2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Exar Essay]

riccirich Haven’t quoted you around save scrolling thumbs.

But I don’t disagree at all about the horses form this year.

I think it’s top class this year, and my only doubt is his ability to stay the hill. It’s a doubt based on one run though. As you say, that might’ve been self induced in trying to stay with Bob rather than the hill itself. A bit like Chacun, it’s hard to say off one run.

Nicholls says he’s stronger and he does look it too. That could've positively affect his ability to stay.

[Carnage at Taunton]

From what I’ve seen this season, I have no doubts about him getting home. It’s not as if he ain’t winning over 3 miles!!

[Exar Essay]

From what I’ve seen this season, I have no doubts about him getting home. It’s not as if he ain’t winning over 3 miles!!

That's fair enough and I wouldn't disagree on this years performances at all. It's last years run at Cheltenham that's just niggling and we all know the Chelts track can be a different beast.

I didn't return the favour by the way; who do you think wins this (assume LP turns up)?

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’m not sure to be honest . I have a feeling LP might just be a better horse, but he’s been running over less distance.
If I had to choose I would trust his trainer that LP would be fine stepping up, and probably side with him….. I think!!

[kinloch brae]

Has there been one word from the trainer to suggest that L'Homme Presse would suddenly step up in trip just to avoid the other two? If there has, I have missed it. That's what the majority thought would happen with Galopin Des Champs (and he actually had form over three miles), but as we know that idea hasn't come to fruition. If anyone has backed him for the Turners, and plenty have, I don't see why you wouldn't think he had every chance of beating the other two. Bob Olinger is very much still about what he achieved over hurdles. At this stage I don't see Capodanno as anything more than a Grade 2 horse, and it was no surprise that he was run down. As for Galopin Des Champs it has first and foremost about the visual impression he has created. If you wanted you could question the substance of both of his runs. It is a big plus for L'Homme Presse to have track form, and for me he is the most solid jumper of the three.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Has there been one word from the trainer to suggest that L'Homme Presse would suddenly step up in trip just to avoid the other two? If there has, I have missed it. That's what the majority thought would happen with Galopin Des Champs (and he actually had form over three miles), but as we know that idea hasn't come to fruition. If anyone has backed him for the Turners, and plenty have, I don't see why you wouldn't think he had every chance of beating the other two. Bob Olinger is very much still about what he achieved over hurdles. At this stage I don't see Capodanno as anything more than a Grade 2 horse, and it was no surprise that he was run down. As for Galopin Des Champs it has first and foremost about the visual impression he has created. If you wanted you could question the substance of both of his runs. It is a big plus for L'Homme Presse to have track form, and for me he is the most solid jumper of the three.

I’ve not heard anything re avoiding horses in the Turners.
Just that they may step up if ground suits that.
I was just saying if they did step up, they would avoid the other two and thinking that it’s possible that would be in their thoughts

[Eggs]

I’ve not heard anything re avoiding horses in the Turners.
Just that they may step up if ground suits that.
I was just saying if they did step up, they would avoid the other two and thinking that it’s possible that would be in their thoughts

….Venetia Williams concerned she has a virus in the yard. Must be a concern for any of hers;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/February/28/williams-admits-to-some-concerns-over-well-being-of-her-string

[Carnage at Taunton]

….Venetia Williams concerned she has a virus in the yard. Must be a concern for any of hers;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022...-of-her-string

Thanks Eggs
yes I have seen that, let’s hope they can keep as many sound as possible, certainly be a real shame if her good ones missed the festival

[Lobos]

From that statement from the owner clearly if it's a dry week and starts on G/S then he'll run on the Wednesday.

[kinloch brae]

….Venetia Williams concerned she has a virus in the yard. Must be a concern for any of hers;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022...-of-her-string

It would be very disappointing if he was pulled, both for punters, and the race. The implication from those comments is that he needs soft ground, which seems a little strange as three of his four wins were on good to soft. Seems a bit silly to say if it starts good to soft it will definitely end up being good. Yes, that might be true if it's a dry week.

[harchibald]

Does anyone else other than myself think that Gallopin will run here rather than the Turners? if he does run here the 6-1 available on the exchanges currently will have represented excellent value.

I guess its difficult to guess what Willie is thinking and even Patrick doesn't appear to be able to work it out. When I saw Bob Olinger committed to the Turners, it made me even more convinced that Gallopin will avoid him and turn up here. Some experts think Gallopin would be more suited to the Turners but he's been full of running at the end of his races and difficult to pull up after running over the shorter distances. He has Bravemansgame to beat here whereas if he goes Turners, he has to take on Bob and L'Homme Presse.

[giantcauseway]

Does anyone else other than myself think that Gallopin will run here rather than the Turners? if he does run here the 6-1 available on the exchanges currently will have represented excellent value.

I guess its difficult to guess what Willie is thinking and even Patrick doesn't appear to be able to work it out. When I saw Bob Olinger committed to the Turners, it made me even more convinced that Gallopin will avoid him and turn up here. Some experts think Gallopin would be more suited to the Turners but he's been full of running at the end of his races and difficult to pull up after running over the shorter distances. He has Bravemansgame to beat here whereas if he goes Turners, he has to take on Bob and L'Homme Presse.

Agree with you on that. It's simply not his thing to be bolder with his alphas than he has to be. Originally, I was thinking and looking to Energumene vs Shishkin as symbolic that he is getting braver but his comments about CPS suggests the Ricci horse is still the alpha in his eyes. I just agree with you that WPM will revert to type. We shall see soon enough.

Personally, I'd love to see Bob vs GDC. Yes I do have AP bets on both but money isn't everything! I think this is the clash of the week, along with the Supreme race and perhaps the NH Chase too. Some might say Champion Chase and Gold Cup but novices always get myself excited!

[FinalFurlong91]

Id love to see gdc vs Bob

At punchestown...

[Quevega]

Agree with you on that. It's simply not his thing to be bolder with his alphas than he has to be. Originally, I was thinking and looking to Energumene vs Shishkin as symbolic that he is getting braver but his comments about CPS suggests the Ricci horse is still the alpha in his eyes. I just agree with you that WPM will revert to type. We shall see soon enough.

Personally, I'd love to see Bob vs GDC. Yes I do have AP bets on both but money isn't everything! I think this is the clash of the week, along with the Supreme race and perhaps the NH Chase too. Some might say Champion Chase and Gold Cup but novices always get myself excited!

What do you mean by revert to type ?
When has Mullins ever really ducked a challenge, and not been bold ?

It's only because he has so much ammunition and options that they are sometimes split.

Apart from Quevega vs Big Bucks I can't think of any other occasions, and even that was a difficult one as once she'd won 2 or 3 it would have been a tough ask to go up against Big Bucks on her first run of the season. And Ruby Walsh would have been a big factor in this also.
And Big Bucks could always have come over to Punchestown for the grade 1 against the boys over 3 miles she won 4 times (should have been 5 ) if he wanted.

With regards CPS, this is a common thing for Mullins to do - i.e favour his older horses with multiple grade 1's under their belts.
He said similar about Hurricane Fly vs Faugheen.
There are other examples.
It's part sentiment and part that they're proven performers.
Although the emphasis in this situation regards CPS v Energumene was surprising, I'll admit.

[harchibald]

Yes i agree with you on the novice races giantcauseway - i think its the potential of the novices to improve and the difficulty comparing irish and uk form.

Bob vs Gallopin would be some race and the supreme looks a gem this year