Champion Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Market as of 22/5/2020




I personally won't entertain a bet on Goshen at 5/1 whilst Epatante is 4/1 - which isn't to say Goshen can't end up thrashing her, but with only 1 pt difference I just wouldn't be able to have that much 'faith' at single figure odds. Obviously I'm not backing Epatante at single figure odds either, but if I had to place a bet it'd be on the one that had the form in the book at those prices.

Abacadabras at 8/1 would fall in the same category, so whilst I like him and can see it as a possibility he wins the Champion Hurdle, he's only double the price of Epatante and that doesn't look like value either.

Then Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Honeysuckle are quoted at less than 20/1 a piece, but I don't think there is any chance at all Honeysuckle would run here. The other two I'm anticipating being Novice Chasers, however if they weren't I'd look to take the 14/1 and 16/1 just because they being double the price of Abacadbras would be wrong. I imagine the moment the news broke though the odds would be slashed... (you'd hope they'd push Abacadbras out but wishful thinking no doubt)

Then it's 4x Willie Mullins horses Saldier, Saint Roi, Sharjah and Benie Des Dieux at 25/1 along with previous winner Buveur D'air. Striking BDD off the list who won't be in the race the other 4 have cases to be made at 25/1.

Chantry House and Concertista are 33/1 and it's 40/1 bar.


The four horses in bold interest me the most at the moment with a view to making a book...but I'll go in to that more in the diary whenever I do.




Looks like we've got a very healthy amount to debate in this race though, Saint Roi, Goshen and Epatante have already taken up plenty of pages so let's get it all in one place

[Eggs]

....it’ll be fascinating to see what that price comparison table looks like at the turn of the year.

[Nortons who]

GOSHEN

Let's start with Goshen. If I hadn't already had a number of bets in the CH I would be backing Goshen now at 5-1 with Cash Out. This is on the following basis:
# Visually a very impressive performance in the Triumph Hurdle. In my opinion the best we have seen since Our Conor.
# Although Goshen didn't win the Truimph he was miles clear and unlucky that after the last fence stumble his legs / hooves got caught together (watch the slow motion replays on Youtube) as without that I'm certain he would still have won.
# Connections will go for the CH, so his target is almost certain.
# Goshen is being lined up for some lofty targets / prizes on the flat. Should he perform well in these then his price for the CH could shorten further (conversely it could go the other way but personally I think positive performances on the flat will have more of an impact on his CH price than poor ones).
# Epatante has to get to the CH and maintain that level of form. According to the Archie factor it's only Even money that she will make the festival.
# So if Epatante doesn't make the grade or the race but Goshen does then what price would Goshen be on the day?

Much of the above is conjecture of course but that's the beauty and risk of AP betting, especially this far out. I do though think the performances of Goshen on the Flat is a factor which punters wouldn't usually have to take into account. So should we back Godshen* before or after his Flat campaign.

Personally Goshen does look to me like one of those horses which only comes around every once in a long time. Gary and Jamie Moore are massively impressed and enthused by him and Gary's description of him being a 'freak' is probably close to the mark.

Before anyone makes up their minds on Goshen , I strongly urge you to watch all of his race replays and actually listen to the race commentaries.

[Kevloaf]

Who would you back in a 2 mile hurdle race between Envoi Allen and Goshen at 5/6 the pair?

Calling Goshen a horse that comes around once in a long time might be a bit premature, he's not even the best novice hurdler we have at the moment is he? I reckon Envoi Allen would beat him over any distance still?


All we know, is he was head and shoulders above the juveniles... we don't know he's better than the horses in the Supreme yet?


When you have a Champion Hurdler at 4/1, and a hype horse at 5/1 (and that is what he is at the moment) - I'd be with the form over fantasy at this stage.



I would also strongly advise against backing Goshen now at 5/1 - he has major flat targets and he has the same fudge factor that Epatante has so you could say what price will Epatante be if Goshen doesn't make it.... That doesn't make either a good bet at this stage for me, at those prices. How short can they make him? Let's say he does do well over the summer, he'd only go joint fav with Epatante wouldn't he? On next seasons hurdles bow in open company, let's imagine he wins nicely.... only then could they make him FAVOURITE for the Champion Hurdle? You'd be anticipating 3/1 at that point. I would 100% rather take 3/1 knowing more about him than 5/1 now.

Plus I will be backing him at some point during that flat campaign where I'd be hopeful of making money on him anyway?



I've watched Goshen's replays multiple times over, he is incredibly exciting... but exciting doesn't always equate to a good betting proposition, in my opinion

[ComplyOrDie]

Cor dear, that's a question and a half, Envoi vs Goshen over two miles, but I couldn't have Envoi beating Goshen at the distance. I'd price them up:

Goshen 8/13
Envoi Allen 6/4

Any distance over 2m 2f and it would be Envoi I'd side with. The way Goshen races he probably wouldn't get much further than 2m 1f, before he started struggling, IMO.

