2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[FinalFurlong91]

El fabiolo should be even money fav really

His form is miles better

And that run from jonbon last time was awful

[Carnage at Taunton]

Aye, it's a lovely position to be in for you. I'm very much on the financial biased side of Jonbon to be honest. But I'm fucked if I'm losing confidence now

For the record I'd also have Townend a better all round jockey than Jacob. I just don't like the idea of switching jockeys following a career best performance. And the boys from the Mullins camp were saying he was a tough ride the other day at one of the previews I'm sure...

DJ is imo as good as PT, no way would I ever place a bet on the strength of one being that much better than the other, both perfectly capable and amongst the best around.

[Kevloaf]

In other words, you know as much as the rest of us!!

Less in most cases I'm sure

[Carnage at Taunton]

Less in most cases I'm sure

Hahaha, bless you
Dont know about you , but this race kind of sums up what the festival means to me.
Big hopes for the future from both sides of the sea, bit of rivalry and all that, and unknown potential to boot….. just bloody love it!!!

[Kevloaf]

Hahaha, bless you
Dont know about you , but this race kind of sums up what the festival means to me.
Big hopes for the future from both sides of the sea, bit of rivalry and all that, and unknown potential to boot….. just bloody love it!!!

Haha, yeah I get that.

To be honest, myself..... when I got in to NH racing, Nicholls was the big dog, with the big 4, but he had Ruby .... so I didn't know there was a UK vs Irish thing really (friendly as it is of course).... then Frankel, but Aidan O'Brien was clearly incredible, so I loved both (although I still love Frankel more than anything, still my phone back ground instead of my wife) ..... and since then Willie is dominating but I don't care if a horse beats them being from the UK...I'd love Nicholls to dominate again but only because he was the big dog, not because he's from the UK.

I'm 35 now, so many it was more of a thing beforehand? Or maybe I'm an exception.

On a more general note, I do find it fascinating, 'when' you get in to a sport makes a difference and then you can get very defensive about it... for me when Douvan / Vautour / Faugheen were running, that was a golden era..... and I just about caught Kauto and Denman so I'm incredibly spoilt...but you don't have to go back that far and Istabraq was running...and I'm ignorant to just how special that would have been.... but I massively respect the people on here that were about then and can see the bigger picture... it's something we all should probably recognise. On the flip side, the ones who do rememebr the horses freom yesteryear, sometimes need to appreciate that things chance and things progress! Nothing specific in particular, just general musing

I remember when I'd been on here a while and some people thought Thistlecrack was the best stayer ever....and I hated it, despite knowing Thistlecrack was fantastic... but then it made me realise I'd have been like that about Big Bucks, and I'm sure people from even 5 years before would think the same about me when they have a plethora of wonderful stayers to choose from.



Gone off on a tangent there but "just bloody love it".... me too

[Many Clouds]

How much have you got on the Prestbury Cup staying at home this year Carnage at Taunton, I can’t recall you fancying much from across the pond. A loyal home fan!

Am I being ridiculous in thinking GB have a small squeak in the Prestbury Cup? Just got a feeling about it that it could be a lot closer than it has been the last few years.

[SeanRock]

Am I being ridiculous in thinking GB have a small squeak in the Prestbury Cup? Just got a feeling about it that it could be a lot closer than it has been the last few years.

That would be a firm yes from me but then again I’m biased. The Irish have a firm grip on most of the graded races & will win the Martin Pipe with one of Gordon’s ten strong hand in the race along with a good few more handicaps predominantly hurdles.

Can see the UK mopping up more handicap chases for sure along with a few grade 1s obviously

[Mighty]

Haha, yeah I get that.

To be honest, myself..... when I got in to NH racing, Nicholls was the big dog, with the big 4, but he had Ruby .... so I didn't know there was a UK vs Irish thing really (friendly as it is of course).... then Frankel, but Aidan O'Brien was clearly incredible, so I loved both (although I still love Frankel more than anything, still my phone back ground instead of my wife) ..... and since then Willie is dominating but I don't care if a horse beats them being from the UK...I'd love Nicholls to dominate again but only because he was the big dog, not because he's from the UK.

I'm 35 now, so many it was more of a thing beforehand? Or maybe I'm an exception.

