2024 Handicaps

[Quevega]

Very different hiding/smuggling a horse that jogs along at the back of fields compared to one that is hard on himself pretty much every time he runs though.

Yep, different ways for sure.
But we know there are various ways.

[Rooster Booster]

Yep, different ways for sure.
But we know there are various ways.

yep not convinced on this one but I most definitely wish you fellas all the luck

[Quevega]

yep not convinced on this one but I most definitely wish you fellas all the luck

I'm not convinced either.

But if the race was being run today I'd be thinking "off that mark on a going day" he'd be an each way bet at 25-1.
So NRNB is 100% value.

If he did line up there would be plenty thinking the same as me and Aaron, and his SP almost certainly a lot shorter.

Venetia might run him again soon anyhow. He's won the Game Spirit the last 2 years.
That would be more annoying him winning that off 145 and then running in the annual off 10lb higher

For context, I do go into these handicaps mob handed (often 6-8 runners)
He'll be one of many if turning up.

Only 2 so far this season though in the annual.
Bookies pricing anything sexy at 10-1 or below, worst year so far for this, so we'll see how it develops.

[Kevloaf]

I can't leave him unbacked at 25/1 NRNB

I was tipping him for the QMCC last year

Not sure how much shorter he'd get..... on here he'll be very sexy but not often a non progressive type ends up head of the market?

[Rooster Booster]

I'm not convinced either.

But if the race was being run today I'd be thinking "off that mark on a going day" he'd be an each way bet at 25-1.
So NRNB is 100% value.

If he did line up there would be plenty thinking the same as me and Aaron, and his SP almost certainly a lot shorter.

Venetia might run him again soon anyhow. He's won the Game Spirit the last 2 years.
That would be more annoying him winning that off 145 and then running in the annual off 10lb higher

For context, I do go into these handicaps mob handed (often 6-8 runners)
He'll be one of many if turning up.

Only 2 so far this season though in the annual.
Bookies pricing anything sexy at 10-1 or below, worst year so far for this, so we'll see how it develops.

If im brutally transparent (mainly with myself) I’ve had far more success throwing half a point here or there at a handful of outsiders each handicap than I have with intelligent well thought out picks. Every year I invest many hours coming up with similar names to all the smarter folks than me on here and every year I seem to get bailed out by throwing last minute fivers at big odds on the exchange and simply getting lucky. Festival handicaps imo are so biased towards the front of the market in the minutes before the off that some of the value deeper down is insane. Many clouds I think it was highlighted a version of this with Betfair sp. The same applies to the exchange markets.

Horses trained by Venetia, Gordon, hughie Morrison, Noel Meade, Dan Skelton , Peter fahey, Nicky Henderson and many other well established trainers have won handicaps with horses close to or some way in excess of low 3 figures on the exchange.

im not in any way suggesting I have a method because I don’t. I am however suggesting that I’m not convinced hours of studying and/or intellgent/ thoughtful identification of campaigns/potential plots etc etc etc is any more fruitful in the long run than throwing a handful of fivers at a sensible group of outsiders on the exchange minutes before the off.

[Quevega]

I can't leave him unbacked at 25/1 NRNB

I was tipping him for the QMCC last year

Not sure how much shorter he'd get..... on here he'll be very sexy but not often a non progressive type ends up head of the market?

The odds shortening angle might pan out, although shorter is shorter, if he went off at 16-1 I'd be Mildly satisfied. Head of the market would be extremely unlikely for the reasons you've stated and connections.
However, this type of horse was pointed out last year by known tipsters after the recent trend for the handicapper dropping older horses sharpish. So he's likely to be one of those if declared IMO.
There is an outside chance he gets ignored, I acknowledge that. But don't anticipate it, and as mentioned previously he'll be one of many bets for me.

[Quevega]

If im brutally transparent (mainly with myself) I’ve had far more success throwing half a point here or there at a handful of outsiders each handicap than I have with intelligent well thought out picks. Every year I invest many hours coming up with similar names to all the smarter folks than me on here and every year I seem to get bailed out by throwing last minute fivers at big odds on the exchange and simply getting lucky. Festival handicaps imo are so biased towards the front of the market in the minutes before the off that some of the value deeper down is insane. Many clouds I think it was highlighted a version of this with Betfair sp. The same applies to the exchange markets.

