2024 Handicaps

[Quevega]

Just fyi and others - I ran the numbers on the system and it's backed up reasonably long-term for some races but not all. Off top of my head, the races it definitely works for are:

County hurdle Boodles
Plate
Grand annual
Bartlett
Foxhunters

Sounds anecdotal to me

Define reasonably long term ?
And the "definitely works" part ? is this guaranteed ?

You're basically saying that if we all rock up on the day just before the off and back all the outsiders within a certain price range in the races mentioned, we can't lose ?
Are the winnings limitless ? Cos if so I'll pack everything else in and just do this for a couple of hours a year.

It's a fascinating angle that Many Clouds brought up and I wouldn't put anybody off giving it a try but it is not a guaranteed system and is not that easy to do. You also need full commitment and not get fed up with it if the first couple of races go against you.

[Quevega]

It definitely feels like a statement that we would all wish to be true as it would give everybody great comfort to know that time, effort and understanding drives reward.

I guarantee that this is true Rooster Booster

It is not a guarantee of success or that you'll be more rewarded than those who don't bother.
But it is fundamentally true that time, effort and understanding generally drives reward.

There is no guarantee that you will have a shit if you eat for three days solid.
But there's more chance you will than someone who doesn't eat for three days.

[AaronLad]

I guarantee that this is true Rooster Booster

It is not a guarantee of success or that you'll be more rewarded than those who don't bother.
But it is fundamentally true that time, effort and understanding generally drives reward.

There is no guarantee that you will have a shit if you eat for three days solid.
But there's more chance you will than someone who doesn't eat for three days.

Out of this discussion this is the best bit.
Probably shows my level of intelligence

[Rooster Booster]

I guarantee that this is true Rooster Booster

It is not a guarantee of success or that you'll be more rewarded than those who don't bother.
But it is fundamentally true that time, effort and understanding generally drives reward.

There is no guarantee that you will have a shit if you eat for three days solid.
But there's more chance you will than someone who doesn't eat for three days.

Yes I think it’s true for most things . I do however believe that the degree to which it is true is proportional to the amount of control we have over outcomes. I invest relentlessly in my daughter’s happiness and have a good understanding of what will drive her happiness but ultimately the extent to which I have control over it is very limited. Investing in my own happiness however tends to deliver a better return.

I kind of feel like betting antepost on Cheltenham handicaps is more the former. I’ve always found it easy to beat sp. I get the relationship between beating sp and sustainable profit. Just try telling the horses running in a Cheltenham handicap that

More seriously though. Of course there is no substitute for putting in the hard yards if you want to make money out of this. We are in complete agreement but I do thinks it’s a skill multiplied by effort deal rather than an effort dominated equation.

p.s I just realised that I forgot to place my planned roll ups using private Bryan to get a few key horses on side. He was 8s I think at one point earlier today and he’s just gone in at 11-4. See this is the level of ineptitude I have to deal with on a daily basis.

[Rooster Booster]

Out of this discussion this is the best bit.
Probably shows my level of intelligence

Yes he copied it off plato so don’t big him up

[Quevega]

Yes he copied it off plato so don’t big him up

That's not a real Plato quote, is it ?

[Rooster Booster]

That's not a real Plato quote, is it ?

No it would have been beyond him.

[Odin]

Sounds anecdotal to me

Define reasonably long term ?
And the "definitely works" part ? is this guaranteed ?

You're basically saying that if we all rock up on the day just before the off and back all the outsiders within a certain price range in the races mentioned, we can't lose ?
Are the winnings limitless ? Cos if so I'll pack everything else in and just do this for a couple of hours a year.

It's a fascinating angle that Many Clouds brought up and I wouldn't put anybody off giving it a try but it is not a guaranteed system and is not that easy to do. You also need full commitment and not get fed up with it if the first couple of races go against you.

For the Boodles and county hurdle only, the method has provided 18 winners from the 32 races going back to 2008. In that time 532 bets would have produced 310.58 points of profit at 1 point bets for an ROI of 57.94%. I'm happy to back those odds of long term success personally. Others can make their own decisions.

And it is actually very easy to do - you can choose a minimum Betfair sp you're happy to take, place the bet and it will put it on for you at the off if the price is right.

