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Stats/trends are useful but I'd back Nicholls if he thinks this is Stay Away Fays best route to winning a BANC, he knows what the winner of the race looks like...
Indeed.
The horse won the AB so proven stayer.
Hes with a master trainer of chasers.
As long as he turns up fit and fresh in March, I don’t see how it matters whether he’s been running over 3m or not during the season.
Just got home and watched the racing back. Immediately thought NHC after watching SAF. IMO he'll be caught out by one or two quicker types in the BANC. Thought he ran very much like Gerri Colombe and I do believe he should have ran in the '4 miler'. Maybe a deep ground festival could see him winning the race but I'm not convinced. He's a horse for the Nationals in the future for sure.
If SAF can lead, jump cleanly, and try and make the rest chase him, he has a chance of nipping the BANC still. He's a unusual Nicholls horse isnt is, normally they're questionable stayers we're as this lad is a proper proper stayer
Thinking Nicholls has a real Gold Cup horse here for '24
Kempton, he has Knappers and potentially Hermes Allen to join him and could be better suited.
Liked Found a Fifty run. Quick fencing and showed a good turn of foot. Someone else mentioned Arkle and I wouldn't disagree with that. One to ponder and wait for his next entry/race
21 years since a winner who started over 3 miles. But how many over the years with decent chances started over 3m?
That was the ATR stats site last season. As Exar Essay says, The Real Whacker busted that stat last year.
Yeah but he went back own to 2 and a half miles
I did a write up about this 1-2 weeks back. I want to see my BANC horses running and winning over middle distance. I cant see SAF winning over shorter trip and therefore, I wont be increasing my initial stake on him - but as it stands, I'm happy to leave it where it is
Opatcho said he preferred horses who started out over 2m4f so I had a wee look and found that none of the previous winners in the last 20 years started out over 3m or further ... with one very important exception; last years winner.
Who stepped back in trip on his second run to win over 2 1/2m.
I’ve opened up this thread only to discover Bkaklion, Don Poli, O’Faolains Boy, Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth weren’t stayers. I’m going for a lie down.
I’ve opened up this thread only to discover Bkaklion, Don Poli, O’Faolains Boy, Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth weren’t stayers. I’m going for a lie down.
You forgot Denman, his stamina was suspect as hell.
Long bitcoin, long gold, long silver, long g/s opening day Cheltenham Festival
You lost me at “stayers don’t win the Banc”
Show your workings !
No worries:
2023: The Real Whacker had form over shorter, made all in the race and won. Gerri Colombe (Who interestingly hadn't even run at 3m previously), outpaced turning for home, tried to stay on but couldn't get there.
2022: L'Homme Presse was talked about going Turners prior to the Festival. When Galopin Des Champs went to Turners then L'HP went BANC. Form at shorter having led to win several times over 2 1/2m. Ahoy Senor, whose only chase run over less than 2m 7 1/2f saw him unseat, was left behind getting done for pace before running on again late.
2021: Monkfish twice won at 2m 5 1/2f, leading on the last occasion in a grade 1, before leading and racing prominently to win the BANC. Neither The Big Breakaway or Fiddlerontheroof could keep up with Monkfish with the pair both running in the Grand National at a later date.
2020: Yeah, this is an exception. Minella Indo and Allaho cut each others throats from a long way out to leave it for Champ to stay on best of all and pick them up. Even then, Champ had plenty of form at shorter over hurdles and fences.
2019: Topofthegame had finished 2nd to Defi Du Seuil on chase debut over 2m 3f (If ignore his one run over 2m 6f the previous season when fell) before 2nd to La Bague Au Roi in the Kauto Star having raced prominently. Arguably he outjumped Delta Work and Santini though you wouldn't argued that he outstayed the pair considering what they later achieved over much further.
2018: Presenting Percy. Arguably a horse who had it all. Won a 2m novice hurdle. Also won a 3m 5f handicap off a mark of 145 as a novice. Placed in a grade 2 over 2m 4f as a prep for Cheltenham. Don't think he was ever as good after that RSA run, and never did match his RPR that day. Monalee probably got done by the soft ground that day. He had plenty of form at shorter prior to Festival.
2017: Might Bite had previously made all to win over 2m 3f on good ground early in season. Pretty much made all in the RSA where he began to wander around after the last. Whisper attempted to make up the ground as he idled but couldn't get there.
2016: Blaklion had been 2nd in the Dipper over 2m 5f early in season. Had begun over 2m 4f on good ground at Chepstow though was only 4th. Raced prominently and had enough to beat Shaneshill, who is the opposite in that he never really stayed 3m and More Of That in 3rd who was held up and tried to stay on but couldn't get there.
