Champion Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

So we're now comparing form lines of the GB's horses, who all have been suspect and inconsistent?

SFS was pushed a long from the 4th. There's no maybe, SFS didn't run his race. SFS running his race makes him a sub-160 horse (OR 158)
SFS looks like a 2 miler, no surprise he did well in the International which is over the new course
Goshen was receiving 6lbs

Horses for courses
Wincanton is a very fast course and you really do need a horse that travels around it. The two-mile track there is one of the quickest in Britain and you run downhill virtually all the way from the home turn. If something poaches a lead turning in, chances are it won’t come back to you, so jockeys have to be very careful about positioning. Letting a rival get away from you at that point, especially one with stamina, can be disastrous. It’s certainly not unusual for the one in front at the second-last to stay there all the way to the line.


No surprise that a flat track horse that gallops and front runs has beaten what looks like a middle distance Grade 2 handicap who was struggling from the off, whilst also carrying 6lbs less

The GB form lines are a mess, which is often a noticeable warning sign. Don't get me wrong, I dont mind a improver who's finishing seconds in top graded races, particularly one that could be better at the Festival because conditions will suit....

It wasn't a problem for Song For Someone last season when he won the Kingwell at the fast flat track of Kempton on better ground too. Fact is Goshen got him out of his comfort zone, because when Goshen is up with the pace it's what he has done to pretty much every challenger he has faced.

The flat track thing about Goshen is an absolutely myth that some are clinging onto. He's won at Fontwell, Sandown and was going to destroy the Triumph Hurdle field (of which the form has mostly held up well since) at Cheltenham. If he's beat in the Champion Hurdle it won't be for the course, it will be because Honeysuckle is better than him with the mares allowance. I say Honeysuckle because she's clear of the rest, IMO.

Agree about the form lines, but I'll be surprised if Goshen can't be forgiven for his run prior to the Kingwell, now.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yes it does

SFS ran like sh*t, probably ran up up to mark of 145

145 + 20 - 6 = 159

Lets say SFS didnt run that badly, and ran a 150 - which I very much doubt

150 + 20 - 6 = 164

So Goshen, in the best case scenario ran up to a 164. Good luck trying to beat either of the mares off a 164 whilst having to lump 7 lbs more on his back, in a race which is going to be more tactical, over a course (old) which may not suit

My position with Goshen hasn't changed

- he's a grade 2 horse, who can and will put the odd performance which is visually impressing
- he needs the race to go a certain way
- yet to be prove he's good enough in proper grade 1 companys
- only way he has a chance next move is if the going is soft-heavy, he gets a easy lead, and the Moore's just go hell for leather

Earlier in the week, 20/1 + was a good bet based on the above concerns and limitations.
At 5/1, you'd want to see more consistency, proven in the grade and proven in such company

164 and not even remotely extended. Had Epatante done that yesterday, she'd be getting all sorts of plaudits and rightly so.

Navajo Pass (156) and Friend or Foe (146) were beaten 40+ lengths. Are you saying that every single horse in the race massively under performed, and Goshen is just an ok winner of the race?

[Ray]

Yeh i agree, im not really on goshen for the champion hurdle..but if the 2 mares done that yesterday people would be going nuts about them...i think people need to gice the credit where its due and accept a new player is in the game...epatante in the fighting fifth had alot of plaudits for her run, the form lines arent as impressive as what goshen done yesterday, not even close

[opatcho]

It wasn't a problem for Song For Someone last season when he won the Kingwell at the fast flat track of Kempton on better ground too. Fact is Goshen got him out of his comfort zone, because when Goshen is up with the pace it's what he has done to pretty much every challenger he has faced.
.

Song For Someone last year beat

- Deigo Du Charmil now rated 145
- Ch'tibello, a decent handicap... wins the odd grade 2
- Zamabella - rated 137
- Quick Grabim - yeah
- Elgin, was returning from 10 years off the track

Song For Someone is a half decent horse, and thats me being polite.

Lets see how Goshen goes when he has Silver Streak and Aspire Tower fighting for the lead in a CH. Lets see how far this horse is willing to dig to establish and maintain the lead, and the stay on up that hill.

He's going to throw the towel in

Also, when is going to throw this horse over the final damn fence, he's going to come back and bit him in the ass again. Little experience of battling side by side over the last jump, little exposure to battling back and fighting on if a horse comes up to challenge with 2 furlongs left.

As I say, the only way he wins the CH if is the Moores are brave on him, and just go out - do a For Pleasure and just run, and hope nothing can come back him. However, there's a fair few I can see that will

[Hardy Eustace]

Agree opatcho. But even him blazing off in front will probably set the race up nicely for epatante and honey.

[ComplyOrDie]

Song For Someone last year beat

- Deigo Du Charmil now rated 145
- Ch'tibello, a decent handicap... wins the odd grade 2
- Zamabella - rated 137
- Quick Grabim - yeah
- Elgin, was returning from 10 years off the track

Song For Someone is a half decent horse, and thats me being polite.

