2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[Carnage at Taunton]

I can see UK getting 9 or 10 so it stopped me getting involved in te handicaps ... as they've priced it around that.... no edge IMHO

I would say though Many Clouds that if Constitution Hill only classes as a "very fair chance" in the same way Bravemansgame does, we'll have an awful week!

CH counts as a +1 for the UK.... Bravemansgame is a maybe at best!

BMG or GDC , I think two different types of a stayer and will have us certainly differing on our opinions, but I’m pretty certain they will both figure in the finish.

[Rooster Booster]

I think Britain’s got a more of a chance in the handicaps perhaps (though you look at the handicap hurdles and Ireland seem to dominate the betting).

Saw this on Twitter yesterday - made for grim reading: https://twitter.com/jamesaknight/sta...Ap9QKCXBG0j_tA

“For a health check on the UK cheltenham Festival challenge - Supreme, NH Chase, Bumper, Triumph, Albert Bartlett and Mares Chase - I reckon it is odds-on that Ireland wins all six races. (*Not individually odds-on - the six timer is odds-on). Name the horse that could stop it!?”

The mighty Coffey…new front running sensation…like a dodgy greyhound on the bunny oi oi

[Kevloaf]

I gotta find out how it feels, I wanna know if love is wild, I wanna know if love is real

Fixed the quote....don't remember when or what it's from though?

[That Horse]

Fixed the quote....don't remember when or what it's from though?

Born to run by Bruce Springsteen

[Kevloaf]

Born to run by Bruce Springsteen

Haha I know mthe song, I love the Boss...

I thought I'd said it though?!

[That Horse]

Haha I know mthe song, I love the Boss...

I thought I'd said it though?!

You were taking about wanting Constitution Hill to be the next superstar because it gets the blood pumping about horseracing, etc.

Just reminded me of that lyric, that's all.

I have a somewhat unhealthy need to link everything back to a movie or song I like

Going to see the man himself and the E Street Band in Dublin in May

[Kevloaf]

You were taking about wanting Constitution Hill to be the next superstar because it gets the blood pumping about horseracing, etc.

Just reminded me of that lyric, that's all.

I have a somewhat unhealthy need to link everything back to a movie or song I like

Going to see the man himself and the E Street Band in Dublin in May

Hahaaaa aaah. I apologise, I read too much on here so stop remembering who said what and I try to treat each post in merit..... whereas as a big Bruce and Pulp Fiction fan, you deserve to elivated haha!

The Boss is the amazing. Top 5 humans on the planet.

Dancing in the Dark top 10 songs ever made

[Magpie]

Going to see the Boss in May in Old Reekie, first time, can’t wait. Speaks to the soul.

[charlie]

Jonbon is a bit shite isn't he.

He got absolutely destroyed in the Supreme last year..... you can say he was 2nd all you like.... beaten 22L might as well be 22nd. That is being THRASED. He managed to finish 2L ahead of Kilcruit in that Supreme. Kilcruit! Kilcruit isn't even sighted in the Novice Chases this year and won't be winning a handicap either..... awful Supreme.

Constitution Hill thrashing him doesn't take away from him obviously, but he's being massively, massively over rated.

Jonbon over fences has beaten Monmiral, who got beat then by The Real Whacker and then 27L by Gerri Colombe. Is that good?

He's beaten Boothill - who since then has lost to Tommy's Oscar and Solo, and beaten a handicap hurdler Aucinrisque - is that good?

He's then beaten another handicapper easily enough in Calcio - is that good?


In what world is this horse favourite for an Arkle?! When he's up against a that Irish Arkle winner?

Maybe it's because his best piece of form is at Aintree, beating El Fabiolo .... now ignoring how 'unlucky' EF was..... based on chase form this year.... El Fabiolo just has to be clear doesn't he? I feel like Dysart Dyanamo, Banbridge and Appreicate It could have easily done the same as Jonbon so far.

Match bet.... .El Fabiolo beats Jonbon easily, doesn't he?

Preach. It.

Kev, this is superb work. Spot on, IMO of course.

[charlie]

I would imagine so, yeah mate.

Hopefully will set slightly slower fractions than at the DRF, and leave something in reserve. The 1f shorter trip will almost certainly suit as will the extra fences, just need the fractions right.

Yeh this will be key.

