Champion Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm happy to forgive a lot of seasonal debuts and the one from Abacadabras is no different. At the end of the day his top end form is just being beat by Envoi Allen and Shishkin. That's solid, for me.

A few things went against him today, IMO, firstly, race fitness. I can't have that he is on a par or thereabouts with Jason The Militant, so I can only assume he was well undercooked for that. Secondly, he seemed to race the wider course on the bends, coupled with the race fitness side of things that was never going to help. And lastly, I think he's better suited coming through a field as he is a strong traveller, so unless the Champion Hurdle field absolutely capitulates, I think that race will suit more than today's three runner affair (not counting the other outsiders).

Another likely small field in the Morgiana is unlikely to suit, but he will be fitter for it, so I may see what price we can get for that race and the Champion Hurdle, if someone hasn't already done so.

[Quevega]

I'm happy to forgive a lot of seasonal debuts and the one from Abacadabras is no different. At the end of the day his top end form is just being beat by Envoi Allen and Shishkin. That's solid, for me.

A few things went against him today, IMO, firstly, race fitness. I can't have that he is on a par or thereabouts with Jason The Militant, so I can only assume he was well undercooked for that. Secondly, he seemed to race the wider course on the bends, coupled with the race fitness side of things that was never going to help. And lastly, I think he's better suited coming through a field as he is a strong traveller, so unless the Champion Hurdle field absolutely capitulates, I think that race will suit more than today's three runner affair (not counting the other outsiders).

Another likely small field in the Morgiana is unlikely to suit, but he will be fitter for it, so I may see what price we can get for that race and the Champion Hurdle, if someone hasn't already done so.

I disagree on the back form (overall, not just the two races you mentioned). It's just not Champion hurdle class.
But the rest of your comments are fair I reckon.
These second seasoners often struggle early on as it's a jump in class, and the races are not always ran to suit (especially if you're not really top classy)
But a strongly run race like you described and he may well run well in March.

[charlie]

I'm happy to forgive a lot of seasonal debuts and the one from Abacadabras is no different. At the end of the day his top end form is just being beat by Envoi Allen and Shishkin. That's solid, for me.

A few things went against him today, IMO, firstly, race fitness. I can't have that he is on a par or thereabouts with Jason The Militant, so I can only assume he was well undercooked for that. Secondly, he seemed to race the wider course on the bends, coupled with the race fitness side of things that was never going to help. And lastly, I think he's better suited coming through a field as he is a strong traveller, so unless the Champion Hurdle field absolutely capitulates, I think that race will suit more than today's three runner affair (not counting the other outsiders).

Another likely small field in the Morgiana is unlikely to suit, but he will be fitter for it, so I may see what price we can get for that race and the Champion Hurdle, if someone hasn't already done so.

Dunno COD, I'm willing to forgive most one run let alone a seasonal debut, but I'd be put off that he's cruised into the race on the snaff (as he has done before) and made very little impression - makes me less inclined to blame race fitness IMO, but I am sure he will come on for the run.

[Kevloaf]

Dunno COD, I'm willing to forgive most one run let alone a seasonal debut, but I'd be put off that he's cruised into the race on the snaff (as he has done before) and made very little impression - makes me less inclined to blame race fitness IMO, but I am sure he will come on for the run.

Cruising in to the race the not seeing it through is exactly how a horse lacking in fitness would run though isn't it?

Unofrtunately, it's also the way a horse he didn't want to put it all in would run.


It makes his next run hugely important. I won't give up on him just yet but I am certain nobody is considering backing him based on today and his current price.


Saint Roi will wallop him anyway

[charlie]

Cruising in to the race the not seeing it through is exactly how a horse lacking in fitness would run though isn't it?

Unofrtunately, it's also the way a horse he didn't want to put it all in would run.

It makes his next run hugely important. I won't give up on him just yet but I am certain nobody is considering backing him based on today and his current price.

Saint Roi will wallop him anyway

Theres no doubt some truth in that Kev, but I'd expect a horse lacking fitness to send out some sort of warning signal (albeit minor) earlier than Abacadabras did today. He failed to deliver late into the race when looking very comfortable within himself and full of running - when I look at how well supported he was, how well he looked visually, plus the rave reports beforehand, plus how the race panned out, and then Gordon saying 'he took a bit of a blow' (sounding like even he doesn't want to blame fitness), it collectively leaves me less inclined to think he wasn't fully fit.

I could be completely wrong as it was a first run after all - for all I know he could have been at 80% today and absolutely piss up in the Morgiana and make me look a fool - that being said even if he was at 80% today I don't think him at 100% would be good enough to beat reigning champ Saldier.

PS. I'd love Saint Roi to win the CH

[Lobos]

Saint Roi now clear 2nd fav in Champion Hurdle. Says how open it is really......bar Epatante of course.

[Pendil]

Theres no doubt some truth in that Kev, but I'd expect a horse lacking fitness to send out some sort of warning signal (albeit minor) earlier than Abacadabras did today. He failed to deliver late into the race when looking very comfortable within himself and full of running - when I look at how well supported he was, how well he looked visually, plus the rave reports beforehand, plus how the race panned out, and then Gordon saying 'he took a bit of a blow' (sounding like even he doesn't want to blame fitness), it collectively leaves me less inclined to think he wasn't fully fit.

