Champion Hurdle 2021

[Faugheen_Machine]

Like how you've taken the highest figure and used it .To date he hasn't run to any G1 figure, now I'm not saying he can't but he still has to produce something 12lbs + better than he has to date to be winning a CH. Yday they went very quick early doors on that ground early and it clearly didn't bother him which is testament to his ability to carry on in his comfort zone, but the rest fell out there arses and all ran well short of their ratings. On a quicker surface with established G1 horses it will be a completely different ball game IMO.

To clarify i don't dislike the horse and as a fan i'd love to see him show up a monster effort as the division would welcome a proper high 160s horses for a few year to come, i'm just saying to date he hasn't produced anything like that yet for all he might not of had too. It almost feels a bit like the Laurina build up now albeit i do think he's a better 2m than she was!

I just quoted the official ratings but it does suit my point

He does have to step up to win a Champion Hurdle but I do believe he has a good chance.

Can't remember who made the point yesterday but I can see the thinking of backing Goshem to win but also place laying him as well - I might do that myself. He's a win or bust type horse for me.

[Kevloaf]

Surprising how many people are coming out of the wood work after his win this weekend, where were you all a week ago
Guessing most are disparately searching their antepost's bet, checking whether they still had Goshen backed at 6/1 from August

He's back, the supporters are back.

Those savvy enough would got Goshen backed at the right price 14/1 - 20/1+. Those backing him at silly price continue to search for strong reasons to justify their initial lay out, at least folks can dream on for another few weeks.

Do you think Henry De Bromhead has had a sleepless night, maybe.... we've just a god. Maybe he's on the blower to connections, "Goshen is a beast.... we need to drivet the Honey to the mare novice"
Behave

That really would be running scared getting her back in a novice race

[Faugheen_Machine]

Surprising how many people are coming out of the wood work after his win this weekend, where were you all a week ago
Guessing most are disparately searching their antepost's bet, checking whether they still had Goshen backed at 6/1 from August

He's back, the supporters are back.

Those savvy enough would got Goshen backed at the right price 14/1 - 20/1+. Those backing him at silly price continue to search for strong reasons to justify their initial lay out, at least folks can dream on for another few weeks.

Do you think Henry De Bromhead has had a sleepless night, maybe.... we've just a god. Maybe he's on the blower to connections, "Goshen is a beast.... we need to drivet the Honey to the mare novice"
Behave

Or is it those that have backed Epatante at silly short odds desperately trying to convince themselves that she is still a good thing

I'd rather have Goshen at 6/1 than evens Epatante

[Outlaw]

I just quoted the official ratings but it does suit my point

He does have to step up to win a Champion Hurdle but I do believe he has a good chance.

Can't remember who made the point yesterday but I can see the thinking of backing Goshem to win but also place laying him as well - I might do that myself. He's a win or bust type horse for me.

You've actually used unofficial ratings from another user coupled with literal distances but if it suits that's fine

Yeah it's prob a fair comment about him being all or nothing bet type especially to those cynical like myself not that im endorsing his current price!

[Faugheen_Machine]

You've actually used unofficial ratings from another user coupled with literal distances but if it suits that's fine

Yeah it's prob a fair comment about him being all or nothing bet type especially to those cynical like myself not that im endorsing his current price!

I thought you were referring to the rating of Navajo Pass and FoF.

[DenmanSacre]

I'm with Opatcho and Outlaw on this. The race turned out to be dire (it was 4-5 seconds quicker than the first novice hurdle and the winner is around a 120 horse) and it hasn't taken much to win the race. Maybe Goshen can win the Champion Hurdle but it will take a significant improvement from his previous form.

He's a 5 year old and it either takes a special 5 year old to win this race, or a below average renewal. This won't be a below average renewal and I don't think Goshen is special so not for me. Those on at 40/1 have a decent ticket, but I wouldn't personally fancy him to be in the top 3.

[Carnage at Taunton]

So we're now comparing form lines of the GB's horses, who all have been suspect and inconsistent?

