2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[Carnage at Taunton]

All about the hill for me. Who best gets up it.

I suspect, but obviously don’t know and can’t be certain, that if EF and J jump the last together, it’ll be El Fab that prevails.

However, I also suspect, Jonbon’s jumping will get El Fab off the bridle a lot earlier than Jonbon will be. Maybe Jonbon won’t have anyone near him for anyone to worry about how strongly he runs through the line…

I’ve read others mention about Jonbon getting home.
I presume that stems from the Supreme when Kilcruit was closing ?
I just put that down to one trying to win the race and the other running for a place.
Ive also heard Hendo saying he would stay further, and I would not be surprised if he does indeed go further next season.
That may well depend on what CH does I guess.

[Quevega]

Wowsers !
Woke up to four pages of this.
Found one gem though.

"Lough Derg Spirit"

[Irish Rugby]

I thought El Fabiolo's mistake in Leopardstown at the DRF, where for a few seconds it looked he was cooked, would have finished off many other horses there and then. His response was quite exceptional, for a novice chaser. Yes, Jonbon from what we've seen so far seems the better jumper. It is hard to call and the market is probably about right.El Fab's toughness for me, but it is marginal.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Imagine if El Fabiolo could jump cleanly, he'd be one exciting horse to follow and may be talked up as being the 'next Douvan' (or close to it!)

Then again, lets not forget... that was El Fab's ran second chase start in that Irish Arkle in a race where DD went hard in front. Despite the mistakes, El Fab travelled well into it, and pulled well clear. He was also fairly keen during the first few furlongs. This horse is clearly talented, he has the pace to go a championship level, whilst stays on every well

I've re-watched the DRF performance this morning, trying to pick out how many 'bad' jumps he made

1st - fine
2nd - fiddly
3rd - fine
4th - looked like he got tight
The field well strung out at this stage
5th - good jump
6th - fine
7th - stretched? didnt look that natural to me
8th - very back mistake, guessed at it? worse one
9th - looked ok
10th - good
11th - very good

You'd expect El Fab to have learnt from that, so hopefully we'll see some improvement. However, I do accept that Cheltenham around that sharp/tighter course could negate those improvements. I envisage El Fab will likely make one bad mistake, and will jump 2-3 below par... very similar to his DRF run. Question is, will that stop him from winning given how much he beat those around in LTO, and those are decent grade 1 horses

I understand why folks are backing DD, tighter track... shorter, El Fab could make a bad mistake close to home, and may then struggle to reel in DD. However, El Fab make mistakes in fairly key parts of that race and still looked like the winner from 2-3 out.

That leaves Jonbon. I just struggle to see Jonbon progress into a 170 horse.
Very similar to this time last year, where Jonbon had failed to get into the 150's ahead of the supreme. Jonbon will improve from his Warwick run, but I just cant see him running past 165. El Fab could be a 170 if he cleaned up his jumping a little, I dont think he'll ever be a amazing jumper but... going into his 3rd chase run... surely there is scope to improve his jumping

Its funny isnt it, that Jonbon has been tight in with this notion that he's the better jumper. Lets look at Warwick when he was put under pressure by a handicapper

1st - good
2nd - good
questionable how quickly they are going at this point, Jonbon led
3rd - good
4th - good
5th - good, but looked to be jumping right
6th - brushed through, moved to the right
Calicomoved up after that fence, started to put pressure on Jonbon
7th - average, didnt look the quickest
8th - fine, again, looked like he shifted right
9th - good
10th - good
Cailco mistake at that one, Jonbon comes to take the lead
11th - good
12th - good

I'm sure others will have a different view to the above. But when under pressure, we saw some flaws with Jonbon there.

Anyway. Spent way too long on this post now. El Fab has scope to improve on his 167 RPR, I'd expect Jonbon to improve from his Warwick run but struggle to see him topping his previous best RPR of 164 (Henry VIII). Whether its RPR or just form line or visual - its El Fab for me

Interesting stuff, good read.

If EF makes one bad mistake and jumps a couple below par he will be some horse to win an Arkle, maybe he is.

With regards to the ratings, not really taking too much notice of that to be honest as EF has gone deeper than Jonbon.
Not bothered about Jonbon at Warwick either.
He was taken by surprise, and actually given that he was coasting along and then had to react,I liked what I saw from him. I think that experience would have helped his chances in the Arkle, compared to a coast round.

[Exar Essay]

Interesting stuff, good read.

If EF makes one bad mistake and jumps a couple below par he will be some horse to win an Arkle, maybe he is.

With regards to the ratings, not really taking too much notice of that to be honest as EF has gone deeper than Jonbon.
Not bothered about Jonbon at Warwick either.
He was taken by surprise, and actually given that he was coasting along and then had to react,I liked what I saw from him. I think that experience would have helped his chances in the Arkle, compared to a coast round.

Even Hendo didn’t like what he saw that day.

“It wasn’t pretty to watch and pretty awful from where I was watching as it frightened the living daylights out of me but eventually, he’s quickened up and won nicely which he was entitled to do.”

I get the point that it might’ve been the wake up call he needed, and Hendo makes that point too, but I didn’t like what I saw. You’ve mentioned his reaction; it took him an age to get on terms with Calico. The reaction, or lack of, is what concerned me most.

