree, but no chance, IMO, that Willie sends both Sir Gerhard and DD to the Supreme, when he can see the hand that Nicky has.

I don't think a quick 2m like the Supreme would suit DD. I know he won easy at Cork, but his hurdling got better as the race went on, in a Supreme I could see him being left behind if he jumped like that. I think Danny Mullins also noted about his hurdling on 'Road To Cheltenham'.

He's a fairly big horse too, I know they've mentioned being a chaser in time, and I know previously they said the same of Appreciate It, but lets be honest, the Supreme is looking much hotter than last season, regardless of how well Appreciate It went and won the race. Nicky had nothing in it last season, and he has been Willies main rival (when they've both got decent horses) in recent seasons.

[jack1092]

A little odd in view of where most previous Mullins Moscow winners have ended up . If he wins impressively at the weekend surely the Supreme has to be favourite?? I don't see it any other way.

While i hope and think he ends up here.

Do think the market moving more here and not on the supreme given he'd be winning over 2m is a little strange.

[jack1092]

….ahead of this weekend, Sky have added ‘win & Bally’:

Dysart 8-1
Hawai Game 40-1

8-1 for dysart to win on sunday and ballymore? really?

[Ballyfitz]

While i hope and think he ends up here.

Do think the market moving more here and not on the supreme given he'd be winning over 2m is a little strange.

With the prices for the Ballymore now best 7/1 and generally shorter (and the ridiculous “win today and…” price) - the 6/1 for any race that can be boosted to 13/2 with Hills has to be an option. No cash out though.

[charlie]

A little odd in view of where most previous Mullins Moscow winners have ended up . If he wins impressively at the weekend surely the Supreme has to be favourite?? I don't see it any other way.

You look at things very definitively when the reality (esp with Willie) include lots of moving parts. We can't take the market moves as anything other than a guide, but Sir Gerhard drifting in Ballymore and shortening in Supreme, coupled with the complete opposite move for DD, suggests the way they are currently leaning. Whilst a win over 2m obviously enhances DD's reputation over 2m, if he wins well and with seemingly plenty left, lots might legitimately say (depending on the manner of the win, if he wins), that a step up could bring about further improvement. Whilst Willie is a creature of habit and Vautour, Douvan and Min all went Moscow Flyer and then Supreme, I wouldnt put DD in their bracket, and I certainly don't think anyone is looking at the Supreme as a more winnable race than the Ballymore. All these reasons mean a step up is definitely not out of the question.