Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Moby123]

I really liked her on the flat but just can’t warm to her as a hurdler. I think she loses ground at hurdles and she won’t get away with that in the stayers. Maybe they have done loads of schooling with her to get her sharper but she hasn’t looked a natural to me. I know it’s not as important over this trip as say 2m but if your losing 1/2 a length here and there it soon mounts up and far from ideal in a championship race.

Her hurdling was very good last time out at Galway. She is very keen though and that was evident last time out, as the pace was steady. Still being pulled back with 6f remaining.
She could be a serious challenger but needs to show form around 7-10lbs better than last time to be up with the top ones in the Stayers.
Can't rule her out although I would have expected her to be stronger in the market for today's race (3.65 at time of writing) if she was likely to show that level of improved form.

[ComplyOrDie]

Great White Shark is probably worth rolling up with todays race at her current price if you think she's a live one for the Stayers. She's 11/4 for today, meaning she'd have to go shorter than 6/1 for us not to get some sort of additional value, on her current market odds for this race (25/1 best price). I can't see her going shorter than 10's even if she dots up TBH.

[Big Bucks]

How short will GWS go, stayers has some quality horses predicted to go there. Cant see it being much off 20s on the day and maybe bag an extra place ew if wanted her?

Probably will win today but I'm gunna try 2 against her, Sixshooter and Sams profile

[Istabraq]

Great White Shark is probably worth rolling up with todays race at her current price if you think she's a live one for the Stayers. She's 11/4 for today, meaning she'd have to go shorter than 6/1 for us not to get some sort of additional value, on her current market odds for this race (25/1 best price). I can't see her going shorter than 10's even if she dots up TBH.

You think GWS would be shorter than Roksana if she wins today ?
No idea why but Roksana is becoming disrespected for this I think and I have no idea why...

[ToniC]

Not sure about his chances at the festival, but I’ve sided with sixshooter in the Galmoy today. The 3rd behind sire du berlais in the lismullen probably as good as anything in the race, was a decent novice last season, he should stay and is still relatively unexposed so should have some improvement still to come. Has form in front of pencilfulloflead from last season & won easily enough under a penalty over a trip that was probably a bit too short on his seasonal reappearance before running well in the lismullen. Neol Meade seems to be performing above average this season, 7/1 here should be a decent each way bet. If he were to win & put himself clear of this field, there’d probably be an argument to make about him being up their with the best of the Irish challenge.

[ComplyOrDie]

You think GWS would be shorter than Roksana if she wins today ?
No idea why but Roksana is becoming disrespected for this I think and I have no idea why...

She definitely shouldn't be, but.... she's a WPM mare. That is always factored in by the bookmakers.

I now have Roksana on side, and I wrote this about her on Sunday in this thread "I've come to really really like Roksana, I think she's brilliant over 3m. Never made it known before on here as I always assumed she'd go for the Mares Hurdle which I don't think suits, or wait for Aintree, but I think she has a real solid E/W chance in this now." so no disrespect from me

[charlie]

She definitely shouldn't be, but.... she's a WPM mare. That is always factored in by the bookmakers.

I now have Roksana on side, and I wrote this about her on Sunday in this thread "I've come to really really like Roksana, I think she's brilliant over 3m. Never made it known before on here as I always assumed she'd go for the Mares Hurdle which I don't think suits, or wait for Aintree, but I think she has a real solid E/W chance in this now." so no disrespect from me

I agree that Roksana is a better horse over 3m than 2m5f, but I wouldn't go as far as brilliant (although if I owned her I probably would ). She was very good the other day, but beat horses you'd never have winning this.

To me brilliant would have been beating Thyme Hill & Paisley Park in receipt of 7lbs with race fitness on her side at Ascot wouldn't it? I know she's run a great race and only lost 2L, but everything went right that day and my take is if she cant beat these two under those circumstances at Ascot, then asking her to better them at Cheltenham is a tall order, and that's before factoring in what comes over from Ireland, and improvement in younger horses like Thyme Hill.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be far from shocked if she won a stayers hurdle (cheers Lisnagar fucking Oscar), but with Aintree as a distinct possibility it would force me into a NRNB price, and @ 7/1 there's just not enough juice in it IMO.

