2024 Handicaps

[Rooster Booster]

Rooster Booster

Wasn't fully sure what you meant, but here are some stats for the last 5 seasons. I've compared Cheltenham Festival handicaps (Festival) to all other handicaps (Non-festival) as per your comment about there maybe being a difference.

All handicap runners:
Festival: 47 wins from 1038 bets (4.53%) +146.7 BFSP
Non-festival: too many qualifiers to get an answer!

Plunges (SP at least 20% smaller than opening price):
Festival: 5 wins from 128 bets (3.91%) -40.83 BFSP
Non-festival: 7047 wins from 53956 bets (13.06%) +733.73 BFSP

Drifters (SP at least 20% greater than opening price):
Festival: 6 wins from 162 bets (3.7%) +93.06 BFSP
Non-festival: 6244 wins from 93849 bets (6.65%) -2221.17 BFSP

The choice of change in price was arbitrary and small sample for Cheltenham, but the different trend of results suggests that you are correct that there are enough good horses at Cheltenham that are overlooked to make a profit from the outsiders/drifters across all handicaps... now you've just gotta figure out which ones are the right ones!

Yes I did a shit job of explaining and yet despite this you got me exactly what I was looking (and hoping for). Perfect thank you, now like you say comes the hard part

[Hurricane fly]

Is there any news on Affordale Fury, wondering if he gets a 3rd run before a Kim Muir shout

[Black Dog]

Is there any news on Affordale Fury, wondering if he gets a 3rd run before a Kim Muir shout

According to Road to Cheltenham he won't be running. It was in the missing the festival thread .

[Hurricane fly]

According to Road to Cheltenham he won't be running. It was in the missing the festival thread .

Thanks, I must have missed that

[Eggs]

…Lads offer An Tobar 25-1 MP in their Specials. Also 25-1 Coral Cup.

[DenmanSacre]

Absolute Notions declared at Musselbrough in the Pertemps qualifier.

I thought they might leave him for the Pipe off that mark but maybe Robcour have got another one, like An Tobar, for that.

Let's see if Keith can do the magic and get a never closer 4th on Sunday.

[Eggs]

Absolute Notions declared at Musselbrough in the Pertemps qualifier.

I thought they might leave him for the Pipe off that mark but maybe Robcour have got another one, like An Tobar, for that.

Let's see if Keith can do the magic and get a never closer 4th on Sunday.

….BFSB have cut An Tobar today to 16-1 (from 20-1) MP. Still 25-1 in Lads specials but that’s ante-post. 14-1 NRNB is available.

[Benjy23]

West Balboa back in a handicap tomorrow. A mark of 143 would seem workable for a horse they thought was going to be Stayers standard and went off fav for the Long Walk last time out. 50k race tomorrow and with a Tristan claiming so maybe that's the plan rather than any Cheltenham handicap. Or maybe Aintree again? One to keep an eye on imo.

[Benjy23]

25s for Stellar Story in the Martin Pipe NRNB with PP. I'm in...

[darlojim]

25s for Stellar Story in the Martin Pipe NRNB with PP. I'm in...

Looks like he needs every inch of 3m to my eye.

[Benjy23]

Looks like he needs every inch of 3m to my eye.

Quite possibly... Hoping a big field and proper pace may be what he needs though.

[JackieMoon33]

Looks like he needs every inch of 3m to my eye.

Agree. I think he’s an out and out stayer but maybe not quite good enough.

[Kevloaf]

25s for Stellar Story in the Martin Pipe NRNB with PP. I'm in...

Didn't last long, in to 12s

[Benjy23]

Didn't last long, in to 12s

I can cash out as a 1/4 winner already

[Exar Essay]

Looks like he needs every inch of 3m to my eye.

If he headed that way and was a price on the day, I’d maybe bet him again in the Bartlett. Again it looked like he was done for toe in what looked a steady enough run race.