2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[CJW]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...runners/197693

Interesting bits here, I know we have to take trainers comments with a pinch of salt but thought I'd share. I thought it was interesting he wouldn't be surprised if Hawai Game won the Moscow Flyer despite "looking second string". I know we've gone over the whole "plan b" debate about Willie's horses but Hawai Game isn't one I've seen discussed much here, with a decent run I don't see any reason why this one couldn't go along with Sir Gerhard and/or El Fabiolo and let Dysart Dynamo and Whatdeawant have a crack at the Ballymore. This race could be quite telling.

Interesting and not ideal. I think willie has alot if time for the ones he's getting from jp.

Waiting to see if his race preview shows any more clues.

Hawai Game went straight in the tracker after debut, Echoes in Rain won the same race. I need to watch the whole race back.

I don't understand the consistent blue for DD for this and no love in the supreme. I suppose bookies will obviously start cutting him for that aswell pre the Moscow. Even willie seems not convinced.

[CJW]

Just stating the facts. Won a maiden over 2m. Declared for Moscow flyer over 2m. Only other entry is over 2m at DRF.
perhaps a supreme horse?
even classed in the supreme novices on the road to Cheltenham.
where is he going to go if he wins the Moscow flyer?

He'll end up in the easiest winnable race. As usual. If Willie judges that the supreme he'll be there.

[Lobos]

If you cant understand why people think he's going to the ballymore then I don't know what to say..

Sometimes worth having a little look at the markets and how they're reacting, this could turn out to be a nice example for the years to come, we'll see.

If we could trust the markets we'd all be millionaire's

[darlojim]

If we could trust the markets we'd all be millionaire's

Ohh 100%, but I just have a feeling in this instance.. We will see, if I'm wrong then so be it I have him covered for the Supreme aswell

[Lobos]

Ohh 100%, but I just have a feeling in this instance.. We will see, if I'm wrong then so be it I have him covered for the Supreme aswell

Sweet cherry nipples.........and me !

[charlie]

Don't think the markets giving you any sort of inside info there to be honest. He's a bigger price in the Supreme because there's three standout horses at the top that will be very hard to beat.

The Ballymore looks poor at the moment and people are taking a chance on DD running there, amongst others. He's not exactly been smashed there either.
I've backed him for the ballymore and not the supreme but I'm far from sure he'll run there tbh.

12’s into 6’s across an Xmas period he hasn’t run over is hefty support, esp given the 2m entry.

[Benjy23]

12’s into 6’s across an Xmas period he hasn’t run over is hefty support, esp given the 2m entry.

Biggest bet matched on Betfair on him is about ?110. (That's pounds not price)

There's no strong fancies in the race so bookies won't have racked up much liability on the rest. It won't take much money to move the market at all in this instance.

They've made him a false fav/price imo. He's 3 pts bigger on the exchange even now.

[Winging The Last]

It’s all pretty straight forward really. There is only one race in Ireland over 2 1/2 miles before the festival and that is at the end of Feb. You would rather run a horse over shorter and move them up than run over further then drop them in trip for the festival.

So with the limited options and the fact that the 2m race at the DRF is now the go too trial for the Supreme in recent years for Willie rather than the Moscow Flyer, the Moscow Flyer is the perfect platform remaining for a Ballymore horse to run in before stepping up at Cheltenham

[Lobos]

That sounds really convincing WTL. You clearly haven't been drinking like me tonight !

[charlie]

Biggest bet matched on Betfair on him is about ?110.

There's no strong fancies in the race so bookies won't have racked up much liability on the rest. It won't take much money to move the market at all in this instance.

My point was that a halving in price in the absence of running AND being entered over 2m and not further, is significant, not just in itself or because of the amount wagered, but also because others from the same stable have gone the opposite way in the market. All this collectively paints a picture, and we’re not talking 12’s into 10’s here, he’s vying for favouritism ahead of horses we’ve seen over Xmas.

[robith]

So I'm clear we spent last week talking of the potential of Constitution Hill going up in trip, but it's now unfeasible DD would? Love this time of year

[darlojim]

My point was that a halving in price in the absence of running AND being entered over 2m and not further, is significant, not just in itself or because of the amount wagered, but also because others from the same stable have gone the opposite way in the market. All this collectively paints a picture, and we’re not talking 12’s into 10’s here, he’s vying for favouritism ahead of horses we’ve seen over Xmas.

You've said it so much better than what i did

[Benjy23]

My point was that a halving in price in the absence of running AND being entered over 2m and not further, is significant, not just in itself or because of the amount wagered, but also because others from the same stable have gone the opposite way in the market. All this collectively paints a picture, and we’re not talking 12’s into 10’s here, he’s vying for favouritism ahead of horses we’ve seen over Xmas.

Aye, and I'm just saying that in this instance it doesn't take much more than a couple of people taking a chance on him stepping up in trip. And I've just used the small stakes to demonstrate that.

It makes perfect sense for him to go here like, don't get me wrong. It's the easier race clearly and Mullins has others for the Supreme. Just saying I don't think the market move is based on insiders but rather considered guessers... Like some of us

[MadeinJapan]

So I'm clear we spent last week talking of the potential of Constitution Hill going up in trip, but it's now unfeasible DD would? Love this time of year

Music to my ears this debate… less Jonbon has to thrash in the Supreme the better

[jack1092]

It’s all pretty straight forward really. There is only one race in Ireland over 2 1/2 miles before the festival and that is at the end of Feb. You would rather run a horse over shorter and move them up than run over further then drop them in trip for the festival.

So with the limited options and the fact that the 2m race at the DRF is now the go too trial for the Supreme in recent years for Willie rather than the Moscow Flyer, the Moscow Flyer is the perfect platform remaining for a Ballymore horse to run in before stepping up at Cheltenham

Hate to sound like a twat but this has been mentioned like 10 times

hope the 10 others or so are correct nevertheless