On a more general note, I do find it fascinating, 'when' you get in to a sport makes a difference and then you can get very defensive about it... for me when Douvan / Vautour / Faugheen were running, that was a golden era..... and I just about caught Kauto and Denman so I'm incredibly spoilt...but you don't have to go back that far and Istabraq was running...and I'm ignorant to just how special that would have been.... but I massively respect the people on here that were about then and can see the bigger picture... it's something we all should probably recognise. On the flip side, the ones who do rememebr the horses freom yesteryear, sometimes need to appreciate that things chance and things progress! Nothing specific in particular, just general musing

I remember when I'd been on here a while and some people thought Thistlecrack was the best stayer ever....and I hated it, despite knowing Thistlecrack was fantastic... but then it made me realise I'd have been like that about Big Bucks, and I'm sure people from even 5 years before would think the same about me when they have a plethora of wonderful stayers to choose from.



Gone off on a tangent there but "just bloody love it".... me too

Really enjoyed this post Kev. I’m a very late joiner to loving racing - only really caught the bug about three years ago, some mates finally persuading me to take it seriously. We’re about the same age, but I regret in a way that I missed the era you’re talking about, especially when it’s described by my mates with such awe.

I go back and watch it on YouTube as I have got into the history of the sport too, but somehow, you have to have lived through it for it to be special and mean something to you. It’s like you can’t go back in life, only look forward. Anyway, enough serious stuff - literally cannot wait for the festival this year - magical.

[Mighty]

Am I being ridiculous in thinking GB have a small squeak in the Prestbury Cup? Just got a feeling about it that it could be a lot closer than it has been the last few years.

I think Britain’s got a more of a chance in the handicaps perhaps (though you look at the handicap hurdles and Ireland seem to dominate the betting).

Saw this on Twitter yesterday - made for grim reading: https://twitter.com/jamesaknight/sta...Ap9QKCXBG0j_tA

“For a health check on the UK cheltenham Festival challenge - Supreme, NH Chase, Bumper, Triumph, Albert Bartlett and Mares Chase - I reckon it is odds-on that Ireland wins all six races. (*Not individually odds-on - the six timer is odds-on). Name the horse that could stop it!?”

[Kevloaf]

Really enjoyed this post Kev. I’m a very late joiner to loving racing - only really caught the bug about three years ago, some mates finally persuading me to take it seriously. We’re about the same age, but I regret in a way that I missed the era you’re talking about, especially when it’s described by my mates with such awe.

I go back and watch it on YouTube as I have got into the history of the sport too, but somehow, you have to have lived through it for it to be special and mean something to you. It’s like you can’t go back in life, only look forward. Anyway, enough serious stuff - literally cannot wait for the festival this year - magical.

Ah thanks, I think it's important to reference every now and again. Even now, I'm a bit surprised myself it was only 2016 when I joined this forum. My first posts are when getting in to horse racing are on not606 forum and it's pretty funny to look back on, then I lurked here before joining for a while. People like Istabraq and Faugheen_Machine were on here, and of course Old Vic and I was in awe. It's the knowledge from beforehand combined with the excitement about something new that I'll never, ever forget. FM was excited for Samcro...despite being called FM and I recall him saying he's never been more excited for a novice hurdler before his Ballymore ... and I questioned the PTP form (in a much more respectful way than I do now as I was less of a twat) and it's those kind of 'vibes' you can only get from experience.

I myself, despite knowing the above, get a little bit of the '' when I know someone is new to the game... almost like I can't be arsed to explain to them about why what they've missed would be relevant... but not getting into my thoughts on Gen Z as a millennial

I need to work on that myself though....I can't help feeling spolit though, as Frankel was the GOAT and despite being a massive NH fan, knowing yo uwatched the greatest of the species and how rare that is... makes it hard to get giddy over even something lile Constitution Hill. For me, he has to go some way to proving he's better than Kauto Star....



Such a tangent.... at least it's stopping me betting on random 'related multiples'

[Carnage at Taunton]

Haha, yeah I get that.

To be honest, myself..... when I got in to NH racing, Nicholls was the big dog, with the big 4, but he had Ruby .... so I didn't know there was a UK vs Irish thing really (friendly as it is of course).... then Frankel, but Aidan O'Brien was clearly incredible, so I loved both (although I still love Frankel more than anything, still my phone back ground instead of my wife) ..... and since then Willie is dominating but I don't care if a horse beats them being from the UK...I'd love Nicholls to dominate again but only because he was the big dog, not because he's from the UK.

