2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[riccirich]

Not a surprise, there have been times this season when you might have thought he was favourite just to bypass Cheltenham. That seems to confirm both the course, and potential stamina issues. He could easily end up being a flat track bully. We know his jumping, although not blemish free at Newbury, will likely keep him in contention, but if something is upsides at the last it will be very interesting to see what happens. It could be a repeat of last year,

Last year was over 2m 5f, and he was more outpaced I thought than outstayed? Imo bob just had an extra gear that BMG doesn't, and he got burned off from trying to go with bob, but I'm not sure that means he has stamina doubts.

There was no sign of any stamina concerns at christmas, as much as that particular race was not much of a test, but I personally feel that a little too much is made of how easy 3m is at kempton, I mean it's still a 3m race at the end of the day, and vautour for example looked like he'd have no problem with three miles when hacking up over 2m 5m at cheltenham, only to tie up after the last in the king george.

BMG didn't look the strongest finisher a couple times in his early runs this season but I think that was probably just a lack of fitness as much as anything, I may be wrong but if he's beaten at cheltenham I doubt it will be down to not staying the trip.

[kinloch brae]

Last year was over 2m 5f, and he was more outpaced I thought than outstayed? Imo bob just had an extra gear that BMG doesn't, and he got burned off from trying to go with bob, but I'm not sure that means he has stamina doubts.

There was no sign of any stamina concerns at christmas, as much as that particular race was not much of a test, but I personally feel that a little too much is made of how easy 3m is at kempton, I mean it's still a 3m race at the end of the day, and vautour for example looked like he'd have no problem with three miles when hacking up over 2m 5m at cheltenham, only to tie up after the last in the king george.

BMG didn't look the strongest finisher a couple times in his early runs this season but I think that was probably just a lack of fitness as much as anything, I may be wrong but if he's beaten at cheltenham I doubt it will be down to not staying the trip.

The race will answer the questions. I think Kempton and Cheltenham are chalk and cheese. Kempton is a sharper track with the three fences in the home straight, Cheltenham just has one, and of course the hill. That finish can change any race, as it did when Champ won this race. They could have run Bravemansgame at Cheltenham this season, but they ran Threeunderthrufive instead. Why was that? Why all the chat about going to Aintree? Why big up the King George as his Gold Cup? All that doesn't strike me as a show of confidence.

[Exar Essay]

Last year was over 2m 5f, and he was more outpaced I thought than outstayed? Imo bob just had an extra gear that BMG doesn't, and he got burned off from trying to go with bob, but I'm not sure that means he has stamina doubts.

I'd agree he was outpaced by Bob ... but he was outstayed by GDM and very nearly by Bear Ghylls who wasn't even in the picture with a furlong to go. For all that Bob put on the after burners, BMG's engine failed too.

[kinloch brae]

I'd agree he was outpaced by Bob ... but he was outstayed by GDM and very nearly by Bear Ghylls who wasn't even in the picture with a furlong to go. For all that Bob put on the after burners, BMG's engine failed too.

I think that's exactly what happened. Decent rider on board and Bear Ghylls would have finished third.

[charlie]

I'd agree he was outpaced by Bob ... but he was outstayed by GDM and very nearly by Bear Ghylls who wasn't even in the picture with a furlong to go. For all that Bob put on the after burners, BMG's engine failed too.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Ballymore run. Go through RSA winners in history and you're just as likely to find pulled up in the Albert Bartlett or down the field in a handicap as you are to find a proper decent Grade 1 novice hurdler.

[Exar Essay]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Ballymore run. Go through RSA winners in history and you're just as likely to find pulled up in the Albert Bartlett or down the field in a handicap as you are to find a proper decent Grade 1 novice hurdler.

I'm not paying too much attention. Just responding to the specific point made IRO last years race.

FWIW, I think BMG wins this easily if GDC goes elsewhere.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm not paying too much attention. Just responding to the specific point made IRO last years race.

FWIW, I think BMG wins this easily if GDC goes elsewhere.

And if Lhomme Presse runs here?

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm not paying too much attention. Just responding to the specific point made IRO last years race.

FWIW, I think BMG wins this easily if GDC goes elsewhere.