To answer your specific points:
Reasonably long term in this case for these two races is 16 years.
Is this guaranteed? No, nothing is guaranteed. To use your analogy, eat lots of the wrong food and you could end up constipated and not shit tomorrow. My personal opinion is that the new 4 runs for handicap rule means the county is more likely to have big priced winners now as the state man's and Saint rois of the world can't get in.
We can't lose? Saying something definitely works is very different to saying we can't lose.
Are the winnings limitless? No, where the hell has that question come from?
You need full commitment - isn't that what reasonably long-term is?

[Odin]

Hi Odin, remind me again of the system please, something about backing those above a certain odds threshold isn't it?

Yeah mate, back all horses with Betfair SP above 30 is many clouds system, the numbers I've quoted above are for a Betfair SP slightly shorter than that but the same principle applies

[Quevega]

For the Boodles and county hurdle only, the method has provided 18 winners from the 32 races going back to 2008. In that time 532 bets would have produced 310.58 points of profit at 1 point bets for an ROI of 57.94%. I'm happy to back those odds of long term success personally. Others can make their own decisions.

And it is actually very easy to do - you can choose a minimum Betfair sp you're happy to take, place the bet and it will put it on for you at the off if the price is right.

To answer your specific points:
Reasonably long term in this case for these two races is 16 years.
Is this guaranteed? No, nothing is guaranteed. To use your analogy, eat lots of the wrong food and you could end up constipated and not shit tomorrow. My personal opinion is that the new 4 runs for handicap rule means the county is more likely to have big priced winners now as the state man's and Saint rois of the world can't get in.
We can't lose? Saying something definitely works is very different to saying we can't lose.
Are the winnings limitless? No, where the hell has that question come from?
You need full commitment - isn't that what reasonably long-term is?

Good retort
I was only looking for more detail, so thanks.
Your original comments on their own appeared too good to be true.

Looks like we've narrowed it down to 2 races. Did the sums not add up for the others ?
Be easier for people to try with just the 2 anyhow.

I understand the SP betting on betfair the "not that easy" comment related to the liquidity and cash at peoples disposal and need to be in it for the long term.

For example, It simply won't work, or be as successful if you try it this year and the 2 favourites win those races so you don't end up bothering next year. Or try it for 4 years and are still not in profit so give up then. Or dip in and out of doing it. Obviously it could work if you get lucky and get off to a profitable start. Or dip in and out at the right times. You could even do it for every race for 10 years running but miss doing the one that pays out the big winner/profit.

Full commitment is not the definition of reasonably long term. I was just looking for detail on what timescale you'd used to come up with your original comment.

16 years is quite a long time/term. But that's a matter of opinion.

Like I said - I wouldn't put anybody off trying it, because there is a logic that the better value offered on the exchange provides a slight edge in the long term.
Just needed fleshing out a bit IMO.

Thanks again

PS, it might be as well disclosing what betfair SP you used to get these figures if you have it ?

[Odin]

Quevega yes understand that, I was just fighting combative response (your unique style), with combative response (not mine but why not). I thought you'd appreciate having the detail like that.

Sums added up on my BFSP number (which is slightly less than Many Clouds 30.0). If anyone really cares DM me rather than me putting it in the public section of the forum. I will be doing it on these races this year as the numbers add up to an extent that I'm happy with but I couldn't be bothered putting them all last night:

Boodles, County, Grand Annual, Plate, Bartlett.

I didn't do it last year, but I think all 5 were winners. That won't happen this year so people will have to be aware of that. Typically, you'll end up backing approx 10 horses per race so staking needs to reflect that and by extension you won't win enormous amounts from it unless you have an enormous starting bank. And even then, I'd argue you reduce the number of horses you'd back because if you go that high, your liquidity within the market could skew BFSP 20+ horses downwards.



As an aside, short term (i.e. less than 12 months so far) BFSP betting on specific systems can provide really good profit. Off the back of Many Clouds suggestion of this system I did some digging around things like trainers who peak in certain months or do well with certain types of horses. Currently working off 35 systems, the overarching profit is 338.6pts from 747pts bet. Within those 35 systems, 13 were/are losers despite having been winners for at least the last 3 years before I picked them out and how well this will work with the new fixture list I'm not sure but it's worth noting that methods like those explained above can provide some really good results. Not necessarily better than studying the form, but good all the same. (PS - I won't be divulging the systems I've used to get those profits as I can't be sure they work in the long term yet)

[Rooster Booster]

Quevega yes understand that, I was just fighting combative response (your unique style), with combative response (not mine but why not). I thought you'd appreciate having the detail like that.