I’d say Jonbon went deep enough. Hendo said he’d had a blow like he’s never done before.

For me, Jonbon absolutely can win the Arkle, but on form and visuals to date, El Fab is the far better bet given they are all but JF.

[Nevertoolate]

Just from watching the Irish arkle back, it seems that el fabiolo is a bit fiddly with his jumping while isolated. Daryl took him narrow in the course most the way around and he definitely got in tight at a few. It’s only when appreciate it travels alongside and they start to close the gap to DD that el fabiolos jumping is noticeably better. Maybe it’s a case of positioning him better in the race to try and avoid a mistake or two but if he can brush up a small bit he wins by 5 lengths plus IMO

[Carnage at Taunton]

Even Hendo didn’t like what he saw that day.

“It wasn’t pretty to watch and pretty awful from where I was watching as it frightened the living daylights out of me but eventually, he’s quickened up and won nicely which he was entitled to do.”

I get the point that it might’ve been the wake up call he needed, and Hendo makes that point too, but I didn’t like what I saw. You’ve mentioned his reaction; it took him an age to get on terms with Calico. The reaction, or lack of, is what concerned me most.

I’d say Jonbon went deep enough. Hendo said he’d had a blow like he’s never done before.

For me, Jonbon absolutely can win the Arkle, but on form and visuals to date, El Fab is the far better bet given they are all but JF.

Yes it frightened him as it was unexpected, but hes taking positives from it....so am i for reasons given.
When taken by surprise that means you aint ready, so no surprise it took him a bit of time to react.,
Main thing for me was no panic from the jockey as it was plenty far out, and the horse then jumped well at speed, which stands him in good stead.

When i say deep, i mean the opposition EF has faced.

[archie]

For a novice, El Fabiolo has jumped perfectly adequately. When he's made a mistake it has hardly affected his momentum at all and the claim that Jonbon might gain a length at every fence is wide of the mark. Any novice is capable of a catastrophic error at Cheltenham and that's The Price You Pay but just an average round of safe jumping should see El Fabiolo in The Promised Land.

I've probably mentioned it before but I share a birthday with The Boss. Only seen him the once, at Wembley in 1981 on the original River tour.

[robith]

Born to run by Bruce Springsteen

In The Sopranos, Christopher walks in one episode and says "Sorry I'm late - the highway was jammed with broken heroes on a last chance power drive"

This shows that it is canon that Bruce exists in the Sopranos universe.

Yet no one ever says "Hey Silv, you don't half look like the guitarist in the E Street band"

Really black mark for the show's realism, always takes me out of the moment

[Jrow]

I still cant work out why Townend chose to ride AI at the DRF. Surely they knew before DRF that El Fab was the one.

[That Horse]

In The Sopranos, Christopher walks in one episode and says "Sorry I'm late - the highway was jammed with broken heroes on a last chance power drive"

This shows that it is canon that Bruce exists in the Sopranos universe.

Yet no one ever says "Hey Silv, you don't half look like the guitarist in the E Street band"

Really black mark for the show's realism, always takes me out of the moment

Yep. Christopher also shoots someone in the foot in the first series, harking back to his character, Spider, getting shot in the foot by Tommy (Joe Pesci) in Goodfellas. "It happens" is his line afterwards. Taken in isolation, you'd think the show was just a shit parody

[Carnage at Taunton]

For a novice, El Fabiolo has jumped perfectly adequately. When he's made a mistake it has hardly affected his momentum at all and the claim that Jonbon might gain a length at every fence is wide of the mark. Any novice is capable of a catastrophic error at Cheltenham and that's The Price You Pay but just an average round of safe jumping should see El Fabiolo in The Promised Land.

I've probably mentioned it before but I share a birthday with The Boss. Only seen him the once, at Wembley in 1981 on the original River tour.

See this I don’t get……..an average round of jumping SHOULD see EF in the promised land.
Why not Jonbon with a similar round of jumping? Or better!!
You know something I don’t?

[BigChaang]

For a novice, El Fabiolo has jumped perfectly adequately. When he's made a mistake it has hardly affected his momentum at all and the claim that Jonbon might gain a length at every fence is wide of the mark. Any novice is capable of a catastrophic error at Cheltenham and that's The Price You Pay but just an average round of safe jumping should see El Fabiolo in The Promised Land.

I've probably mentioned it before but I share a birthday with The Boss. Only seen him the once, at Wembley in 1981 on the original River tour.

I find it hard to have an actual Favourite Bruce Springsteen Song , Archie ..
But Hungry Heart is definitely near the Top of the list , From the River Album .
The River was the song that got me into " The Boss " .
1981 .... where has the time gone ??..

[archie]

See this I don’t get……..an average round of jumping SHOULD see EF in the promised land.
Why not Jonbon with a similar round of jumping?
You know something I don’t?

Because, in my opinion, El Fabiolo has the bigger engine. The only danger to him is a serious (more serious than we have seen from him as yet) jumping error. You clearly don't agree which is entirely your prerogative.

[AaronLad]

Because, in my opinion, El Fabiolo has the bigger engine. The only danger to him is a serious (more serious than we have seen from him as yet) jumping error. You clearly don't agree which is entirely your prerogative.

1-0 jonbon though aint it?