Horses trained by Venetia, Gordon, hughie Morrison, Noel Meade, Dan Skelton , Peter fahey, Nicky Henderson and many other well established trainers have won handicaps with horses close to or some way in excess of low 3 figures on the exchange.

im not in any way suggesting I have a method because I don’t. I am however suggesting that I’m not convinced hours of studying and/or intellgent/ thoughtful identification of campaigns/potential plots etc etc etc is any more fruitful in the long run than throwing a handful of fivers at a sensible group of outsiders on the exchange minutes before the off.

I think if you read the last paragraph again you'll probably reflect that it doesn't make much sense.
Firstly, both approaches are kind of the same thing except the time spent side of it, and secondly what you've described is purely anecdotal.

Even though I've done the opposite of what you've said and spent a lot of time and research from January onwards - I've made a healthy profit on the handicaps overall for several years, that's still anecdotal. And the Profit vs Time spent will also be impossible to gauge.

Even Many Clouds system (which was fascinating) is also anecdotal.

However, what isn't anecdotal is the basic idea that the more time you spend on something - the more prepared you are- the more disciplined you are - the more experienced you become - and the more knowledge and skills you develop or gain at anything you turn your hand to - the less you have to rely on luck.

But I can totally understand the mindset of those that cannot be arsed with the handicaps at this stage and prefer to either leave them alone or just have a dabble near the time.

[Irish Rugby]

Many of you keeping your powder dry for the handicaps until the day of (I am) or have you all been sucked in like every year?

This is a good read though.

[That Horse]

I think if you read the last paragraph again you'll probably reflect that it doesn't make much sense.
Firstly, both approaches are kind of the same thing except the time spent side of it, and secondly what you've described is purely anecdotal.

Even though I've done the opposite of what you've said and spent a lot of time and research from January onwards - I've made a healthy profit on the handicaps overall for several years, that's still anecdotal. And the Profit vs Time spent will also be impossible to gauge.

Even Many Clouds system (which was fascinating) is also anecdotal.

However, what isn't anecdotal is the basic idea that the more time you spend on something - the more prepared you are- the more disciplined you are - the more experienced you become - and the more knowledge and skills you develop or gain at anything you turn your hand to - the less you have to rely on luck.

But I can totally understand the mindset of those that cannot be arsed with the handicaps at this stage and prefer to either leave them alone or just have a dabble near the time.

My Mrs likes Harry Potter so bets anything that has Potter in the name

[Exar Essay]

Many of you keeping your powder dry for the handicaps until the day of (I am) or have you all been sucked in like every year?

This is a good read though.

I’ve been pretty good so far. My general rule is the same as yours but I make exceptions for the graded horse in a handicappers clothing. On that basis I’ve bet Mistergif @ 12/1 for the County and Pipe NRNB.

The only other bet was one I thought was bloody obvious - Icare Allen @20/1 after qualifying for the Pertemps.

[Rooster Booster]

I think if you read the last paragraph again you'll probably reflect that it doesn't make much sense.
Firstly, both approaches are kind of the same thing except the time spent side of it, and secondly what you've described is purely anecdotal.

Even though I've done the opposite of what you've said and spent a lot of time and research from January onwards - I've made a healthy profit on the handicaps overall for several years, that's still anecdotal. And the Profit vs Time spent will also be impossible to gauge.

Even Many Clouds system (which was fascinating) is also anecdotal.

However, what isn't anecdotal is the basic idea that the more time you spend on something - the more prepared you are- the more disciplined you are - the more experienced you become - and the more knowledge and skills you develop or gain at anything you turn your hand to - the less you have to rely on luck.

But I can totally understand the mindset of those that cannot be arsed with the handicaps at this stage and prefer to either leave them alone or just have a dabble near the time.

