2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Lobos]

Norton's, I think answering the first question is difficult because we just don't know how the English form compares with the Irish and the second question is even harder as he's never ran anything like 2m 5f and if he now goes straight to Cheltenham as expected then that just makes things even more complicated. IMO it'll be a very brave call sending him to the longer race based on what he's done thus far. Do I want him to go to the Supreme.....not really as I've made a decent position for myself with Jonbon and C Hill and rather him turn up in the Ballymore which in turn would probably push JWM to the Albert which would be the perfect scenario for me. However, I can't see him going anywhere else now apart from the opener.

[Hussard]

The last ten winners of the Ballymore had won over 2m 4f or further.

DD looked a 2m horse today. He could have gone to the DRF over 2m 6f if they thought he was a Ballymore horse.

If I was his owner I’d want serious reasoning for a switch up 5f after winning this easily over 2m.

[MadeinJapan]

The current Exchange market for this race is absolutely wild. Nobody seems to have a clue

There’s barely been anything traded on it either… 57k all in & if you laid Dysart Dynamo for 16 quid there’d be nothing left to lay him at…

What’s even more mad is Hills have him as fav at 3/1 for this yet Sky have him 13/2… can’t think of a bigger price discrepancy at a head of a market I’ve ever seen. Hills obv. have big liabilities on him here & have bottled it already.

[ToniC]

The last ten winners of the Ballymore had won over 2m 4f or further.

DD looked a 2m horse today. He could have gone to the DRF over 2m 6f if they thought he was a Ballymore horse.

If I was his owner I’d want serious reasoning for a switch up 5f after winning this easily over 2m.

His owners will probably Never have another one like him, even if 2 miles is his optimum ironically their best chance of a cheltenham winner could be to go for the longer race. What gives him more on his plate an extra 5 furlongs (nobody knows but he looks like he’d deal with it and pedigree would suggest so too) or constitution hill and jonbon?

His chance of winning a supreme couldn’t be much more than 25-30%. He’d be odds on in the Ballymore.

[Big Bucks]

Norton's, I think answering the first question is difficult because we just don't know how the English form compares with the Irish and the second question is even harder as he's never ran anything like 2m 5f and if he now goes straight to Cheltenham as expected then that just makes things even more complicated. IMO it'll be a very brave call sending him to the longer race based on what he's done thus far. Do I want him to go to the Supreme.....not really as I've made a decent position for myself with Jonbon and C Hill and rather him turn up in the Ballymore which in turn would probably push JWM to the Albert which would be the perfect scenario for me. However, I can't see him going anywhere else now apart from the opener.

How would DD come here push JWM to the Bartlett? I don't get that.

I would like it, but don't understand your logic.

[Quevega]

Birthday making you all philosophical today?

It was going to be more descriptive with expletives but was on my phone so no emoji's, so went a little more zen instead.

[Quevega]

I wake up and it's still carrying on.
Unbelievably Lobos is leading the way for realism.

The question norton's asked would be exactly the same answers if either henderson pair went to the ballymore instead.
If Henderson thinks they are definite 2 milers.
So tell me why would willie move a headstrong powerhouse to the ballymore ?

And the lawlor's entry people are hanging on.
Firstly wilie enters horses all over the place.
But more importantly, it was a grade 1, so who could he have entered anyway ?

He barely had any geldings that had won a race yet ?
Most were winning their maiden over xmas. Or had been beaten in a maiden.
It's probably more off putting that he didn't run as no setback was reported and willie has probably thought that he is too keen still. So opted to run just the one. That's a guess but so is that he was an intended runner.

I still think there is a chance he ends in ballymore but it's far less likely.
He could also win the race, but I'd actually prefer a Ginto type against a horse with his style of running for the ballymore.

[Benjy23]

There's every chance at the time of the Lawlors entry Mullins was leaning towards the he Ballymore with him, and yesterday will have changed his thinking... Still time for this to change again of course

[Altior]

How would DD come here push JWM to the Bartlett? I don't get that.

I would like it, but don't understand your logic.

I agree it wouldn't push JWM to the Bartlett even if the latter runs there anyway.

[Craigy14]

I wake up and it's still carrying on.
Unbelievably Lobos is leading the way for realism.

The question norton's asked would be exactly the same answers if either henderson pair went to the ballymore instead.
If Henderson thinks they are definite 2 milers.
So tell me why would willie move a headstrong powerhouse to the ballymore ?

And the lawlor's entry people are hanging on.
Firstly wilie enters horses all over the place.
But more importantly, it was a grade 1, so who could he have entered anyway ?

He barely had any geldings that had won a race yet ?
Most were winning their maiden over xmas. Or had been beaten in a maiden.
It's probably more off putting that he didn't run as no setback was reported and willie has probably thought that he is too keen still. So opted to run just the one. That's a guess but so is that he was an intended runner.

I still think there is a chance he ends in ballymore but it's far less likely.
He could also win the race, but I'd actually prefer a Ginto type against a horse with his style of running for the ballymore.

I’m staying out all the predicting

But on Dysart, a mate on mine said it had a breathing issue (messaged me 23/12) which may have pointed to why there were no Xmas entries. Entered in the Lawlors as you say but possibly wasn’t ready for the race would be my guess 02/01 so not long after Xmas.

Now I bail out until we have a horse to talk about

[Odin]

I still think there is a chance he ends in ballymore but it's far less likely.

Reading this thread, isn't this how everyone sees it after yesterday? The debate more appears to be about whether DD needs/could go the extra 5f which he probably could (to me) based on yesterday's performance as he wasn't stopping, but doesn't mean he should (and that kills me to say given I've only backed him for the Ballymore!)

[ComplyOrDie]

The last ten winners of the Ballymore had won over 2m 4f or further.

As I've been told on here, many a time, Willie won't care much for stats or trends, in fact, if there is one trainer who is likely to break them for the festival, it would be Willie.

It was one stat that I had noted earlier in the season, so it would be a concern, however, as above, this is Willie we are talking about.

[spotthediff]

If Willie sends both Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard to the Supreme (and I think that is entirely possible), who do you think will represent him in the Ballymore? I think there is some potential value out there. My eye is drawn to El Fabiolo and Classic Getaway.

[ComplyOrDie]

RP report on Guily Billy "vet said the gelding was found to have fractured a small notch of the hoof wall at the left fore lateral coronet"

Not a clue what this means or how much of an impact it would have had, so if anyone could put it in layman's terms that would be good.

[OverTheAnvil]

RP report on Guily Billy "vet said the gelding was found to have fractured a small notch of the hoof wall at the left fore lateral coronet"

Not a clue what this means or how much of an impact it would have had, so if anyone could put it in layman's terms that would be good.

The coronet is where the hoof wall grows from at the top of the hoof capsule. It depends on the damage to the coronet as they can range from horse lame in walk to the horse not knowing about it.

However if 500kg of horse is coming down on one hoof at a time in gallop is a lot of force through each hoof/limb. It’s like you having a crack at the base of your finger/toe nail then trying to running around on it.