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2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

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  • see unibet are biggest price on either jonbon and CH coming here

    anyone know if they are generally a good indicator on hendos pland

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    • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
      You have to worry why Gerri Colombe is 25/1 with Paddy Power though don't you ? Thats way out of sinc with others bookies. Identical to Bollinger's price in the RSA. Plenty on here keep saying that PP are the go to bookie for trying to identify the Irish horse's targets. If that's the case then surely he doesn't come here ? I've backed him at big odds for the Ballymore but am not convinced he'll end up there based on the above.
      It was a similar story with el fabiolo though too for willie mullins, you would think that a mullins trained horse owned by munir and suede winning easy as you like first time out would be cut fairly quickly after the race, especially after mullins said he's as good as laurina and saint roi in the interview afterwards, but he was still freely available at 33/1 with PP for days after the race.

      Maybe its the fact that gerri won at a smaller track while being ridden by denis o'regan has made them think for some reason that he is not one of the leading lights in elliotts stable, similar to el fabiolo winning at an unfashionable track like tramore, if they put in the exact same performances in a leopardstown maiden hurdle on a big race day maybe they would have gotten a bit more attention.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by fatherjohn View Post
        see unibet are biggest price on either jonbon and CH coming here

        anyone know if they are generally a good indicator on hendos pland
        Its funny, RTV tweeted earlier some Nicky comments re Simonsig going up to the Ballymore and he'll speak with owners. The market reaction to that should be both shorting for this, but the exact opposite has happened, and they've both drifted. I think that tells us all we need to know.

        Comment


        • Gerri Colombe has 3 other stable mates ahead of him in the Ballymore betting, Ginto, Mighty Potter and Minella Crooner, the first two named now have Grade 1s. This is probably keeping his price where it is. As stated above, by Charlie I think, it is probably the only bit of real value here at the moment, if you see value as a price north of 20/1. A quick look back at the form of all his 4 races, PtP, 2 x bumpers and the hurdle over xmas, his form is beginning to stack up. He's 4 out of 4 as well.

          Someone else said that it was only Denis O'Regan at something like a minor track. It was day 1 of the Christmas racing, 26 December. Jack Kennedy and Davy Russell were at Leopardstown and Jordan Gainford was at Limerick. Also, in Gordon's eyes, Down Royal is not a gaff track. It is not just the October meeting Gordon uses Down Royal.

          Comment


          • Interesting to see where they go next. If they’re dependant on somewhere with a good bit of cut can’t be putting all their eggs in Leopardstown basket

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            • I have a feeling we might be seeing Hendos ballymore horse Tuesday at Doncaster. City Chief earned an rpr of 130 behind party business (giving him 3 pounds) who was running well before falling in the challow. I think his 130 can be upgraded a good 4 or 5 pounds as he was caught in a pocket at exactly the wrong time before running on again in eye catching fashion. This compares reasonably with Horses at the front of the market in terms of fto RPRs ...Journey With Me 139, Ginto 128, Dysart Dynamo 139 and Stage Star 133.

              When Interviewed earlier today he mentioned how keen he was to test negative for COVID so he could attend Doncaster in person (he also has Russian ruler entered) and he keeps referring to other novices that haven’t fully played their hand yet. When I first watched his debut it crossed my mind that he might be his AB horse but having watched it again I think his late surge was pace rather than stamina having got out of his pocket. Also he is only 5 which wouldn’t be a tick from the trainers point of view I’m sure. Breeding wise the dam produced a more stoutly bred horse (sired by presenting) who’s two best performances were over 2m 4...

              he is best price 40s with sky bet ....for those interested in forming a book if he wins well Tuesday it’s reasonable to think these odds will tumble.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post
                (he also has Russian ruler entered)
                Cheers for this, hadn't noticed. RR was the one that kept popping up on a stable video tour when they asked various staff which horse they were excited about.

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                • Originally posted by Irish Rugby View Post
                  Gerri Colombe has 3 other stable mates ahead of him in the Ballymore betting, Ginto, Mighty Potter and Minella Crooner, the first two named now have Grade 1s. This is probably keeping his price where it is.
                  Add in the fact that Mighty Potter might be Supreme bound & Ginto could end up in the Albert Bartlett then the price about Gerri Colombe at 25s is even more appealing...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post
                    I have a feeling we might be seeing Hendos ballymore horse Tuesday at Doncaster. City Chief earned an rpr of 130 behind party business (giving him 3 pounds) who was running well before falling in the challow. I think his 130 can be upgraded a good 4 or 5 pounds as he was caught in a pocket at exactly the wrong time before running on again in eye catching fashion. This compares reasonably with Horses at the front of the market in terms of fto RPRs ...Journey With Me 139, Ginto 128, Dysart Dynamo 139 and Stage Star 133.