SFS was pushed a long from the 4th. There's no maybe, SFS didn't run his race. SFS running his race makes him a sub-160 horse (OR 158)
SFS looks like a 2 miler, no surprise he did well in the International which is over the new course
Goshen was receiving 6lbs

Horses for courses
Wincanton is a very fast course and you really do need a horse that travels around it. The two-mile track there is one of the quickest in Britain and you run downhill virtually all the way from the home turn. If something poaches a lead turning in, chances are it won’t come back to you, so jockeys have to be very careful about positioning. Letting a rival get away from you at that point, especially one with stamina, can be disastrous. It’s certainly not unusual for the one in front at the second-last to stay there all the way to the line.


No surprise that a flat track horse that gallops and front runs has beaten what looks like a middle distance Grade 2 handicap who was struggling from the off, whilst also carrying 6lbs less

The GB form lines are a mess, which is often a noticeable warning sign. Don't get me wrong, I dont mind a improver who's finishing seconds in top graded races, particularly one that could be better at the Festival because conditions will suit....

However, Goshen is a 10/1 chance at best... appreciate the bookies are likely to react in the way they have done because of their AP positions. But still makes me laugh how short Goshen is.

Honeysuckle may have 1-2 negatives/doubts, same with Epatante and Sharjah.... but the rest of the field is a pile of sh*te.

I have the results as

1) Honeysuckle
2) Sharjah
3) Epatante. I may boost Epatante up is Hendo wins a few races today, and she looks clam and collected as she make her way day for this race

Sharjah at 16/1 is an insult, he could be the next My Tent Or Yours... a consistent horse that may not be good enough to win, but the W/O and place market for him will be where I'll be sitting now.

Tbh, with Goshen "coming back", he will set this race up for Honeysuckle (who has the pace to go with but stays) and Sharjah who will sit back and pick up the pieces

I see absolutely nowt wrong with looking at formlines, it’s for me part of trying to be work out a race, amongst other factors.
Anyway i Won’t go on about it as others have kindly answered for me!!
wish you luck.

[Brooksie]

I'm with Opatcho and Outlaw on this. The race turned out to be dire (it was 4-5 seconds quicker than the first novice hurdle and the winner is around a 120 horse) and it hasn't taken much to win the race. Maybe Goshen can win the Champion Hurdle but it will take a significant improvement from his previous form.

He's a 5 year old and it either takes a special 5 year old to win this race, or a below average renewal. This won't be a below average renewal and I don't think Goshen is special so not for me. Those on at 40/1 have a decent ticket, but I wouldn't personally fancy him to be in the top 3.

god knows how far we have to go back to find a 5 year old beating two mares at the head of the betting

[Ice]

Surprising how many people are coming out of the wood work after his win this weekend, where were you all a week ago
Guessing most are disparately searching their antepost's bet, checking whether they still had Goshen backed at 6/1 from August

He's back, the supporters are back.

Those savvy enough would got Goshen backed at the right price 14/1 - 20/1+. Those backing him at silly price continue to search for strong reasons to justify their initial lay out, at least folks can dream on for another few weeks.

Do you think Henry De Bromhead has had a sleepless night, maybe.... we've just a god. Maybe he's on the blower to connections, "Goshen is a beast.... we need to drivet the Honey to the mare novice"
Behave

A week ago he hadn't just produced a wide margin win to throw his hat in the ring !

[DenmanSacre]

god knows how far we have to go back to find a 5 year old beating two mares at the head of the betting

2/12 for those 2 mares after the CH so lets hope the 2 mares in this are better than that! Espoir D'Allen's form with Wicklow Brave, Stormy Ireland and Saldier is stronger than Goshen's heading into the race and his best RPR of 164 was very good for a 5 year old at that stage.

[opatcho]

That really would be running scared getting her back in a novice race

You watch people question why Brave Way has improved so much, winning by 20 lenghts

[DenmanSacre]

167 RPR for Goshen for yesterday mind boggling

[Kevloaf]

167 RPR for Goshen for yesterday mind boggling

So that run yesterday, was only 4 lbs worse than Buveur D'air or Espoir D'Allen's Champion Hurdle wins.

[Outlaw]

So that run yesterday, was only 4 lbs worse than Buveur D'air or Espoir D'Allen's Champion Hurdle wins.

Reckon a few of that RP panel have dockets on him ?

[opatcho]

167 RPR for Goshen for yesterday mind boggling

Goshen, 181 after his wins the CH
Mind boggling indeed