Sums added up on my BFSP number (which is slightly less than Many Clouds 30.0). If anyone really cares DM me rather than me putting it in the public section of the forum. I will be doing it on these races this year as the numbers add up to an extent that I'm happy with but I couldn't be bothered putting them all last night:

Boodles, County, Grand Annual, Plate, Bartlett.

I didn't do it last year, but I think all 5 were winners. That won't happen this year so people will have to be aware of that. Typically, you'll end up backing approx 10 horses per race so staking needs to reflect that and by extension you won't win enormous amounts from it unless you have an enormous starting bank. And even then, I'd argue you reduce the number of horses you'd back because if you go that high, your liquidity within the market could skew BFSP 20+ horses downwards.



As an aside, short term (i.e. less than 12 months so far) BFSP betting on specific systems can provide really good profit. Off the back of Many Clouds suggestion of this system I did some digging around things like trainers who peak in certain months or do well with certain types of horses. Currently working off 35 systems, the overarching profit is 338.6pts from 747pts bet. Within those 35 systems, 13 were/are losers despite having been winners for at least the last 3 years before I picked them out and how well this will work with the new fixture list I'm not sure but it's worth noting that methods like those explained above can provide some really good results. Not necessarily better than studying the form, but good all the same. (PS - I won't be divulging the systems I've used to get those profits as I can't be sure they work in the long term yet)

Fascinating stuff. The strategy I am contemplating (strategy is far too grandiose), will be based on the assumption that the exchange markets are front of the market centric particularly close to the start of the race. I will have my short list prepared in advance of horses that I know to be capable of running big races trained by a trainer capable of getting a horse ready for a particular target.

I will then be mentally and dynamically stack ranking them based upon my own perception of value. This will be highly intuitive and highly fluid.

Often plunges or significant drifts are telling on the exchange and strong indicators of performance. I am far from convinced that is the case for festival handicaps where buzz horses, trend horses, clever horses etc tend to be way over bet and so it is imperative that I be flexible and open minded right to the last second almost.

It is likely I have done a very poor job of explaining what I am contemplating but I have been deliberately high level so as not to bore folks too much. If you have any data that in any way supports or detracts from my thinking I would be delighted if you could share with me(pm if you like) up to you

[Kevloaf]

Good read gents.

I find I don't really look at handicaps until NRNB, apart from a few really obvious ones (Icare Allen this year), and then usually the prices are bad when it's NRNB, bar some obvious ones.

After the DRF, when most of the other races (books) are getting fine tuned I run out of faffing to do there and switch towards working out the 9 handicaps.... with a lot of NRNB bets, and enjoy this part more than the book building all year, as it's the biggest challenge. Always leaving room for 'on the day' bets as that's also part of the puzzle.

When the entries, and weights are out.... it's time to start mining the information on here in diaries for the smart people that've done the work for me and try and put up a couple myself

[Joeski29]

Stellar Story to have his 4th run at DRF so would qualify and get a decent mark for the Pipe providing he doesn’t do too well

[Odin]

Rooster Booster

Wasn't fully sure what you meant, but here are some stats for the last 5 seasons. I've compared Cheltenham Festival handicaps (Festival) to all other handicaps (Non-festival) as per your comment about there maybe being a difference.

All handicap runners:
Festival: 47 wins from 1038 bets (4.53%) +146.7 BFSP
Non-festival: too many qualifiers to get an answer!

Plunges (SP at least 20% smaller than opening price):
Festival: 5 wins from 128 bets (3.91%) -40.83 BFSP
Non-festival: 7047 wins from 53956 bets (13.06%) +733.73 BFSP

Drifters (SP at least 20% greater than opening price):
Festival: 6 wins from 162 bets (3.7%) +93.06 BFSP
Non-festival: 6244 wins from 93849 bets (6.65%) -2221.17 BFSP

The choice of change in price was arbitrary and small sample for Cheltenham, but the different trend of results suggests that you are correct that there are enough good horses at Cheltenham that are overlooked to make a profit from the outsiders/drifters across all handicaps... now you've just gotta figure out which ones are the right ones!