Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[lethalsteps]

Don’t be taking that all!

Uhtred Supreme and Farouk D’alene Ballymore double is going to be my starting point. Will likely add one more for the treble.

Samcro GC for Gigginstown treble?

[lethalsteps]

I'm intrigued by the link between horses who finish second in the Arkle and go on to win the following season's Gold Cup.

Wherever he runs at the Festival next season he'll be in with a shout - and after prattling on for so long (apologies to anyone who's got this far) I felt honour-bound to have a little GC dabble at 50s with B365 and a Ryanair tickle at nearly 37-1 with WH bet boost.

Thanks, I'll definitely note him down. I didn't realise he was so young. He also beat Melon over fences this season who Mullins has tipped for the GC in the future.

[Kevloaf]

Interesting read nortonscoin200.

I'd be surprised if they did send a 6 year old right the way back up in trip next year but I'd have said the same about Sizing John. (Was on the right side of him after playing the NRNB before the Irish Gold Cup) which is EXACTLY how I'd play Fakir for the Gold Cup (if possible)


Le Richebourg for exactly the same connections may potentially be a factor too, but a long way to go before needing to split the pack

[lethalsteps]

Interesting read nortonscoin200.

I'd be surprised if they did send a 6 year old right the way back up in trip next year but I'd have said the same about Sizing John. (Was on the right side of him after playing the NRNB before the Irish Gold Cup) which is EXACTLY how I'd play Fakir for the Gold Cup (if possible)


Le Richebourg for exactly the same connections may potentially be a factor too, but a long way to go before needing to split the pack

If anything surely Le Richebourg goes to the Champion Chase?

[Kevloaf]

If anything surely Le Richebourg goes to the Champion Chase?

He might well do, but on balance is his 0.5L defeat to Delta Work over 2m4f that much worse than being 7L better than Us And Them at 2 miles?


I wouldn't be amazed by any stretch if they at least tried Le Richebourg up in trip again at some stage...

[Middle_Of_March]

Evening all. Plan to do my analysis and my profit/loss write ups in the next few weeks (there’s nothing else going on after all) but I’m in no rush with it. Almost like as soon as I’ve done that, it’s all over for the year which is never a nice realisation when you’ve had a winning festival. Anyway.. placed an antepost multi already. Did a yankee in four horses with Paddy Power who were best odds on all four. Tell me what loses here lads..

Goshen - Champion Hurdle - 6/1
Chacun Pour Soi - Champion Chase - 6/1
Defi Du Seuil - Ryanair - 20/1
Paisley Park - Stayers - 10/1

11,318/1


Anyone got any thoughts on this? Think all are fair prices (definitely value for Defi and Paisley anyway). Have to dream with the four winning.

[TigerRolllllll]

Evening all. Plan to do my analysis and my profit/loss write ups in the next few weeks (there’s nothing else going on after all) but I’m in no rush with it. Almost like as soon as I’ve done that, it’s all over for the year which is never a nice realisation when you’ve had a winning festival. Anyway.. placed an antepost multi already. Did a yankee in four horses with Paddy Power who were best odds on all four. Tell me what loses here lads..

Goshen - Champion Hurdle - 6/1
Chacun Pour Soi - Champion Chase - 6/1
Defi Du Seuil - Ryanair - 20/1
Paisley Park - Stayers - 10/1

11,318/1


Anyone got any thoughts on this? Think all are fair prices (definitely value for Defi and Paisley anyway). Have to dream with the four winning.

Goshen looked good, but will need to improve a stone on ratings to beat Epatante, who could improve further as not run many races.....and tough for a 5 year old.

Chacun biggest risk prob fitness, but looks best form

Depends route Defi goes.....but must admit 20-1 looks tempting

Think Paisley had a heart issue, so could be high risk

[TigerRolllllll]

Yeah he'll definitely race again unless he picks up another injury?


It's a fair enough price....but it'll be 25/1 probably still in August so perhaps not one to take now?

Or at least wait for a positive update and take slightly shorter.


I don't expect Honeysuckle, Envoi Allen or Shishkin to run here.... Abacadabras I do, so 10/1 versus 25/1 based on their achievements makes some appeal but I do think the entire crop of novices were very good so he'll probably be too old to win one now

Agree novices coming through look good

Having banged drum for Epatante all year....will continue as i think we could under-estimate form of CH....RPR with allowance was as good as Buveir at his best and must be potential to improve further given number of runs

Think i may hold bets for now as no idea when racing will return.....but assuming it does.....5-1 in few months time will look very good about Epatante and will be linking planting of doubles in

[Al Ferof]

Looking long range this far out is silly stuff but a couple who I think would contract fairly quickly next season from current prices would be:

THYME HILL 25/1 struck me as a good option at the prices for the RSA. He ran superbly given how some of Hobbs horses ran and if he were to win a couple of egg and spoon chases in the winter he’d be 10/1.

