Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Priceiskey]

Yeah agree with that, I think Ista could be right though, Brewin one I’ll be keeping an eye on for the brown ad or the Tuesday novice chase as at least one will survives. Just don’t think he’s a quick enough jumper for 2 miles and not got the class imo to challenge in a Ryanair.

I’ve always had Brewinupastorm down as overrated and tripless but he seems the apple of Murphys eye and he knows the horse a lot better than I do.

[kinloch brae]

I’ve always had Brewinupastorm down as overrated and tripless but he seems the apple of Murphys eye and he knows the horse a lot better than I do.

I would say you are correct. It's certainly my view. I backed him for the JLT last season but they showed no inclination to step him up in trip. It seems they are now rolling the dice because he was in trouble from an early stage in the Arkle. He has plenty to prove at whatever trip and I suspect he probably just isn't as good as the initial hype suggested.

[Fatjockey69]

I’m very much looking forward to seeing Sir Gerhard. Cheveley Park paid 400k for him after his ptp win. Gordon Elliott said he showed class and a lot of speed after his win without coming off the bridle. I think even though he’ll be a 6 year old come next March this will be cheveley parks bumper horse as they have already got Ferny hollow for supreme and Ballyadam for ballymore and deploy the getaway for the Albert Bartlett.
It’s a race they clearly target and will want to win it for the 3rd successive year. 37/1 with the boost with William hill is a cracking bet.

[7barrows]

Quick question - if you have a non - runner in an ante post trixie is that the whole bet down or will you get the single double ? This is with betfair

[Craigy14]

I’m very much looking forward to seeing Sir Gerhard. Cheveley Park paid 400k for him after his ptp win. Gordon Elliott said he showed class and a lot of speed after his win without coming off the bridle. I think even though he’ll be a 6 year old come next March this will be cheveley parks bumper horse as they have already got Ferny hollow for supreme and Ballyadam for ballymore and deploy the getaway for the Albert Bartlett.
It’s a race they clearly target and will want to win it for the 3rd successive year. 37/1 with the boost with William hill is a cracking bet.

I’d be very surprised if we didn’t see him over obstacles next season.

Possibly start him in a bumper then over hurdles would be my way of thinking.

[ComplyOrDie]

Quick question - if you have a non - runner in an ante post trixie is that the whole bet down or will you get the single double ? This is with betfair

You still get the double with the other two selections in a trixie bet.

[The King Pimm]

I’m intrigued to see what happens with the JP pair of Blue Sari and Andy Dufrense. Both cost a lot of money and big things were expected but both disappointed this season especially Blue Sari. Anyone read anything about their plans next season??

[Kautostar]

Would imagine Andy dufresne will go chasing

[The King Pimm]

Just added Longhouse Poet for the Marsh Novice at 85/1 on the bet fair exchange’s. Bought to be a chaser, he won his PtP and was regarded as a really good athletic jumper. He disappointed over hurdles in the Ballymore, tiring at the end but is a huge price for the Marsh (50/1 with a number of leading bookmakers). I’ve taken the 85’s and will add at 50’s soon.

[7barrows]

How many points is a sensible staking at this stage of ante post....I am trying to work out the general view on getting a good early ante post position and getting gun ho and doing too many early bets.. for those that been doing this year in year out what is an average point position to be in at now... and that has paid off from using the previous years festival form. Would people mind sharing their current position and ante post success from betting this early,

say I am working with a 100 point bank for the festival, what do you justify as 'sensible' points already...

p.s I am not betting on any novice hurdle races yet..Just acquiring a shortlist.

[Istabraq]

Only you can answer that George.
I know people who only bet AP and others who refuse to part with any cash until raceday, everyone adopts differing strategies, there’s no set right/wrong generic approach....

[7barrows]

Only you can answer that George.
I know people who only bet AP and others who refuse to part with any cash until raceday, everyone adopts differing strategies, there’s no set right/wrong generic approach....

You appear to love an early bet, do they tend to be working for you this early in years gone by ? Theres a lot of bets I like after reviewing this year festival and personally I feel like we've already seen lots of next years winners at cheltenham 2020 - I just wondered if this is known not be as lucrative as it might be appearing to me currently...

[Outlaw]

How many points is a sensible staking at this stage of ante post....I am trying to work out the general view on getting a good early ante post position and getting gun ho and doing too many early bets.. for those that been doing this year in year out what is an average point position to be in at now... and that has paid off from using the previous years festival form. Would people mind sharing their current position and ante post success from betting this early,

say I am working with a 100 point bank for the festival, what do you justify as 'sensible' points already...

p.s I am not betting on any novice hurdle races yet..Just acquiring a shortlist.

You can answer this a dozen ways. Plenty would have a bank and divide that by a 100 and not spend more than 3-5 points on any one selection and whilst many might apply the same logic to their antepost you will see in "Diary" section folk spend 100s of points and many more than there day to day punting bank. What are you comfortable tying up and "spending"? As following someone blind is not a guarantee to make a profit no matter how successful they have been historically. I'd suggest reading the Diary section of this season to get a feel for what some users lay out. Then decide if you want to try to create a book for a race or merely back horses you have a strong opinion, wether that be from your own analysis or others who post.

[The King Pimm]

How many points is a sensible staking at this stage of ante post....I am trying to work out the general view on getting a good early ante post position and getting gun ho and doing too many early bets.. for those that been doing this year in year out what is an average point position to be in at now... and that has paid off from using the previous years festival form. Would people mind sharing their current position and ante post success from betting this early,

say I am working with a 100 point bank for the festival, what do you justify as 'sensible' points already...

p.s I am not betting on any novice hurdle races yet..Just acquiring a shortlist.

I’m just putting on base level bets on at the moment to get the chosen horse covered and will top up throughout the season so 1 point e/w max for me. Very few, if any, of these horses will race now until October so a few prices will shorten but most will stay steady unless a comment from a trainer or jockey results in a plunge. Personally I wouldn’t get carried away but just cover what you fancy and then wait until horse racing resumes.

[7barrows]

You can answer this a dozen ways. Plenty would have a bank and divide that by a 100 and not spend more than 3-5 points on any one selection and whilst many might apply the same logic to their antepost you will see in "Diary" section folk spend 100s of points and many more than there day to day punting bank. What are you comfortable tying up and "spending"? As following someone blind is not a guarantee to make a profit no matter how successful they have been historically. I'd suggest reading the Diary section of this season to get a feel for what some users lay out. Then decide if you want to try to create a book for a race or merely back horses you have a strong opinion, wether that be from your own analysis or others who post.

Yeah to be fair I’ve realised it’s very vague. I’ll take a look thanks

Looking foward to sport returning as it’s borderline obsessive how much I’m thinking about Cheltenham 21