I don’t understand which part doesn’t make sense (I don’t doubt you for one second by the way I just need you to elaborate). I was trying (obviously very badly) to say that I am very unclear what my roi in the long term would be with two very different approaches (in terms of time spent specifically on elements of selecting horses IN ADDITION to knowing the horse itself if that makes sense) I spend hours and hours on this hobby and focus a great deal on trying to know the horse and reach an opinion on the horse. That was not the time I was questioning. The time I was questioning (not concluding btw) was all the time spent looking at weights and measures, looking at the million possible plots or sub plots or trying to second guess motives, or trying to second guess the significance of finishing fourth in a pertemps qualifier, or a jockey looking over his shoulder, or the fact that a horse ran in france as a 3 yo and so on and so on and so on. I know many on here love this part of things and swear by it, I am just undecided whether that makes more sense than knowing a horse , seeing it is 80 on the exchange a minute before the off and assessing that as really good value. I can’t make that assessment without significant investment in knowing the horse but I don’t necessarily need to make a second level of investment in all the other stuff that would almost certainly take me away from that horse and lead me to one much closer to the front of the market.

I don’t subscribe automatically to your view expressed in the paragraph beginning however. It feels intuitively correct no doubt. It definitely feels like a statement that we would all wish to be true as it would give everybody great comfort to know that time, effort and understanding drives reward. I trust implicitly that you have made a profit on the handicaps. I appreciate you acknowledging the anecdotal nature of your statement but there is no need as there are very few on here that I take at face value more than yourself. I believe investing time is a good place to start but I also believe some people have a flair/mind for this and some less so. Some have the art nailed down more than others and some simply have better instincts. Yes there is a point at which luck is too big a factor because a person has invested too little to minimise it (was it Gary player or Arnold palmer said the more I practice the luckier I get) but I also believe that the law of diminishing returns kicks in much quicker than we would like to believe when it comes to return on each additional hour of investment once the investment has gone beyond a reasonable amount.

Clearly if you are being rewarded for your time and effort then it would be madness for you to change. My immediate thought to myself was why don’t I just match each of your handicap bets. You generously put them on here and it is clear they are very well thought out. If you were averse to that I presume you wouldn’t post your fancies. I am considering that option. My alternative is to continue with my already very considerable investment in knowing the horse and look at the exchange market minutes before the off and select my horses using a combination of my knowledge of the horse and my belief that the exchange markets are too front of market centric. So yes maybe the latter is a method of sorts but it’s not one I’ve ever adopted in isolation. It’s just been the one that’s bailed me out (anecdotally).

I apologise to all that I’ve bored senseless. I’m close to sending myself to sleep tbh.

[Odin]

Even Many Clouds system (which was fascinating) is also anecdotal.

Just fyi and others - I ran the numbers on the system and it's backed up reasonably long-term for some races but not all. Off top of my head, the races it definitely works for are:

County hurdle Boodles
Plate
Grand annual
Bartlett
Foxhunters

[Benjy23]

I’ve been pretty good so far. My general rule is the same as yours but I make exceptions for the graded horse in a handicappers clothing. On that basis I’ve bet Mistergif @ 12/1 for the County and Pipe NRNB.

The only other bet was one I thought was bloody obvious - Icare Allen @20/1 after qualifying for the Pertemps.

These are two of my only bets on handicaps as well.

I've not got the time to look into them in huge detail before entries. And also think the prices in general look pretty dire when I have glanced at the markets.

But there's the odd exception like Mistergif, where he's got the makings of being a chucked in G1 performer and going off like 5/1. And NRNB and double figures just makes perfect sense.

The Pertemps is also an exception to the other handicaps as the qualification rules make it a lot less painful to assess pre entries. Only got Icare Allen currently. However, despite being very obvious, Absolute Notions and Minella Cooner are both interesting entries for the upcoming Musselburgh qualifier... Absolute Notions been given 143.

[That Horse]

Just fyi and others - I ran the numbers on the system and it's backed up reasonably long-term for some races but not all. Off top of my head, the races it definitely works for are:

County hurdle Boodles
Plate
Grand annual
Bartlett
Foxhunters

Hi Odin, remind me again of the system please, something about backing those above a certain odds threshold isn't it?