When I refer to stayers then I am talking about horses who shape as though they want further and are often running on late in their races. They might not have any form at shorter as they would struggle to handle the pace of the race. Stay Away Fay did win a hurdle over 2m 4f but even then he was 3 lengths down jumping the last and stayed on strongly to win to beat a 127 rated hurdler. He has raced at 3m ever since. Everything about this horse says stamina to me including the breeding (Out of Shantou and an Oscar mare). Think it would have to be a very weak affair for SAF to win at graded level over 2 1/2m. But that isn't going to happen as he will likely remain at 3m for his whole campaign.
If you are someone who makes a book on the race then the 14/1 makes sense. Will probably start of at around 6/1 (Depending on how strong the Kauto Star is) and run well to finish 2nd or 3rd. However, there will likely be something quicker that will beat him. Hermes Allen would have a much more appealing profile as a BANC winner than what SAF does in my view.
2023: The Real Whacker had form over shorter, made all in the race and won. Gerri Colombe (Who interestingly hadn't even run at 3m previously), outpaced turning for home, tried to stay on but couldn't get there.
2022: L'Homme Presse was talked about going Turners prior to the Festival. When Galopin Des Champs went to Turners then L'HP went BANC. Form at shorter having led to win several times over 2 1/2m. Ahoy Senor, whose only chase run over less than 2m 7 1/2f saw him unseat, was left behind getting done for pace before running on again late.
2021: Monkfish twice won at 2m 5 1/2f, leading on the last occasion in a grade 1, before leading and racing prominently to win the BANC. Neither The Big Breakaway or Fiddlerontheroof could keep up with Monkfish with the pair both running in the Grand National at a later date.
2020: Yeah, this is an exception. Minella Indo and Allaho cut each others throats from a long way out to leave it for Champ to stay on best of all and pick them up. Even then, Champ had plenty of form at shorter over hurdles and fences.
2019: Topofthegame had finished 2nd to Defi Du Seuil on chase debut over 2m 3f (If ignore his one run over 2m 6f the previous season when fell) before 2nd to La Bague Au Roi in the Kauto Star having raced prominently. Arguably he outjumped Delta Work and Santini though you wouldn't argued that he outstayed the pair considering what they later achieved over much further.
2018: Presenting Percy. Arguably a horse who had it all. Won a 2m novice hurdle. Also won a 3m 5f handicap off a mark of 145 as a novice. Placed in a grade 2 over 2m 4f as a prep for Cheltenham. Don't think he was ever as good after that RSA run, and never did match his RPR that day. Monalee probably got done by the soft ground that day. He had plenty of form at shorter prior to Festival.
2017: Might Bite had previously made all to win over 2m 3f on good ground early in season. Pretty much made all in the RSA where he began to wander around after the last. Whisper attempted to make up the ground as he idled but couldn't get there.
2016: Blaklion had been 2nd in the Dipper over 2m 5f early in season. Had begun over 2m 4f on good ground at Chepstow though was only 4th. Raced prominently and had enough to beat Shaneshill, who is the opposite in that he never really stayed 3m and More Of That in 3rd who was held up and tried to stay on but couldn't get there.
When I refer to stayers then I am talking about horses who shape as though they want further and are often running on late in their races. They might not have any form at shorter as they would struggle to handle the pace of the race. Stay Away Fay did win a hurdle over 2m 4f but even then he was 3 lengths down jumping the last and stayed on strongly to win to beat a 127 rated hurdler. He has raced at 3m ever since. Everything about this horse says stamina to me including the breeding (Out of Shantou and an Oscar mare). Think it would have to be a very weak affair for SAF to win at graded level over 2 1/2m. But that isn't going to happen as he will likely remain at 3m for his whole campaign.
If you are someone who makes a book on the race then the 14/1 makes sense. Will probably start of at around 6/1 (Depending on how strong the Kauto Star is) and run well to finish 2nd or 3rd. However, there will likely be something quicker that will beat him. Hermes Allen would have a much more appealing profile as a BANC winner than what SAF does in my view.
Some fair points, your main point really is the horse needs to be able to show some sort of tactical speed, stamina alone won't cut it.
Long bitcoin, long gold, long silver, long g/s opening day Cheltenham Festival
I’ve opened up this thread only to discover Bkaklion, Don Poli, O’Faolains Boy, Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth weren’t stayers. I’m going for a lie down.
Every horse you have given had form prior to the RSA at shorter, whether that be over hurdles, fences or both. Only one of those mentioned also went on to place at further than the Gold Cup trip and so would not be classed as a stayer in my book (A stayer is a horse who stays marathon trips ie 3m 4f+).
