General Chat

[darlojim]

Yeah much better to just sit on your hands now and with the cards you currently have, as if it is those 2 races that are tinkered with, the Arkle and BANC are essentially going to be more competitive than prior, therefore no value at the minute with those.

[Spectre]

I’d counter argue that by saying horses that are currently looking like Turners or NH Chase horses could be re-routed to either of the other two novice races making them races stronger and therefore harder to win, so better value may well exist at a later date.
Ultimately it’s the BHA we’re dealing with here so drastic changes are unlikely….

I disagree. If they take out the NH Chase and either remove the Turners or turn it into a handicap it won't strengthen either of the other two races.

Why would a runner from the NH Chase strengthen the Browns. It's a Grade 2 for future stayers. They just won't be on the boat.

Similarly all that happens is that Willie's best 2 or 3 from the Turners either switch to the Arkle and make him more dominant, or they don't go at all because there isn't a race that's suitable.

I don't see how either move solves anything, unless having Mullins and Elliott being responsible for more than 50% of the final fields in the remaining G1's is what they want to achieve.

Move the NH Chase to the New Course later in the week, and make it a very different test to the Brown Advisory, would be a simple enough move. Leave the Turners aloe because it's there for a purpose. The difference between going 2 miles rather than 3 miles is huge. Many horses will operate at their optimum over 2m4f.

Let's just not fool ourselves that other Trainers or Owners, are going to turn up in graded races as also rans for little or no prizemoney. There are Graded races elsewhere to run in without the Mullins and Elliott hordes dominating the entries.

The lack of competitive G1's at the Festival is singularly because all the best horses are in very few yards. It's a wasted run for no reward for everyone else, and also if you get too close you damage a handicap mark for literally no reason.

The BHA and Jockey Club just have to recognise this, otherwise they are damaging the Festival further for quite literally no reason other than someone thought it was a bright idea with no foundation.

And as I said. When were owners consulted? They're already voting with their feet, so they'd be advised to consult and consider the views of the very people that supply the product that makes the sport exist.

[Spectre]

He's another thought. Robert Kirkland won the Turners last season with Grey Dawning in a rare G1 win for a UK based horse. If the Turners didn't exist that wouldn't have happened. Robert Kirkland will invest further in the sport, and could emerge as a significant owner. If the BHA had taken the Turners away or turned it into a handicap last season that would have never have happened. Stage Star won the year before for Owners Group. That would surely have encourage lots of new small owners to get involved with them.

In fact the home team have actually won 4 of the last 6 renewals, so the Turners is case of a race that is working for the diversity of racing. Yet people want to take it away or turn it into a handicap, which in my opinion is madness.

[Lobos]

I’d counter argue that by saying horses that are currently looking like Turners or NH Chase horses could be re-routed to either of the other two novice races making them races stronger and therefore harder to win, so better value may well exist at a later date.
Ultimately it’s the BHA we’re dealing with here so drastic changes are unlikely….

That's the way I was thinking though Ista. Horses that you'd expect to go to either the NHC or Turners may well be a much bigger price now for the BANC or Arkle.

[darlojim]

That's the way I was thinking though Ista. Horses that you'd expect to go to either the NHC or Turners may well be a much bigger price now for the BANC or Arkle.

Thats a fair point Lobos thinking that way, but then you're taking a risk (unless you have cashout) that those 2 races are scrapped. Would be better to react sharp to news that breaks regarding with horses in your mind ready to back, should be able to get on if you're quick without any value loss.

[Lobos]

Thats a fair point Lobos thinking that way, but then you're taking a risk (unless you have cashout) that those 2 races are scrapped. Would be better to react sharp to news that breaks regarding with horses in your mind ready to back, should be able to get on if you're quick without any value loss.

Yep, good shout. Just have the suspicion that with trainers/owners in the know before us plebs that the prices could be snapped up prior to any news being leaked. Lots to think about.

[HoldenTheReins]

Has anyone's Bet 365 UI changed today?

It's awful and anything I click on logs me out, has been like it all day

[Istabraq]

I disagree. If they take out the NH Chase and either remove the Turners or turn it into a handicap it won't strengthen either of the other two races.

Why would a runner from the NH Chase strengthen the Browns. It's a Grade 2 for future stayers. They just won't be on the boat.

The NH Chase is a classy race in its' own right now, multiple horses have taken that novice route on the way to a Gold Cup tilt.
These amateur races are not what they were, the days of farmers riding their own horses in these races are gone, the current generation of amateur pilots would succeed in the pro field.
That of course has nothing to do with Lobos point regarding there being value in the markets before changes are announced, a point which I now fully understand, i could be miles offside in my thinking but lose a race or change its' conditions and to my mind that has to strengthen others.
Someone mentioned it earlier and I think theirs was a very valid point and that's that horses may well skip the festival for more suitable opportunities elsewhere, so a 20f horse may well have their season geared around Aintree if the Turners was changed....

[Istabraq]

I'm not sure any of the changes should be based around the dominance of any one yard.
That would be a mistake IMO.
The changes should be geared towards making the product more attractive to it's audience.
This means using methods to get the best horses racing against each other more often, even if they're from the same yard. Effectively reducing the options to avoid other elite horses.
And ensuring the handicaps are not biased towards novices or any persuasion.
If they (owners and trainers) avoid the meeting altogether then that's their choice I suppose.