I hope she wins again though this season, wherever it ends up being, very likeable horse

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree that Roksana is a better horse over 3m than 2m5f, but I wouldn't go as far as brilliant (although if I owned her I probably would ). She was very good the other day, but beat horses you'd never have winning this.

To me brilliant would have been beating Thyme Hill & Paisley Park in receipt of 7lbs with race fitness on her side at Ascot wouldn't it? I know she's run a great race and only lost 2L, but everything went right that day and my take is if she cant beat these two under those circumstances at Ascot, then asking her to better them at Cheltenham is a tall order, and that's before factoring in what comes over from Ireland, and improvement in younger horses like Thyme Hill.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be far from shocked if she won a stayers hurdle (cheers Lisnagar fucking Oscar), but with Aintree as a distinct possibility it would force me into a NRNB price, and @ 7/1 there's just not enough juice in it IMO.

I hope she wins again though this season, wherever it ends up being, very likeable horse

Well Paisley Park comes under the exceptional category, Thyme Hill is the improver, so Roksana being only 2 lengths off PP means she is brilliant Words, eh!

Yeah, I had noted that initially I expected her to be Mares Hurdle (although I don't think the shorter trip suit as much) or Aintree bound, but Magic Of Light is no mug in her own right, whose form figures against other mares over 2m 7f+ reads 2-1-1-1-1-1-2, she hadn't lost to another mare for nearly 3 years, and Roksana could have shouldered another 8-10lbs and still probably beat her, given the manner of her victory the last day. I do realise Magic Of Light, as per her rating, is seen to best effect over a fence, so taken this into account also.

7/1 is skinny, so I had taken the risk without the concession of NRNB. I just hope they let her take her chance now.

[Moby123]

Great White Shark is probably worth rolling up with todays race at her current price if you think she's a live one for the Stayers. She's 11/4 for today, meaning she'd have to go shorter than 6/1 for us not to get some sort of additional value, on her current market odds for this race (25/1 best price). I can't see her going shorter than 10's even if she dots up TBH.

Agreed and done. More as cover for other bets in the Stayers though!
As you say, a WPM could prove unjustifiably expensive to get in the book for the Stayers if she wins well today.

[FinalFurlong91]

Well Paisley Park comes under the exceptional category, Thyme Hill is the improver, so Roksana being only 2 lengths off PP means she is brilliant Words, eh!

Yeah, I had noted that initially I expected her to be Mares Hurdle (although I don't think the shorter trip suit as much) or Aintree bound, but Magic Of Light is no mug in her own right, whose form figures against other mares over 2m 7f+ reads 2-1-1-1-1-1-2, she hadn't lost to another mare for nearly 3 years, and Roksana could have shouldered another 8-10lbs and still probably beat her, given the manner of her victory the last day. I do realise Magic Of Light, as per her rating, is seen to best effect over a fence, so taken this into account also.

7/1 is skinny, so I had taken the risk without the concession of NRNB. I just hope they let her take her chance now.

Magic of light didnt run anywhere near to her rating against roksana

Only finished a couple of lengths clear of 131 rated coded message

Hard to see her reversing the form with the big two, Aintree though looks a good chance at a grade 1 for her over 3 miles

[Kevloaf]

Think I'll back Sams Profile for this before he runs today. Bit of a risky one since he's been all over the place recently but hopefully back over hurdles will get him back on track. Pretty sure he was being aimed at this originally last year but had a setback. Don't have access to NRNB right now but think 66/1 NRNB is a good price.

Well done.

[isitmarchyet]

Well done.

Haha, cheers. Broken clock and all that.

[Eggs]

Haha, cheers. Broken clock and all that.

...win today & place in Stayers you requested looking very nice @ 80-1.

[charlie]

Think I'll back Sams Profile for this before he runs today. Bit of a risky one since he's been all over the place recently but hopefully back over hurdles will get him back on track. Pretty sure he was being aimed at this originally last year but had a setback. Don't have access to NRNB right now but think 66/1 NRNB is a good price.

This is top work, well done

[Eggs]

....Diol Ker ran a decent race, 33-1 from 100-1 with Hills but no idea if he’ll come over.