2024 Novice Chasers

[charlie]

Willie

Fact To File

He's a beautiful horse. He's an armchair. He's got the temperament, he's got everything. I think he'll be at the top end of the staying novice chasers. We had a choice with him last season whether to go novice hurdling or stay in bumpers. We elected to stay in bumpers, but we said if we did that, we'd go straight over fences with him this season as he looks a real chaser. I think he’ll be right up with the best of my staying novice chasers.

Gaelic Warrior

He’s going to go novice chasing. I'd like to think he'll be one of our best novice chasers this season and turn into a Brown Advisory type. If it doesn’t go right for him, he can always go back over hurdles and we can aim for the Stayers’ Hurdle, but we’ll set out to make him a staying novice chaser.

[Kevloaf]

I disagree about the Ballymore, whilst it technically is over 2m5f, it is generally won by horses with a turn of foot and they end up as Champion Hurdle horses. Not sure many Ballymore winners have ended up in the BANC the season after? Yorkhill won a Turners, but ended up in the Champion Hurdle the following season, Bob Olinger was majorly fortunate to have won both. Anyway, it's all irrelevant regarding Fact To File, he is skipping novice hurdles, but just as a side note, he was favourite for the Bartlett before it was made public knowledge that he was going chasing. Again, probably little relevance but the Bartlett would lend itself to going to the BANC the season after, generally, if going novice chasing.

Galopin Des Champs is a completely different proposition to Fact To File. Won a French Hurdles race over 2m2f, and showed plenty of pace, Fact To File won a p2p and won a bumper over 2m4f going away at the finish.

I'm personally ruling out the Turners for Fact To File, and I'll probably come back to this, head in hands, the moment he is declared for the race But his p2p, his bumper debut over 2m4f going away at the finish, added to his breeding, and Willie's recent quotes, has all led me down the path of believing he is a BANC horse.

It's not me you're disagreeing with mate

Willie Mullins literally says staying hurdlers and mentions Ballymore and Albert Bartlett for them.


I can see him putting Fact To File in the Turners, but he's an exception to any rules as he hardly ever does it

If I had to guess, I'd say BANC as well for Fact To File, but definitely would want both covered at this stage


Younger, so less likely to go further sooner would be the main sticking point.

Not name dropping the BANC as well, but that's getting in to the realms of reading way too much into stable tours, which I've already over done today

[charlie]

Willie

Facile Vega

He's going novice chasing. He probably didn’t do everything I thought he would do last season over hurdles. Some things just didn’t go right for him during the season for one reason or another. He has come back from his summer break in great order, though, and looks in particularly good shape. We’ll get him started over fences within the next month or so and the way he gallops and jumps I think he’s probably one for the minimum trip; he's an Arkle type of horse. There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree if he needed to go up in trip, but at the moment I’m thinking two miles for him.

Mister Policeman

He does fantastic work at home. I know he won his race at Cork for us but, based on his homework, I thought he would win a lot easier than he did. He has huge ability and he’ll go novice chasing this season. He can always go back hurdling if it doesn’t work out, but chasing is the plan. I think he’ll improve a lot from what you saw from him at Cork.

Hunters Yarn

He's an out-and-out two-miler. He's pacy and put up some nice performances last season. We'll probably go novice chasing with him.

[Exar Essay]

GW and F2F the 2 to concentrate on for me from all the 'staying' ones, GW is the 3m horse they always thought he needed further than the 2 4 even pre festival last year, I'd imagine F2F at middle distances.

Long season though and no doubt injuries and flops along the way...

Thanks R4H. Very helpful as ever. Is middle distances an educated guess on your part or has something been said?

[JackieMoon33]

Willie looking to have 6 BANC runners at this rate

Those mentioned for the race or described as a stayer.

Gaelic Warrior
Fact To File
Grangeclare West
Spanish Harlem
Nick Rockett
Minella Cocooner

I see Minella Cocooner as the NH Chase horse which I've said before, but even so, take your pick from the other 5. You can also potentially add Indiana Dream into the list too.

The big thing that stands out for me is that he's skipping novice hurdling with Fact To File despite the amount of ammunition he already has for the staying novice Chase division.

I'm so happy reading all those stayers and name checks for the BANC as it means Fact To File has more chance of slotting in nicely (where I want him) into the Turners.

[Run4Home]

Thanks R4H. Very helpful as ever. Is middle distances an educated guess on your part or has something been said?

Bit of both but GW they do think is the 3m horse for a long long time and those 2 as the main hopes so if everything goes well as we all know they very likely won't clash if it plays out those 2 as the best and you have 1 horse that's been made clear they think needs 3 and they other clearly has some boot to compete in bumpers as he did.


Long road to Chelt though....