I'm 35 now, so many it was more of a thing beforehand? Or maybe I'm an exception.

On a more general note, I do find it fascinating, 'when' you get in to a sport makes a difference and then you can get very defensive about it... for me when Douvan / Vautour / Faugheen were running, that was a golden era..... and I just about caught Kauto and Denman so I'm incredibly spoilt...but you don't have to go back that far and Istabraq was running...and I'm ignorant to just how special that would have been.... but I massively respect the people on here that were about then and can see the bigger picture... it's something we all should probably recognise. On the flip side, the ones who do rememebr the horses freom yesteryear, sometimes need to appreciate that things chance and things progress! Nothing specific in particular, just general musing

I remember when I'd been on here a while and some people thought Thistlecrack was the best stayer ever....and I hated it, despite knowing Thistlecrack was fantastic... but then it made me realise I'd have been like that about Big Bucks, and I'm sure people from even 5 years before would think the same about me when they have a plethora of wonderful stayers to choose from.



Gone off on a tangent there but "just bloody love it".... me too

Have to say I’m rather proud if I’ve provoked what is probably the post that I have most enjoyed reading since I got involved on FJ!!

[Many Clouds]

I think Britain’s got a more of a chance in the handicaps perhaps (though you look at the handicap hurdles and Ireland seem to dominate the betting).

Saw this on Twitter yesterday - made for grim reading: https://twitter.com/jamesaknight/sta...Ap9QKCXBG0j_tA

“For a health check on the UK cheltenham Festival challenge - Supreme, NH Chase, Bumper, Triumph, Albert Bartlett and Mares Chase - I reckon it is odds-on that Ireland wins all six races. (*Not individually odds-on - the six timer is odds-on). Name the horse that could stop it!?”

I was gonna say Jeremy's Flame but then double checked and realised he's one of Cromwells haha

Yeh you're right and probably talked me out of putting more on the BFSB special of 14 or more GB winners at 16/1. So basically getting draw or GB win at 16s when GB to win it is like 10/1 most places.

When I looked through the races I think I was counting up potential GB winners and counting on them all winning, which is very unlikely. And the odds suckered me in.

I'd probably put the chances as below.

Almost impossible:
Triumph
Bartlett
Mares chase

Pretty unlikely:
Supreme
NHC
Bumper
Turners
Stayers - if Marie's Rock goes mares

Half decent chances:
Hunter chase

Very fair chance:
Jonbon
Constitution Hill
Marie's Rock
Hermes Allen
Brown's - Thyme Hill/Real Whacker Hunter chase
Edwardstone/Editeur Du Gute
Shishkin
Luccia
Bravemansgame

Last year 5 of the 9 handicaps were won by GB.

So say GB won 5 handicaps again, need another 9 winners. Not impossible but need a stupid amount to go right after, unless there's a freak year in handicaps and end up with 7 or 8.

So in short yeh thinking about it again it is very unlikely but that's why the odds are so high. More of a fun bet really and my monies already down so hopefully at least in with a slither of a chance come the.friday.

[Kevloaf]

I can see UK getting 9 or 10 so it stopped me getting involved in the handicaps ... as they've priced it around that.... no edge IMHO

I would say though Many Clouds that if Constitution Hill only classes as a "very fair chance" in the same way Bravemansgame does, we'll have an awful week!

CH counts as a +1 for the UK.... Bravemansgame is a maybe at best!

[That Horse]

.. makes it hard to get giddy over even something lile Constitution Hill.

I gotta find out how it feels, I wanna know if love is wild, I wanna know if love is real

[Many Clouds]

I can see UK getting 9 or 10 so it stopped me getting involved in te handicaps ... as they've priced it around that.... no edge IMHO

I would say though Many Clouds that if Constitution Hill only classes as a "very fair chance" in the same way Bravemansgame does, we'll have an awful week!

CH counts as a +1 for the UK.... Bravemansgame is a maybe at best!

Haha yeh probably didnt word that great, or have enough categories. In my head for the very fair chance I was thinking of horses where they are likely to win or it wouldn't be a suprise at all of they did, if you know what I mean.