                    When Interviewed earlier today he mentioned how keen he was to test negative for COVID so he could attend Doncaster in person (he also has Russian ruler entered) and he keeps referring to other novices that haven’t fully played their hand yet. When I first watched his debut it crossed my mind that he might be his AB horse but having watched it again I think his late surge was pace rather than stamina having got out of his pocket. Also he is only 5 which wouldn’t be a tick from the trainers point of view I’m sure. Breeding wise the dam produced a more stoutly bred horse (sired by presenting) who’s two best performances were over 2m 4...

                    he is best price 40s with sky bet ....for those interested in forming a book if he wins well Tuesday it’s reasonable to think these odds will tumble.
                    He’s one I covered at 40s with Unibet. He was green first time & held in by the winner Party Business once they turned in (who had every chance when departing in the Challow) so with normal improvement City Chief could be in the mix. I suspect a win tomorrow & he’ll be a lot shorter in what looks an open race imo.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post
                      I have a feeling we might be seeing Hendos ballymore horse Tuesday at Doncaster. City Chief earned an rpr of 130 behind party business (giving him 3 pounds) who was running well before falling in the challow. I think his 130 can be upgraded a good 4 or 5 pounds as he was caught in a pocket at exactly the wrong time before running on again in eye catching fashion. This compares reasonably with Horses at the front of the market in terms of fto RPRs ...Journey With Me 139, Ginto 128, Dysart Dynamo 139 and Stage Star 133.

                      When Interviewed earlier today he mentioned how keen he was to test negative for COVID so he could attend Doncaster in person (he also has Russian ruler entered) and he keeps referring to other novices that haven’t fully played their hand yet. When I first watched his debut it crossed my mind that he might be his AB horse but having watched it again I think his late surge was pace rather than stamina having got out of his pocket. Also he is only 5 which wouldn’t be a tick from the trainers point of view I’m sure. Breeding wise the dam produced a more stoutly bred horse (sired by presenting) who’s two best performances were over 2m 4...

                      he is best price 40s with sky bet ....for those interested in forming a book if he wins well Tuesday it’s reasonable to think these odds will tumble.
                      I like him as well RB but hadn’t covered the Ballymore at the time. Although he was kept in he seemed to take a little while after jumping the second last to get going (admittedly not the best jump). He did seem to show a turn of foot eventually and after the last run down the second. It will be the debate of whether is was pace or stamina that allowed him to do that.

                      I might cover the Ballymore before tomorrow as well he’s always been 33/1 for both races (I think) and still is.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

                        I like him as well RB but hadn’t covered the Ballymore at the time. Although he was kept in he seemed to take a little while after jumping the second last to get going (admittedly not the best jump). He did seem to show a turn of foot eventually and after the last run down the second. It will be the debate of whether is was pace or stamina that allowed him to do that.

                        I might cover the Ballymore before tomorrow as well he’s always been 33/1 for both races (I think) and still is.
                        A clip of his 4yo ptp win below:



                        He won in a good time - 16sec better than average, 34 sec better than 4yo mares race (same day) & 4 sec better than 5yo race that day. Dam was a stayer & half brother to 2m 4f hurdle winner - so, like all ptp winners, bred to be a stayer.

                        Cost a few quid - not that that means a lot, other than a few good judges must have liked him! Think this is where he’ll end up - if good enough.

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                        • Originally backed for AB, now covered for this.
                          Thanks RB
                          Hes an interesting one in a wide open race

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                          • Elle Est Belle entered in the Leamington (2m 5f Grade 2) at Warwick at the weekend. They're clearly keen to take on the boys with her.

                            Second time I've seen them think of stepping her up in trip as well. And the Ballymore is lacking any standout, so can see the temptation.

                            Mares got any sort of respectable record in this? May have a look at that tonight.

                            Have City Chief for the AB myself as well. Looked a stayer to me the last day. But may have to review.
                            Last edited by Benjy23; 10 January 2022, 02:31 PM.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by charlie View Post
                              The Giant Bolster

                              Anything that's won with lots in hand in the high 130's or low 140's can obviously improve to cross that 150 RPR trends bar, it's just figuring out who it is.
                              As previously mentioned, I was / am hoping that Nickle Back could be that horse, having posted an RPR of 143 on his seasonal return (and just second hurdles start) at the start of October, but I have to confess that I'm now starting to get a bit worried. Having been advised by the trainer quite a few weeks ago that they were just waiting for softer ground and that he could be expected out again around Christmas, we've now had the Challow, Cheltenham's New Year's Day and Saturday's upcoming Warwick Ballymore trials, and still no entries.

                              I'm not going to send another email, but will just have to wait it out now. The best case scenario is that he's just had a minor setback and will still have time for another run before the Festival, a middling scenario is that he goes straight there without another run, and worst case scenario is that he's had a setback that will rule him out of the Festival - if that were the case it would be extremely disappointing, as I know that a few others on here are also keen on finding out just what his true level of ability could be.

                              Comment


                              • I heard no mention of JPR one here today. 21 I'm places only after today.
                                Very smart for an out of form tizzard stable as such.

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