[charlie]

I'm so happy reading all those stayers and name checks for the BANC as it means Fact To File has more chance of slotting in nicely (where I want him) into the Turners.

Everything about FTF screams 3m IMO. What they've said, his breeding, the market, starting over 2m5f on the level, all the way through to likening him to Florida Pearl who went bumpers to RSA. I'm not saying Turners wont happen but id put it at 80:20 he's Willies BANC horse. He just called him an armchair

[Exar Essay]

Bit of both but GW they do think is the 3m horse for a long long time and those 2 as the main hopes so if everything goes well as we all know they very likely won't clash if it plays out those 2 as the best and you have 1 horse that's been made clear they think needs 3 and they other clearly has some boot to compete in bumpers as he did.


Long road to Chelt though....

Absolutely. Appreciate the explanation. Very useful stuff.

[JackieMoon33]

I disagree about the Ballymore, whilst it technically is over 2m5f, it is generally won by horses with a turn of foot and they end up as Champion Hurdle horses. Not sure many Ballymore winners have ended up in the BANC the season after? Yorkhill won a Turners, but ended up in the Champion Hurdle the following season, Bob Olinger was majorly fortunate to have won both. Anyway, it's all irrelevant regarding Fact To File, he is skipping novice hurdles, but just as a side note, he was favourite for the Bartlett before it was made public knowledge that he was going chasing. Again, probably little relevance but the Bartlett would lend itself to going to the BANC the season after, generally, if going novice chasing.

Galopin Des Champs is a completely different proposition to Fact To File. Won a French Hurdles race over 2m2f, and showed plenty of pace, Fact To File won a p2p and won a bumper over 2m4f going away at the finish.

I'm personally ruling out the Turners for Fact To File, and I'll probably come back to this, head in hands, the moment he is declared for the race But his p2p, his bumper debut over 2m4f going away at the finish, added to his breeding, and Willie's recent quotes, has all led me down the path of believing he is a BANC horse.

If Galopin Des Champs had not been laid out for the Pipe race, which novice hurdle would he have been most competitive in? Albert Bartlett.
He was always a stayer but has that bit of class too. When he went over fences, his class and jumping allowed him to win over shorter as a novice and then his stamina to win a GC.

Personally, the Supreme and Ballymore are interchangeable over hurdles and the Turners and BANC are interchangeable over fences. You don't need a turn of foot to win the Turners like you would the Ballymore.

[JackieMoon33]

Everything about FTF screams 3m IMO. What they've said, his breeding, the market, starting over 2m5f on the level, all the way through to likening him to Florida Pearl who went bumpers to RSA. I'm not saying Turners wont happen but id put it at 80:20 he's Willies BANC horse. He just called him an armchair

Elaborate on the pedigree?
Appreciate It won the same bumper as Fact To File over 2m4f. He won the Supreme and only ever tried 3m once.
This is Willie we're talking about too. He's mentioned a bunch of novice hurdles as 'stayers' and then name dropped both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett.

[DenmanSacre]

Regarding FTF running in the 2m4 bumper, Appreciate It also ran in the same bumper, won a Supreme and went to the Turners. I don't think distance in bumpers matters too much to him. FTF has been plenty backed at the DRF and Cheltenham to show connections think he's got enough boot.

I don't think anyone can be confident in where he will end up, even Willie until they've all done their last bit of work.

A lot of running and jumping to be done before then and his target could be influenced on how well Gaelic fences, if there's any injuries, how the speedier novices do and whether they step up and how the graded races pan out pre Festival.

I'd make the Turners slight favourite at the moment but Mullins bingo couldn't care less what I think.

[jack1092]

Nick Rockett is my guess as Patrick's NHC ride..Don't think he'll be quite top of the pile in the year + they'll persuade the owners to go the NHC route....

[ComplyOrDie]

Elaborate on the pedigree?

I'm not charlie, but for me I was making direct comparisons to what Willie has done with Poliglotes previously and the two highest rated, Don Poli & Roi Des Francs both went to the RSA. Don Poli obviously won it but Roi Des Francs was disappointing.

Trainers do tend to be creatures of habit and know all about the pedigrees, that said Poliglote has produced plenty of decent enough 2 milers.

[ComplyOrDie]

Nick Rockett is my guess as Patrick's NHC ride..Don't think he'll be quite top of the pile in the year + they'll persuade the owners to go the NHC route....

Minella Cocooner for me, but wouldn't surprise me if you are correct and Nick Rockett makes up into a NHC type as well

[ComplyOrDie]

It's not me you're disagreeing with mate

I'm trying to convince myself, alright

How I see the races, I have the Arkle/Turners in one group and the BANC/NHC (staying chases) in the other.