I could be completely wrong as it was a first run after all - for all I know he could have been at 80% today and absolutely piss up in the Morgiana and make me look a fool - that being said even if he was at 80% today I don't think him at 100% would be good enough to beat reigning champ Saldier.
PS. I'd love Saint Roi to win the CH

I think its a bit unfair to concentrate on Aba today rather than the winner. Aspire Tower last year was best front running and when anything came close he picked up again. He looked about to be overwhelmed coming to the 2nd last but found again

[Kevloaf]

Theres no doubt some truth in that Kev, but I'd expect a horse lacking fitness to send out some sort of warning signal (albeit minor) earlier than Abacadabras did today. He failed to deliver late into the race when looking very comfortable within himself and full of running - when I look at how well supported he was, how well he looked visually, plus the rave reports beforehand, plus how the race panned out, and then Gordon saying 'he took a bit of a blow' (sounding like even he doesn't want to blame fitness), it collectively leaves me less inclined to think he wasn't fully fit.

I could be completely wrong as it was a first run after all - for all I know he could have been at 80% today and absolutely piss up in the Morgiana and make me look a fool - that being said even if he was at 80% today I don't think him at 100% would be good enough to beat reigning champ Saldier.

PS. I'd love Saint Roi to win the CH

Taking a bit of a blow means he wasn't fit doesn't it? Like, 'taking a blow' is the absolute cliche for 'not fully fit' isn't it? That is how I process that comment so if I am off the mark please tell me!

There is no doubt whatsoever that I am somewhat more willing to forgive today because I've backed him. I'm aware of that so understand if people consider it biased. I consider that myself however I feel I should allow him one more run. Ultimately, my most likely winners have been Epatante, Abacadabras and Saint Roi.... one of them has flopped, one enhanced his claims (and he's the one I've made the case for and gotten most effusive about) and the other hasn't ran yet but she clearly sets the standard. I have literally nothing negative to say about Epatante. I just haven't backed her yet at the price she is. It's a fair price, possibly even a value price BUT I won't be backing horses at single figures very often this side of Christmas.

Epatante is shorter than a DUAL Gold Cup winner, so whilst I like her, I'm not annoyed that I havne't taken 4/1.

[Kevloaf]

I think its a bit unfair to concentrate on Aba today rather than the winner. Aspire Tower last year was best front running and when anything came close he picked up again. He looked about to be overwhelmed coming to the 2nd last but found again

The vibes from the Irish last year were that their juveniles were junk. T.Mullins putting up Goshen as his nap, because the Irish juveniles were shite, sticks in my mind.

I know you have 50/1, and fair enough, I think most people would take that... but he;s not anywhere near my idea of the actual Champion Hurdle winner. I honestly think a horse like Cilaos Emery would see him off. I think Abacadabras will in a re-match too - for now.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I was out yesterday so only caught up with the racing late last night.

While it was disappointing from Aba but I'm willing to forgive and see what he does next time. He's much better than that and I wouldn't be writing him off after one race.

Form boost for Goshen though 

[charlie]

I think its a bit unfair to concentrate on Aba today rather than the winner. Aspire Tower last year was best front running and when anything came close he picked up again. He looked about to be overwhelmed coming to the 2nd last but found again

Eh? The first thing I said post race was that I've added Aspire Tower, and this conversation is specifically about Abacadabras.

[charlie]

Taking a bit of a blow means he wasn't fit doesn't it? Like, 'taking a blow' is the absolute cliche for 'not fully fit' isn't it? That is how I process that comment so if I am off the mark please tell me!

There is no doubt whatsoever that I am somewhat more willing to forgive today because I've backed him. I'm aware of that so understand if people consider it biased. I consider that myself however I feel I should allow him one more run. Ultimately, my most likely winners have been Epatante, Abacadabras and Saint Roi.... one of them has flopped, one enhanced his claims (and he's the one I've made the case for and gotten most effusive about) and the other hasn't ran yet but she clearly sets the standard. I have literally nothing negative to say about Epatante. I just haven't backed her yet at the price she is. It's a fair price, possibly even a value price BUT I won't be backing horses at single figures very often this side of Christmas.

Epatante is shorter than a DUAL Gold Cup winner, so whilst I like her, I'm not annoyed that I havne't taken 4/1.

Thats how we are all supposed to interpret 'taking a blow' so you are definitely not off the mark, I just don't buy it.

I haven't backed Epatante either for the same reasons

[Lobos]

Thats how we are all supposed to interpret 'taking a blow' so you are definitely not off the mark, I just don't buy it.

I haven't backed Epatante either for the same reasons

At what point will you guys be backing Epatante? After she wins the Fighting 5th she could be 5/2. Would you take that or would you then think that was too low to bet her at all ? Surely risking some on the 9/2 that was on offer only a few days ago was a risk worth taking?

[charlie]

At what point will you guys be backing Epatante? After she wins the Fighting 5th she could be 5/2. Would you take that or would you then think that was too low to bet her at all ? Surely risking some on the 9/2 that was on offer only a few days ago was a risk worth taking?

Honest answer, I don't know, but I can't justify 7/2 in October. Avoiding prices like that now will pay off long term so I can make my peace with not touching it, although I appreciate her price will probably only head one way.

That being said, she might not win the Fighting Fifth. BVD lost at 2/13, so stranger things have happened. Playing devils advocate, Epatante won a fairly plain looking champion hurdle. I know she won with plenty in hand and looks very very good, but how hard was it to look very very good beating that lot? I suspect next year will be far more competitive, so happy to sit tight for now.

[Craigy14]

At what point will you guys be backing Epatante? After she wins the Fighting 5th she could be 5/2. Would you take that or would you then think that was too low to bet her at all ? Surely risking some on the 9/2 that was on offer only a few days ago was a risk worth taking?

Happy to wait and take 5/2 as then most of the Irish will have run as well so we should know exactly what she is likely to face.

Morgiana winner throws their hat straight in the mix so Epatantes price will unlikely go shorter either until she races/wins.