[Benjy23]

I tell you who the extra fences won't suit, El Fabiolo

[Carnage at Taunton]

I tell you who the extra fences won't suit, El Fabiolo

Yep, looking at how they jump, I would certainly say Jonbon would appreciate extra fences.

Reading this thread, I have to admit I cannot see how anyone could be so bullish on the outcome of this race.
For me it’s a really close call, and can see either winning.
The race over hurdles to me ain’t significant, just proved that they were two of the best 2m novice hurdlers last season with not much at all between them,behind the obvious best one.
They have won their respective chases well enough, and pretty much both jumped well.
I do think Jonbon is the better jumper, but whether he’s the better horse at 2m chasing remains to be seen.
EF has the form on his side, and deserves to be fav on the strength of that. But of course Jonbon weren’t in that race, so no way of knowing what would have happened had he been.

All about a week Tuesday now when the talk stops, and the horses show us.

[Garrison Savannah]

All about the hill for me. Who best gets up it.

I suspect, but obviously don’t know and can’t be certain, that if EF and J jump the last together, it’ll be El Fab that prevails.

However, I also suspect, Jonbon’s jumping will get El Fab off the bridle a lot earlier than Jonbon will be. Maybe Jonbon won’t have anyone near him for anyone to worry about how strongly he runs through the line…

[Stormez]

You were taking about wanting Constitution Hill to be the next superstar because it gets the blood pumping about horseracing, etc.

Just reminded me of that lyric, that's all.

I have a somewhat unhealthy need to link everything back to a movie or song I like

Going to see the man himself and the E Street Band in Dublin in May

Going to see again at him at villa park in June, can’t wait! The GOAT

[opatcho]

Imagine if El Fabiolo could jump cleanly, he'd be one exciting horse to follow and may be talked up as being the 'next Douvan' (or close to it!)

Then again, lets not forget... that was El Fab's ran second chase start in that Irish Arkle in a race where DD went hard in front. Despite the mistakes, El Fab travelled well into it, and pulled well clear. He was also fairly keen during the first few furlongs. This horse is clearly talented, he has the pace to go a championship level, whilst stays on every well

I've re-watched the DRF performance this morning, trying to pick out how many 'bad' jumps he made

1st - fine
2nd - fiddly
3rd - fine
4th - looked like he got tight
The field well strung out at this stage
5th - good jump
6th - fine
7th - stretched? didnt look that natural to me
8th - very back mistake, guessed at it? worse one
9th - looked ok
10th - good
11th - very good

You'd expect El Fab to have learnt from that, so hopefully we'll see some improvement. However, I do accept that Cheltenham around that sharp/tighter course could negate those improvements. I envisage El Fab will likely make one bad mistake, and will jump 2-3 below par... very similar to his DRF run. Question is, will that stop him from winning given how much he beat those around in LTO, and those are decent grade 1 horses

I understand why folks are backing DD, tighter track... shorter, El Fab could make a bad mistake close to home, and may then struggle to reel in DD. However, El Fab make mistakes in fairly key parts of that race and still looked like the winner from 2-3 out.

That leaves Jonbon. I just struggle to see Jonbon progress into a 170 horse.
Very similar to this time last year, where Jonbon had failed to get into the 150's ahead of the supreme. Jonbon will improve from his Warwick run, but I just cant see him running past 165. El Fab could be a 170 if he cleaned up his jumping a little, I dont think he'll ever be a amazing jumper but... going into his 3rd chase run... surely there is scope to improve his jumping

Its funny isnt it, that Jonbon has been tight in with this notion that he's the better jumper. Lets look at Warwick when he was put under pressure by a handicapper

1st - good
2nd - good
questionable how quickly they are going at this point, Jonbon led
3rd - good
4th - good
5th - good, but looked to be jumping right
6th - brushed through, moved to the right
Calicomoved up after that fence, started to put pressure on Jonbon
7th - average, didnt look the quickest
8th - fine, again, looked like he shifted right
9th - good
10th - good
Cailco mistake at that one, Jonbon comes to take the lead
11th - good
12th - good

I'm sure others will have a different view to the above. But when under pressure, we saw some flaws with Jonbon there.

Anyway. Spent way too long on this post now. El Fab has scope to improve on his 167 RPR, I'd expect Jonbon to improve from his Warwick run but struggle to see him topping his previous best RPR of 164 (Henry VIII). Whether its RPR or just form line or visual - its El Fab for me