What gets lost amongst the media is that a large chunk of investors in Irish NH racing are UK owners.
It's true Mullins is the best trainer of jumpers around but UK trainers aren't mugs, it's more likely owners invest with Mullins and a few other trainers because the returns in the UK are pitiful and it's become impossible to get a bet on that might help fund fees.
Just maybe if punters could get on, the levy would be in a healthier position which would create improved funding for the sport resulting in increased prize money which fuels increased investment....

[Lobos]

Hills aren't taking any chances. They have priced up the BANC and Arkle as if both the Turners and NHC were dumped. Ballyburn is 5/2 for both races.

[Saxon Warrior]

4 Graded Novice Chases (3 at Grade 1, and 1 at Grade 2) isn’t sustainable, given the amount of runners with decent Official Ratings that run across the four races.

Its too many races for the number of horses running in them, or good enough to run in them.

We can argue all we want about if a particular race should or shouldn’t be lost.


But…..

the
3M Novice Chase and
2M Novice Chase

won’t ever be lost, so focus will always be on the other two relative newcomer races to Graded status.

Something needs to change, the number of 150+ horses is shrinking not growing.

Having a Grade 2 like the NHC (despite it being punter-friendly to us in recent years) is a comparatively poor quality Graded race, for the Cheltenham Festival, with

3 runners from 7 at 150+ last year
1 from 9 before that
2 from 6 before that
2 from 12 before that

Avge 2 per year, pretty poor depth, to say the least.

…..plus not all finish the race, with a lot of one-sided, strung out placed horses, not a great advert for the meeting.

Its just not a strong enough race, on the day, with any depth to it - to be anywhere near good enough for the Cheltenham Festival - no wonder they shove it to the end of the day, and off mainstream TV coverage.

It should revert back to being something other than a Graded race…… that should be a given

Then the likes of Corbetts Cross, Stattler, Gaillard du Mesnil (for a 2nd time) and Galvin can run in the Brown Advisory, and make that a better, deeper, race.

Irish Festivals don’t muck around with 4 Graded Novice Chases.

* Punchestown has a 2M and 3M Grade 1 Novice Chase (over 5 days)

* DRF has a 2M and 2M5F Grade 1 Novice Chase

* 4-Days of Christmas Festivals now has a 2M3.5F and a 3M Grade 1 Novice Chase (having completely removed the 2M Grade 1 NovCH this year)

Ireland has the common sense to put their other two Grade 1 Novice Chases (both 2M4F) out of the way, at Easter, and the end of November,

We should take heed of this type of planning and start by reducing the number of Graded Novice Chases in March, (and Aintree 3 weeks later too) as these races just don’t get filled

Runners the last 4 years

NHC 12, 6, 9, 7 (avg 8.5)
BANC 6, 9, 10, 6 (avg 7.75)
Turners 8, 4, 7, 11 (avg 7.5)
Arkle 5, 11, 10, 9 (avg 8.75)

Overall avge 32 runners across 4 Graded Novice Chases every year (Avge 8)

Chop one out, its no loss, probably still average close to 32 runners across 3 races instead, which would be much better to watch, and for levy potential.

Theres barely more finishing these Grade 1 races, than finish a greyhound race.

[Craigy14]

The most obvious change for me has to be banning the novices from running in the open handicaps, that’s chases and hurdles. This then increases the size of the novice hurdle fields and novice chase fields.

Then making the boodles a limited handicap, which forces those better than the handicap into the triumph.

I think for too long it’s been far too easy to disguise one’s ability to get them into a handicap.

Not sure what I’d do the mid trip races as I can see both sides of the argument. It dilutes the field sizes of each of the 3 novice races in both disciplines but can also see that removing them would maybe force owners/trainers to avoid Cheltenham because of one trainers current dominance. I don’t mind the field sizes as long as they are competitive, the problem is those that maybe don’t bet antepost or follow horse racing as we all do, it probably looks less attractive as a sport to engage with. Turning up on the day and seeing so many short priced WPM favs doesn’t make the punting aspect much fun for these people. Can’t blame WPM for being as good as he is either.

[Istabraq]

The most obvious change for me has to be banning the novices from running in the open handicaps, that’s chases and hurdles. This then increases the size of the novice hurdle fields and novice chase fields.

Been saying this for years, but did realise soon after that the County Hurdle becomes massively harder to solve !
The upside of course is that many of the Supreme vouchers from November and December would probably make it past the Superbowl if those horses were forced to run in novice races only...

[Captain Chris]

He's another thought. Robert Kirkland won the Turners last season with Grey Dawning in a rare G1 win for a UK based horse. If the Turners didn't exist that wouldn't have happened. Robert Kirkland will invest further in the sport, and could emerge as a significant owner. If the BHA had taken the Turners away or turned it into a handicap last season that would have never have happened. Stage Star won the year before for Owners Group. That would surely have encourage lots of new small owners to get involved with them.

In fact the home team have actually won 4 of the last 6 renewals, so the Turners is case of a race that is working for the diversity of racing. Yet people want to take it away or turn it into a handicap, which in my opinion is madness.

Conversely, if the Turners didn't exist, then Grey Dawning would have run in the BANC, we may even have hit 8 runners in that grade 1 and not had an odds on favourite. It doesn't feel like there are enough top class horses to justify 4 graded novice chases at the festival. Turning the Turners into a handicap would also bring back one of my favourite races at the festival, so I may be biased

[Hurricane fly]

The most obvious change for me has to be banning the novices from running in the open handicaps, that’s chases and hurdles. This then increases the size of the novice hurdle fields and novice chase fields.

100% agree, it's so obvious that it won't be done though