Lets see how Goshen goes when he has Silver Streak and Aspire Tower fighting for the lead in a CH. Lets see how far this horse is willing to dig to establish and maintain the lead, and the stay on up that hill.

He's going to throw the towel in

Also, when is going to throw this horse over the final damn fence, he's going to come back and bit him in the ass again. Little experience of battling side by side over the last jump, little exposure to battling back and fighting on if a horse comes up to challenge with 2 furlongs left.

As I say, the only way he wins the CH if is the Moores are brave on him, and just go out - do a For Pleasure and just run, and hope nothing can come back him. However, there's a fair few I can see that will

Another myth right there, that he has to lead. Admittedly he doesn't want to be midfield or stuck in on the rail, but did you actually watch the Triumph? He got a lead from both Allmankind and Aspire Tower. He'd happily track Silver Streak and Aspire Tower like he did last season. He didn't throw the towel in then, he went further clear!

He made a jumping mistake at the last, granted, but also got his horse shoes stuck, which, IMO, was what cost him as Jamie couldn't regain any balance.

[FinalFurlong91]

"Lets see how Goshen goes when he has Silver Streak and Aspire Tower fighting for the lead in a CH. Lets see how far this horse is willing to dig to establish and maintain the lead, and the stay on up that hill."

Goshen didnt lead yesterday nor in the triumph

he sat third in behind aspire tower and allmankind in the triumph

And navajo pass led yesterday

[Faugheen_Machine]

Am I the only one wondering what Big Fish's charts would have made of Goshen yesterday

[Exar Essay]

I agree that wanting to lead could be a myth, but what do we all think about the other long held criticism of him that he doesn’t like company? A number of horses are confirmed for this, some surprising ones too (JDB, For Pleasure etc) which means we’re likely to have at least 11 in the race by my count. Not a huge field but bigger than yesterday’s and bigger than his poor run LTO. Is that likely to be an issue?

[Istabraq]

Am I the only one wondering what Big Fish's charts would have made of Goshen yesterday

They’re bound to appear in here in some form of another...

[charlie]

The SFS form line shouldn't be taken literally IMO as he never travelled a yard, but that doesn't detract from Goshen looking very good - he beat the rest of the field easily and I doubt they all underperformed. I still have my reservations about him though. I don't particularly like it as a trial and think it can flatter to deceive.

[opatcho]

Another myth right there, that he has to lead. Admittedly he doesn't want to be midfield or stuck in on the rail, but did you actually watch the Triumph? He got a lead from both Allmankind and Aspire Tower. He'd happily track Silver Streak and Aspire Tower like he did last season. He didn't throw the towel in then, he went further clear!

He made a jumping mistake at the last, granted, but also got his horse shoes stuck, which, IMO, was what cost him as Jamie couldn't regain any balance.

Goshen does not need to lead, agreed. But he will won win a tactical Champion Hurdle.
This horse has 1 gear. Only want to benefit from this is going from the front.

Yeah, aware of his performance in last years race. Aware of his performance over the weekend. Not forgotten his attitude in between these performances.

[Outlaw]

164 and not even remotely extended. Had Epatante done that yesterday, she'd be getting all sorts of plaudits and rightly so.

Navajo Pass (156) and Friend or Foe (146) were beaten 40+ lengths. Are you saying that every single horse in the race massively under performed, and Goshen is just an ok winner of the race?

Like how you've taken the highest figure and used it .To date he hasn't run to any G1 figure, now I'm not saying he can't but he still has to produce something 12lbs + better than he has to date to be winning a CH. Yday they went very quick early doors on that ground early and it clearly didn't bother him which is testament to his ability to carry on in his comfort zone, but the rest fell out there arses and all ran well short of their ratings. On a quicker surface with established G1 horses it will be a completely different ball game IMO.

To clarify i don't dislike the horse and as a fan i'd love to see him show up a monster effort as the division would welcome a proper high 160s horses for a few year to come, i'm just saying to date he hasn't produced anything like that yet for all he might not of had too. It almost feels a bit like the Laurina build up now albeit i do think he's a better 2m than she was!

[Ice]

Whatever yesterday's performance was it has certainly sparked some great debate on here, really enjoying reading it.

[opatcho]

Surprising how many people are coming out of the wood work after his win this weekend, where were you all a week ago
Guessing most are disparately searching their antepost's bet, checking whether they still had Goshen backed at 6/1 from August

He's back, the supporters are back.

Those savvy enough would got Goshen backed at the right price 14/1 - 20/1+. Those backing him at silly price continue to search for strong reasons to justify their initial lay out, at least folks can dream on for another few weeks.

Do you think Henry De Bromhead has had a sleepless night, maybe.... we've just a god. Maybe he's on the blower to connections, "Goshen is a beast.... we need to drivet the Honey to the mare novice"
Behave