After GDC the rest of the irish stayers look like a very average bunch to me so I'd be hopeful BMG would win

The main dangers could well be ahoy senor and l'homme presse but they have questions to answer themselves

Id be much much happier having GDC and BMG running for me here and just having Bob in the turner's though

[Exar Essay]

And if Lhomme Presse runs here?

Would be interesting, but I really don't think he does.

[DenmanSacre]

And if Lhomme Presse runs here?

Venetia has reported a virus in the yard so hopefully he stays clear of the virus and turns up here or the Turners in top form.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Would be interesting, but I really don't think he does.

Probably ground will determine that.
If it’s not soft I can see LP in this.
Would avoid Bob and GDC as well.

[Lobos]

[QUOTE=Carnage at Taunton;n361908]

Probably ground will determine that.
If it’s not soft I can see LP in this.
Would avoid Bob and GDC as well.[/QUOTE
Exactly this.

[riccirich]

The race will answer the questions. I think Kempton and Cheltenham are chalk and cheese. Kempton is a sharper track with the three fences in the home straight, Cheltenham just has one, and of course the hill. That finish can change any race, as it did when Champ won this race. They could have run Bravemansgame at Cheltenham this season, but they ran Threeunderthrufive instead. Why was that? Why all the chat about going to Aintree? Why big up the King George as his Gold Cup? All that doesn't strike me as a show of confidence.

I agree that cheltenham is a stiffer test, I just think a little too much is made of how much stiffer it is, the way a lot of people talk you would think 3m at kempton is like 2m 4f at cheltenham or something, which I think is a bit silly. You have the hill at the end, but you also have a downhill part that horses freewheel down which you could argue gives them a breather before they approach the hill.

I think BMG not going to cheltenham this season and nicholls talking about the king george is just another sign of nicholls anti cheltenham attitude he seems to be adopting of late, I'm not sure that indicates a lack of confidence in BMG though. Form-wise nicholls possibly had the best juvenile of last season in monmiral, who beat the triumph second at aintree, yet he avoided cheltenham with him too for easier pickings at aintree, but on that aintree run he could have easily won the triumph or gone very close, which shows that even when he has the ammo he is reluctant to go to cheltenham.

[riccirich]

I'd agree he was outpaced by Bob ... but he was outstayed by GDM and very nearly by Bear Ghylls who wasn't even in the picture with a furlong to go. For all that Bob put on the after burners, BMG's engine failed too.

I think its easy to see a horse being passed at the end of a race and assume it is because he didn't stay the trip, but I think the fact that BMG was the only horse who was actually trying to go with bob was the reason that he tired late. Gdm and bear ghylls were further back and closed him down late because BMG was trying to go quicker than he was capable to actually win the race imo, whereas the others were only playing for places at that point.

If you go back and watch the grade 1 at the drf last year that GDM won you will see stattler being passed/closed down late on over 2m 6f after trying to set a good pace and then go with GDM at the business end, you could make the arguement on that run that stattler didn't stay or his engine failed, yet it was his staying power that won him a 3m chase a few weeks ago.

I feel its a similar scenario with BMG, and none of his runs this season would make me worry to much about him not staying at cheltenham, but its only an educated guess at this point and I may be proved wrong.

[kinloch brae]

I think its easy to see a horse being passed at the end of a race and assume it is because he didn't stay the trip, but I think the fact that BMG was the only horse who was actually trying to go with bob was the reason that he tired late. Gdm and bear ghylls were further back and closed him down late because BMG was trying to go quicker than he was capable to actually win the race imo, whereas the others were only playing for places at that point.

If you go back and watch the grade 1 at the drf last year that GDM won you will see stattler being passed/closed down late on over 2m 6f after trying to set a good pace and then go with GDM at the business end, you could make the arguement on that run that stattler didn't stay or his engine failed, yet it was his staying power that won him a 3m chase a few weeks ago.

I feel its a similar scenario with BMG, and none of his runs this season would make me worry to much about him not staying at cheltenham, but its only an educated guess at this point and I may be proved wrong.

I think Stattler's very interesting. I thought he was much better on his chasing debut over the shorter trip than when he fell over the line last time. He didn't get home in the Albert Bartlett last year, and ended up being trounced by Vanillier. It's a big if, but if Derek O'Connor can get Vanillier jumping, then it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if exactly the same thing happened again.