[Quevega]

I don’t understand which part doesn’t make sense (I don’t doubt you for one second by the way I just need you to elaborate). I was trying (obviously very badly) to say that I am very unclear what my roi in the long term would be with two very different approaches (in terms of time spent specifically on elements of selecting horses IN ADDITION to knowing the horse itself if that makes sense) I spend hours and hours on this hobby and focus a great deal on trying to know the horse and reach an opinion on the horse. That was not the time I was questioning. The time I was questioning (not concluding btw) was all the time spent looking at weights and measures, looking at the million possible plots or sub plots or trying to second guess motives, or trying to second guess the significance of finishing fourth in a pertemps qualifier, or a jockey looking over his shoulder, or the fact that a horse ran in france as a 3 yo and so on and so on and so on. I know many on here love this part of things and swear by it, I am just undecided whether that makes more sense than knowing a horse , seeing it is 80 on the exchange a minute before the off and assessing that as really good value. I can’t make that assessment without significant investment in knowing the horse but I don’t necessarily need to make a second level of investment in all the other stuff that would almost certainly take me away from that horse and lead me to one much closer to the front of the market.

I don’t subscribe automatically to your view expressed in the paragraph beginning however. It feels intuitively correct no doubt. It definitely feels like a statement that we would all wish to be true as it would give everybody great comfort to know that time, effort and understanding drives reward. I trust implicitly that you have made a profit on the handicaps. I appreciate you acknowledging the anecdotal nature of your statement but there is no need as there are very few on here that I take at face value more than yourself. I believe investing time is a good place to start but I also believe some people have a flair/mind for this and some less so. Some have the art nailed down more than others and some simply have better instincts. Yes there is a point at which luck is too big a factor because a person has invested too little to minimise it (was it Gary player or Arnold palmer said the more I practice the luckier I get) but I also believe that the law of diminishing returns kicks in much quicker than we would like to believe when it comes to return on each additional hour of investment once the investment has gone beyond a reasonable amount.

Clearly if you are being rewarded for your time and effort then it would be madness for you to change. My immediate thought to myself was why don’t I just match each of your handicap bets. You generously put them on here and it is clear they are very well thought out. If you were averse to that I presume you wouldn’t post your fancies. I am considering that option. My alternative is to continue with my already very considerable investment in knowing the horse and look at the exchange market minutes before the off and select my horses using a combination of my knowledge of the horse and my belief that the exchange markets are too front of market centric. So yes maybe the latter is a method of sorts but it’s not one I’ve ever adopted in isolation. It’s just been the one that’s bailed me out (anecdotally).

I apologise to all that I’ve bored senseless. I’m close to sending myself to sleep tbh.

That's why I said it's the same, aside from the time difference that would be hard to monitor/compare.
You're just placing bets later than myself, but using knowledge and skill etc to choose the bets when you do place them.

You'll also use the plot type information/stuff as well, but possibly not as consciously as some. And you'll use it both ways - to bet or not to bet.
I won't bet a Mcmanus horse for example if I think the price isn't right, even if I think it's been plotted.

What didn't make sense was the thought process and wording of the second sentence in your last paragraph. Reading it literally and summarising it, suggests you're not convinced in the value of research and study vs throwing a few quid at big prices on the day. The only evidence to support or refute that is going to be anecdotal. However, you've now expanded on that and it makes a little more sense than my basic summary/first impression.

But the human virtues I listed are not anecdotal and apply to most things in life therefore the research and time spent method is obviously the most logical long term method for success in pretty much every endeavour. Doesn't matter when the bets are placed.

I suppose the difference between me and you is I'm likely to be on some of the Plot/target horses at bigger prices than you'll have access too. Some will win and some will lose. But we all know that backing a winning horse at 16-1 that goes off at an SP of much shorter is the key to success at this game. And so is being able to spot the same value in on on the day market using the exchange.

I don't put all my handicap bets on here by the way, I've plenty not mentioned and others not listed in the markets that I'm monitoring. But would happily disclose all bets made if anyone asks, as long as I'm happy I've got what I want on. The two/three seasons I had a diary are all still there with bets made in real time and the handicap results ROI etc. I think most years I've actually done better on the handicaps Not sure what that means though