Latest Exhibition to me looks more of a JLT horse and I think he carries the requisite speed for it.

TOPOFTHEGAME 20/1 Gold Cup

You’ve all beaten me to it- the RSA 2019 form is high class and he would be an exciting one to watch if they keep him sound.



ABRACADABRAS 10/1

Shishkin highly likely to go chasing we believe and with Gordon having both Abracadabras and Envoi Allen in the barn we suspect the latter is going novice chasing at this early stage don’t we?

If that is how it plays out, Abracadabras really ought to go unbeaten in Ireland that season as there is nothing in his class over 2m. He can be played as late as you want to play him due to how he travels and he would be in the shakeup of any Champion Hurdle. To pull so far clear of promising types like Chantry House and the form franker by Envoi on multiple occasions tells you he’s a player.

Epatante was overlooked by me far too much this season and her weight allowance and performances say she is the one to beat at this stage so lots of respect for her.

[Eggs]

Looking long range this far out is silly stuff but a couple who I think would contract fairly quickly next season from current prices would be:

THYME HILL 25/1 struck me as a good option at the prices for the RSA. He ran superbly given how some of Hobbs horses ran and if he were to win a couple of egg and spoon chases in the winter he’d be 10/1.

Latest Exhibition to me looks more of a JLT horse and I think he carries the requisite speed for it.

TOPOFTHEGAME 20/1 Gold Cup

You’ve all beaten me to it- the RSA 2019 form is high class and he would be an exciting one to watch if they keep him sound.



ABRACADABRAS 10/1

Shishkin highly likely to go chasing we believe and with Gordon having both Abracadabras and Envoi Allen in the barn we suspect the latter is going novice chasing at this early stage don’t we?

If that is how it plays out, Abracadabras really ought to go unbeaten in Ireland that season as there is nothing in his class over 2m. He can be played as late as you want to play him due to how he travels and he would be in the shakeup of any Champion Hurdle. To pull so far clear of promising types like Chantry House and the form franker by Envoi on multiple occasions tells you he’s a player.

Epatante was overlooked by me far too much this season and her weight allowance and performances say she is the one to beat at this stage so lots of respect for her.

....I think Hobbs has already said Thyme Hill’s objective is the Stayers Hurdle.

[lethalsteps]

....I think Hobbs has already said Thyme Hill’s objective is the Stayers Hurdle.

Do you have a link or something to where he said that?

[Hardy Eustace]

Call me a slag but I cant resist a little bit of Gypsy Island at 12/1 TWAR with Skybet. 1 point added and may add a few free bets given it missed this season so if the worst does happen (like this year) it wont have too big an impact on the P&L. First ante-post bet done.

Am with a lot of others on Abracadabras 10/1 is a very fair price for the Champion he will be my second antepost bet just weighing up 1-3 points. Its a bit early for 3 points but I dont have much else to throw my money at!

[Eggs]

Do you have a link or something to where he said that?

....I can’t remember where I read it and I could be wrong but I think the article suggested Hobbs was thinking more Stayers Hurdle than chasing.

[nortonscoin200]

Thanks, I'll definitely note him down. I didn't realise he was so young. He also beat Melon over fences this season who Mullins has tipped for the GC in the future.

I think Melon is a fascinating contender for the 2021 Gold Cup.

As you say, Willie is already thinking about a GC tilt with Melon and realistically its got to be next year - because the horse will be nine by then.

I reckon Willie will begin next season by building Melon's race programme around a crack at the GC. He simply can't afford to leave it another year. The chance will have gone.

And , as everyone knows, Melon's Cheltenham Festival is awesome: 2017 second in the Supreme, 2018 and 19 runner-up in the Champion Hurdle and now second in the Marsh on only his fourth run over fences.

He was coming back at Samcro at the finish too.

You have to say there's no way Melon should be 40-1 best price for next year's GC when Samcro is 8-1 and a dodgy jumper like Champ is 14s.

He's in the same ownership as Al Boum Photo but I wouldn't imagine that would put them off wanting to run two in the big one.

[Kevloaf]

He's in the same ownership as Al Boum Photo but I wouldn't imagine that would put them off wanting to run two in the big one.

It's not an obvious step for Melon though?

The obvious race for him is the Ryanair, no?

When they have a horse going for a 3rd Gold Cup, I'm not sure they'll avoid ABP, but it doesn't make sense to force a GC horse when he looks like a Ryanair horse?