2024 Novice Chasers

[JackieMoon33]

I'm not charlie, but for me I was making direct comparisons to what Willie has done with Poliglotes previously and the two highest rated, Don Poli & Roi Des Francs both went to the RSA. Don Poli obviously won it but Roi Des Francs was disappointing.

Trainers do tend to be creatures of habit and know all about the pedigrees, that said Poliglote has produced plenty of decent enough 2 milers.

I’m not sure that really stacks up. Did Willie send Monkfish to the Supreme and Arkle just because Champagne Fever ‘won’ them?

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m not sure that really stacks up. Did Willie send Monkfish to the Supreme and Arkle just because Champagne Fever ‘won’ them?

No, but he did send Stattler to the Bartlett and then the NH Chase

You always get outliers in breeding, it's almost inevitable, not to mention sires who have a habit of producing speedier types as well as staying types, versatile sires.

Poliglote is fairly versatile but from Willies perspective he seems to produce top end staying chasers, in this case Don Poli, Roi Des Francs, and hopefully Fact To File. Plenty of shorter progeny in Fact To Files breeding on the dams side though, so I may well be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time

[JackieMoon33]

No, but he did send Stattler to the Bartlett and then the NH Chase

You always get outliers in breeding, it's almost inevitable, not to mention sires who have a habit of producing speedier types as well as staying types, versatile sires.

Poliglote is fairly versatile but from Willies perspective he seems to produce top end staying chasers, in this case Don Poli, Roi Des Francs, and hopefully Fact To File. Plenty of shorter progeny in Fact To Files breeding on the dams side though, so I may well be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time

Outlander went Ballymore and Turners. It’s not that any of those horses are outliers, Willie just sent them to the right races over the right trips.

[Exotic Dancer]

There were a LOT of options


I've done Exotic Dancer one too ...... my google search for that first lead me down a rabbit hole, you're lucky I've re-appeared.

Thanks; looks great.

Regarding Iroko; the time and the sectionals weren't anything special so essentially any rating is estimating how much he had in hand.

[charlie]

JackieMoon33 I agree with what COD said re Poliglote and also about outliers - breeding is not an exact science.

'Appreciate It won the same bumper as Fact To File over 2m4f' - watch the closing stages of this race back on split screen. AI sprints clear showing decent speed whereas FTF gets headed a stays and stays in a much slower time. It's actually an excellent example of when horses win the same race but the takeaway is completely different.

FTF could end up in Turners (and I've covered TWAR accordingly) but i'm fairly sure he'll follow the same path as Florida Pearl and hopefully do what Don Poli did and win the BANC.

Time will tell, hard to say much more without seeing him do his thing.

[JackieMoon33]

JackieMoon33 I agree with what COD said re Poliglote and also about outliers - breeding is not an exact science.

'Appreciate It won the same bumper as Fact To File over 2m4f' - watch the closing stages of this race back on split screen. AI sprints clear showing decent speed whereas FTF gets headed a stays and stays in a much slower time. It's actually an excellent example of when horses win the same race but the takeaway is completely different.

FTF could end up in Turners (and I've covered TWAR accordingly) but i'm fairly sure he'll follow the same path as Florida Pearl and hopefully do what Don Poli did and win the BANC.

Time will tell, hard to say much more without seeing him do his thing.

I’m not sure Florida Pearl has anything to do with where Fact To File will end up either. Missed That went straight from bumpers to novice chasing and he ended up in the Arkle.

What I’d most like to know from the stable tour comment is what Willie meant by ‘an armchair’?

[Quevega]

I’m not sure Florida Pearl has anything to do with where Fact To File will end up either. Missed That went straight from bumpers to novice chasing and he ended up in the Arkle.

What I’d most like to know from the stable tour comment is what Willie meant by ‘an armchair’?

The armchair comment to me suggests the horse is relaxed, which would sway more towards the 3 mile race as Willie prefers a more relaxed amenable horse for that. But his jumping will also influence. I'm a Turners man due to the high regard and lack of experience personally and the Gaelic influence - the debut bumper distance and Florida Pearl and Poliglote stuff are much less of a clue IMO.
It's going to depend on how he goes and how others go in their season leading up to it, for sure, and opposition ground jockeys etc nearer the time - like normal.
I feel another GDC coming He was a cert for the Banc
I've backed both races.

[Craigy14]

Interesting debate regarding Fact To File.

Run4Home seemed to suggest FTF and Gaelic Warrior are the standout novice chasers (if all goes to plan), so in usual WPM style you would expect them to be split. That said if FTF is JP’s best chaser they may run in the same race as Mark Walsh would pick up the ride on FTF. You have to imagine Paul T will be doing everything to get them split if they are the 2 best chasers but it may be completely outwith his control.

With the Turners now in play and with WPM’s ammo of staying chasers you could easily see FTF going there imo. He’s named about 6 staying chasers amongst all the tours so if one goes NHC you still have 5. As someone previously mentioned he did run 5 last year but don’t think many of them were seen as a top chance other than Sir G who had an interrupted prep so was always going to be a big ask for him.

[JackieMoon33]

The armchair comment to me suggests the horse is relaxed, which would sway more towards the 3 mile race as Willie prefers a more relaxed amenable horse for that. But his jumping will also influence. I'm a Turners man due to the high regard and lack of experience personally and the Gaelic influence - the debut bumper distance and Florida Pearl and Poliglote stuff are much less of a clue IMO.
It's going to depend on how he goes and how others go in their season leading up to it, for sure, and opposition ground jockeys etc nearer the time - like normal.
I feel another GDC coming He was a cert for the Banc
I've backed both races.

