Originally posted by Pendil
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Champion Hurdle 2021
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post75s seems fair enough.
What price will he be if he wins the Morgiana? He'd need to be shorter than 12/1 for the CH after winning the Morgiana for that to be a decent bet, and I imagine he would be.
Could easily be favourite for morgiana too.
If Aba don't run and willie only runs a couple.
If it comes back up I'll risk it.
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Isn’t 75/1 poor odds considering Unibet price him at 5/1 for Morgiana which makes it a 155/1 double?
I don’t have an account to see whether they allow you to do the double but considering 5/1 and 25/1 available the 75/1 seems very underpriced
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Originally posted by Crolwey113 View PostIsn’t 75/1 poor odds considering Unibet price him at 5/1 for Morgiana which makes it a 155/1 double?
I don’t have an account to see whether they allow you to do the double but considering 5/1 and 25/1 available the 75/1 seems very underpriced
And the likely SP in the Morgiana if he lines up.
I'd say 2/3-1 and 8/10-1 myself
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Ok with ye, maybe it’s a different way of thinking about it.
In my case with these I wouldn’t back a related double In general unless the double is overpriced.
I either fancy a horse to win both races and back him accordingly to win both or don’t do the bet don’t the price if he won the first never comes into consideration.
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Originally posted by Crolwey113 View PostOk with ye, maybe it’s a different way of thinking about it.
In my case with these I wouldn’t back a related double In general unless the double is overpriced.
I either fancy a horse to win both races and back him accordingly to win both or don’t do the bet don’t the price if he won the first never comes into consideration.
But wrong on the value aspect.
This one is value IMO.
Even if you took the antepost price of 5-1 (only available with Unibet).
Placed 1 point on it - You'd have 6 pts to stake on the new price for the Champion Hurdle.
& 10-1 that would be a total return of 66 points from an initial outlay of 1pt.
vs 75-1. on the offer.
Obviously there is a lot of guesswork involved and the manner of victory in the first leg, and the opponents will alter the prices.
But we also have a precedent.
Firstly he won the Morgiana last year and IMO should be favourite this year.
And secondly, I think his price for the champion went single figures last year after winning Morgiana. Around 8-1 best price and as low as 6-1.
Enough margin to say that 75-1 is a good price, for one of these types of bet.
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Originally posted by Quevega View PostYou're right to question it.
But wrong on the value aspect.
This one is value IMO.
Even if you took the antepost price of 5-1 (only available with Unibet).
Placed 1 point on it - You'd have 6 pts to stake on the new price for the Champion Hurdle.
& 10-1 that would be a total return of 66 points from an initial outlay of 1pt.
vs 75-1. on the offer.
Obviously there is a lot of guesswork involved and the manner of victory in the first leg, and the opponents will alter the prices.
But we also have a precedent.
Firstly he won the Morgiana last year and IMO should be favourite this year.
And secondly, I think his price for the champion went single figures last year after winning Morgiana. Around 8-1 best price and as low as 6-1.
Enough margin to say that 75-1 is a good price, for one of these types of bet.
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