As said before though, I agree about his current price. Just glad I'm on at 11's.

With regards to a flat campaign, I'd prefer him not too, to be perfectly honest, I think he comes alive over hurdles. Be surprised if he'd get high enough in the weights for a crack at the Ebor.

[Istabraq]

I’ve backed Saldier here on price alone, assuming full recovery and running here 25/1 is an insane price for a horse who was fav for a period last season.
A case can be made for the runner up, Sharjah, at 25/1 but nothing else stands out for me.
This market will change massively in the Autumn when we know which horses will be chasing...

[ComplyOrDie]

I’ve backed Saldier here on price alone, assuming full recovery and running here 25/1 is an insane price for a horse who was fav for a period last season.
A case can be made for the runner up, Sharjah, at 25/1 but nothing else stands out for me.
This market will change massively in the Autumn when we know which horses will be chasing...

Yeah, agree about Saldier, Ista.

Beating of Sharjah, he's lightly raced still, surely some improvement to come. One nagging doubt is his only performance at the festival to date.

[Istabraq]

Yeah, agree about Saldier, Ista.

Beating of Sharjah, he's lightly raced still, surely some improvement to come. One nagging doubt is his only performance at the festival to date.

Duel G1 winner, needs soft ground which these days almost guaranteed to get on Tuesday, happy to keep pressing.
That said you have to question his wellbeing until he proves his fitness and, I haven’t heard/read this anywhere, always a chance they consider chasing...

[hardheld]

Really Love Abacadabras, I thought he was a hound, but looking back at Supreme he was the best horse in the race. As soon as he hit the front he idled from the home turn all the way to the last. Once Shishkin joined him, he surprised me how he picked up and battled up the run in. He has improved mentally and on better ground he will bag a few grade 1s next year. Massive player in the champion hurdle. Have backed him

[Faugheen_Machine]

Cor dear, that's a question and a half, Envoi vs Goshen over two miles, but I couldn't have Envoi beating Goshen at the distance. I'd price them up:

Goshen 8/13
Envoi Allen 6/4

Any distance over 2m 2f and it would be Envoi I'd side with. The way Goshen races he probably wouldn't get much further than 2m 1f, before he started struggling, IMO.

As said before though, I agree about his current price. Just glad I'm on at 11's.

With regards to a flat campaign, I'd prefer him not too, to be perfectly honest, I think he comes alive over hurdles. Be surprised if he'd get high enough in the weights for a crack at the Ebor.

Not sure Envoi Allen should be 6/4 in any race. I think he's the best horse in training and would win anything from Champion Hurdle to Gold Cup

[ComplyOrDie]

Not sure Envoi Allen should be 6/4 in any race. I think he's the best horse in training and would win anything from Champion Hurdle to Gold Cup

Oh, I know you would have it differently for sure. I know you love EA.

He was ridden to get competitive in the Ballymore before oozing clear, but his turn of foot wasn't that of say, Faugheen, and therefore I think Goshen would be much too quick over two miles for him.

Just my opinion

[taylorch1990]

Think Epatante is a really solid favourite and 4-1 is a fair price. As much as I like Goshen and Abacadabras there just too short for what they've achieved so far. Agree about Saldier he has the talent just whether he makes it to the festival, and I've already made a case for Marie's Rock at a big price.

[Istabraq]

Not sure Envoi Allen should be 6/4 in any race. I think he's the best horse in training and would win anything from Champion Hurdle to Gold Cup

Yeah I agree, I missed CoD’s post.

I’m of the view Envoi Allen could win every G1 novice chase as well as both championship G1 hurdle races next year, he really looks that good. Lazy yes, but incredibly talented.
Shades of Altior in some respects, only really does just enough and unlikely to ever put distance between his field.
There was a stage in his Ballymore he looked in danger but the gear change he showed to go from 3l down to 3l in front was impressive and that suggested to me he could win a champion hurdle but chasing looks the plan.
Could easily be a five time festival winner...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Oh, I know you would have it differently for sure. I know you love EA.

He was ridden to get competitive in the Ballymore before oozing clear, but his turn of foot wasn't that of say, Faugheen, and therefore I think Goshen would be much too quick over two miles for him.

Just my opinion

I'd be gutted if he lined up in a champion hurdle though.

I'm a huge Goshen fan too CoD and think he could be special as well but just think EA might end up being the best I've seen.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd be gutted if he lined up in a champion hurdle though.

I'm a huge Goshen fan too CoD and think he could be special as well but just think EA might end up being the best I've seen.

Yeah, fair point, if that is how you view him, then can see why you would think that.

As Ista has just pointed out above, he can look a little lazy, you couldn't afford to do that in a championship 2m race. Can't see him lining up in a Champion Hurdle myself, so I think you are safe