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Champion Hurdle 2021

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  • Originally posted by Pendil View Post
    Change of ownership now showing in RP database, was still Gigginstown when I checkes 15 minutes ago. Cheap enough for a fun horse in good quality races albeit rising 10
    I reckon the pacemaker theory is a good bet !

    Comment


    • Yeah that's just the RP being the RP. Sold a while back to Moran as Archie says.

      Still money to be won for a relatively cheap purchase.

      Comment


      • SkyBet are offering 75/1 on Saldier to win the Morgiana and the CH... at face value that seems rather tasty

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
          SkyBet are offering 75/1 on Saldier to win the Morgiana and the CH... at face value that seems rather tasty
          Where is that ?
          cant find it.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
            Where is that ?
            cant find it.
            Been suspended now for some reason

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
              Been suspended now for some reason
              wonder why

              Comment


              • 75s seems fair enough.

                What price will he be if he wins the Morgiana? He'd need to be shorter than 12/1 for the CH after winning the Morgiana for that to be a decent bet, and I imagine he would be.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                  75s seems fair enough.

                  What price will he be if he wins the Morgiana? He'd need to be shorter than 12/1 for the CH after winning the Morgiana for that to be a decent bet, and I imagine he would be.
                  Region of 8/1 I'd say

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                    75s seems fair enough.

                    What price will he be if he wins the Morgiana? He'd need to be shorter than 12/1 for the CH after winning the Morgiana for that to be a decent bet, and I imagine he would be.
                    Yep - a good price.
                    Could easily be favourite for morgiana too.
                    If Aba don't run and willie only runs a couple.
                    If it comes back up I'll risk it.

                    Comment


                    • Isn’t 75/1 poor odds considering Unibet price him at 5/1 for Morgiana which makes it a 155/1 double?

                      I don’t have an account to see whether they allow you to do the double but considering 5/1 and 25/1 available the 75/1 seems very underpriced

                      Comment


                      • Related outcomes. He wouldn’t be 25/1 for the latter if winning the former.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Crolwey113 View Post
                          Isn’t 75/1 poor odds considering Unibet price him at 5/1 for Morgiana which makes it a 155/1 double?

                          I don’t have an account to see whether they allow you to do the double but considering 5/1 and 25/1 available the 75/1 seems very underpriced
                          You have to factor what his price will be (drop to) should he win the Morgiana though.
                          And the likely SP in the Morgiana if he lines up.
                          I'd say 2/3-1 and 8/10-1 myself

                          Comment


                          • Ok with ye, maybe it’s a different way of thinking about it.

                            In my case with these I wouldn’t back a related double In general unless the double is overpriced.
                            I either fancy a horse to win both races and back him accordingly to win both or don’t do the bet don’t the price if he won the first never comes into consideration.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Crolwey113 View Post
                              Ok with ye, maybe it’s a different way of thinking about it.

                              In my case with these I wouldn’t back a related double In general unless the double is overpriced.
                              I either fancy a horse to win both races and back him accordingly to win both or don’t do the bet don’t the price if he won the first never comes into consideration.
                              You're right to question it.
                              But wrong on the value aspect.
                              This one is value IMO.
                              Even if you took the antepost price of 5-1 (only available with Unibet).
                              Placed 1 point on it - You'd have 6 pts to stake on the new price for the Champion Hurdle.
                              & 10-1 that would be a total return of 66 points from an initial outlay of 1pt.

                              vs 75-1. on the offer.

                              Obviously there is a lot of guesswork involved and the manner of victory in the first leg, and the opponents will alter the prices.

                              But we also have a precedent.
                              Firstly he won the Morgiana last year and IMO should be favourite this year.
                              And secondly, I think his price for the champion went single figures last year after winning Morgiana. Around 8-1 best price and as low as 6-1.

                              Enough margin to say that 75-1 is a good price, for one of these types of bet.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                                You're right to question it.
                                But wrong on the value aspect.
                                This one is value IMO.
                                Even if you took the antepost price of 5-1 (only available with Unibet).
                                Placed 1 point on it - You'd have 6 pts to stake on the new price for the Champion Hurdle.
                                & 10-1 that would be a total return of 66 points from an initial outlay of 1pt.

                                vs 75-1. on the offer.

                                Obviously there is a lot of guesswork involved and the manner of victory in the first leg, and the opponents will alter the prices.

                                But we also have a precedent.
                                Firstly he won the Morgiana last year and IMO should be favourite this year.
                                And secondly, I think his price for the champion went single figures last year after winning Morgiana. Around 8-1 best price and as low as 6-1.

                                Enough margin to say that 75-1 is a good price, for one of these types of bet.
                                It’s back up now ����

                                Comment

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