Some fair points, your main point really is the horse needs to be able to show some sort of tactical speed, stamina alone won't cut it.
I think it is probably my definition of a 'stayer' that is causing the confusion. Like I have explained above, a stayer to me is a horse who needs 3 1/2m to be seen at his best which is what I see SAF as in the future. He has class and guts though so it will get him a long way. However, in the BANC then I expect a horse with more tactical speed to beat him and with his profile he is one I am happy not to have on my side come the race (Unless proven otherwise).
2023: The Real Whacker had form over shorter, made all in the race and won. Gerri Colombe (Who interestingly hadn't even run at 3m previously), outpaced turning for home, tried to stay on but couldn't get there.
2022: L'Homme Presse was talked about going Turners prior to the Festival. When Galopin Des Champs went to Turners then L'HP went BANC. Form at shorter having led to win several times over 2 1/2m. Ahoy Senor, whose only chase run over less than 2m 7 1/2f saw him unseat, was left behind getting done for pace before running on again late.
2021: Monkfish twice won at 2m 5 1/2f, leading on the last occasion in a grade 1, before leading and racing prominently to win the BANC. Neither The Big Breakaway or Fiddlerontheroof could keep up with Monkfish with the pair both running in the Grand National at a later date.
2020: Yeah, this is an exception. Minella Indo and Allaho cut each others throats from a long way out to leave it for Champ to stay on best of all and pick them up. Even then, Champ had plenty of form at shorter over hurdles and fences.
2019: Topofthegame had finished 2nd to Defi Du Seuil on chase debut over 2m 3f (If ignore his one run over 2m 6f the previous season when fell) before 2nd to La Bague Au Roi in the Kauto Star having raced prominently. Arguably he outjumped Delta Work and Santini though you wouldn't argued that he outstayed the pair considering what they later achieved over much further.
2018: Presenting Percy. Arguably a horse who had it all. Won a 2m novice hurdle. Also won a 3m 5f handicap off a mark of 145 as a novice. Placed in a grade 2 over 2m 4f as a prep for Cheltenham. Don't think he was ever as good after that RSA run, and never did match his RPR that day. Monalee probably got done by the soft ground that day. He had plenty of form at shorter prior to Festival.
2017: Might Bite had previously made all to win over 2m 3f on good ground early in season. Pretty much made all in the RSA where he began to wander around after the last. Whisper attempted to make up the ground as he idled but couldn't get there.
2016: Blaklion had been 2nd in the Dipper over 2m 5f early in season. Had begun over 2m 4f on good ground at Chepstow though was only 4th. Raced prominently and had enough to beat Shaneshill, who is the opposite in that he never really stayed 3m and More Of That in 3rd who was held up and tried to stay on but couldn't get there.
When I refer to stayers then I am talking about horses who shape as though they want further and are often running on late in their races. They might not have any form at shorter as they would struggle to handle the pace of the race. Stay Away Fay did win a hurdle over 2m 4f but even then he was 3 lengths down jumping the last and stayed on strongly to win to beat a 127 rated hurdler. He has raced at 3m ever since. Everything about this horse says stamina to me including the breeding (Out of Shantou and an Oscar mare). Think it would have to be a very weak affair for SAF to win at graded level over 2 1/2m. But that isn't going to happen as he will likely remain at 3m for his whole campaign.
If you are someone who makes a book on the race then the 14/1 makes sense. Will probably start of at around 6/1 (Depending on how strong the Kauto Star is) and run well to finish 2nd or 3rd. However, there will likely be something quicker that will beat him. Hermes Allen would have a much more appealing profile as a BANC winner than what SAF does in my view.
F+
You have to be able to stay to win the RSA.
You're mostly waffling. You get the plus for taking the time to write something.
I couldn't give a shit what other trips they've ran at previously or after, or what they start their chasing career over.
The only thing I'd acknowledge is that you get classier types win the race occasionally, that would be competitive at 2 miles in graded races and others (boat types) that probably wouldn't.
I'd actually not have Stay Away Fay as one of the classier types, and he may be vulnerable (depending on how a race is run) to something that is, I wouldn't argue that. And Nicholls describing him as "too classy" is a surprise to me, although I expect he means that he anticipates that he's a grade one worthy animal if things go to plan.
Having Champ as an exception also seems a little perverse, given his overall record.
The record for winners and placed horses going on to be competitive or well fancied in Gold Cups speaks for itself. You gotta be able to stay. Stayers win the RSA.
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