That was my view too as I associated it to 'armchair ride'. I've a feeling he'll be able to win over multiple trips which is why that flexibility could see him routed to the Turners. As you and others mentioned, if GW proves his worth over fences, they'll be the standout pair and likely split. Also, Willie calls anything that needs 2.5m and above a stayer as he did the same with the novice hurdlers too. Fortunately with the novice chasers, he name checked the BANC for some 'stayers' but not for F2F. I'm convincing myself a little but also debunking some of the BANC claims which are irrelevant too.

[charlie]

I’m not sure Florida Pearl has anything to do with where Fact To File will end up either. Missed That went straight from bumpers to novice chasing and he ended up in the Arkle.

What I’d most like to know from the stable tour comment is what Willie meant by ‘an armchair’?

That first sentence

I only mention FP because Willie and Patrick have referenced him quite a few times when speaking about FTF - them saying it, not me. FYI, FP went from the bumper to the BANC the following year, not the Arkle.

Whilst Im confident FTF will end up over 3m I am certainly not slamming the door shut on 2m5f, it's certainly a possibility (hence 80:20). You don't seem as open Jackie. Sounds like you've backed Turners so it must be Turners and thats that

Have you debunked BANC claims as irrelevant? Just facts aren't they? He's a 3m PTP winner and his sire produced multiple 3m festival winners inc Don Poli who won the BANC.

Re armchair ride I suspect what Q said is right. If he's as good as Willie thinks he is then I suspect he'll be effective over both trips and then its just a case of which one they think will suit him better.

We haven't seen him jump a fence in public yet so I think we can all be fairly open on this, especially given what happened with GDC and the whole will he or wont he re BANC.

[Kevloaf]

Interesting debate regarding Fact To File.

Run4Home seemed to suggest FTF and Gaelic Warrior are the standout novice chasers (if all goes to plan), so in usual WPM style you would expect them to be split. That said if FTF is JP’s best chaser they may run in the same race as Mark Walsh would pick up the ride on FTF. You have to imagine Paul T will be doing everything to get them split if they are the 2 best chasers but it may be completely outwith his control.

With the Turners now in play and with WPM’s ammo of staying chasers you could easily see FTF going there imo. He’s named about 6 staying chasers amongst all the tours so if one goes NHC you still have 5. As someone previously mentioned he did run 5 last year but don’t think many of them were seen as a top chance other than Sir G who had an interrupted prep so was always going to be a big ask for him.

I'm not sure Paul Townend will get the ride on Fact To File regardless

Unless Willie literally had nothing else, but he definitely will.

I don't think it's the same set up as with Suede/Munir horses where he can just move Daryl off (or is already number 1 for Willie's)


Wouldn't make a difference, but I'm very much assuming Mark Walsh rides regardless, and Willie to have 2 darts in each at least.

[jack1092]

We haven't seen him jump a fence in public yet so I think we can all be fairly open on this, especially given what happened with GDC and the whole will he or wont he re BANC.

Fence or even a hurdle...refreshing as it is to skip the hurdling with a horse you think is an out + out chaser aren't we jumping to conclusions a tad with FTF? He's ran very credible for a horse that's supposed to be a stayer in bumpers last year, but that's all they were...bumpers. How many times do we see the bumper horses not become the horses for the seasons after...Even after that, how good was the Champion bumper division last year? It's hard to say for me.

Even with WPM seemingly giddy about young but old mind FTF i'll wait and see on him myself....

[charlie]

Fence or even a hurdle...refreshing as it is to skip the hurdling with a horse you think is an out + out chaser aren't we jumping to conclusions a tad with FTF? He's ran very credible for a horse that's supposed to be a stayer in bumpers last year, but that's all they were...bumpers. How many times do we see the bumper horses not become the horses for the seasons after...Even after that, how good was the Champion bumper division last year? It's hard to say for me.

Even with WPM seemingly giddy about young but old mind FTF i'll wait and see on him myself....

Yeh we are assuming he'll take to them because WPM seems bullish.

FWIW he must have schooled savage but that doesn't always translate onto the racecourse.

[ComplyOrDie]

Fence or even a hurdle...refreshing as it is to skip the hurdling with a horse you think is an out + out chaser aren't we jumping to conclusions a tad with FTF? He's ran very credible for a horse that's supposed to be a stayer in bumpers last year, but that's all they were...bumpers. How many times do we see the bumper horses not become the horses for the seasons after...Even after that, how good was the Champion bumper division last year? It's hard to say for me.

Even with WPM seemingly giddy about young but old mind FTF i'll wait and see on him myself....

I think this is fair, and absolutely fair to enough to wait and see. I guess the only argument against this is that we've seen him over a fence in his p2p and he was very good, that said, it was against much inferior opposition to what he'll face over fences under rules.

[ComplyOrDie]

That first sentence

I only mention FP because Willie and Patrick have referenced him quite a few times when speaking about FTF - them saying it, not me. FYI, FP went from the bumper to the BANC the following year, not the Arkle.

I'm pretty sure Jackie was referring to 'Missed That' going from the bumper to the Arkle for Willie, rather than FP.