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I think whilst Paddy do usually have info first, surely they are playing games here.
An agenda has been set by a story which included Ruby - they've pounced on this, either way now, they win. He goes RSA and all the reactive bets on the turners are losers (don't believe they are NRNB yet) or if he switches for whatever reason, they won't have to pay out some hefty doubles/trebles.
It's a gamble for them which one way or another will pay off.
I was initially thinking along similar lines - but surely most who are price sensitive enough to spot their cuts here would be backing him in the Turners elsewhere at a better price - meaning they don’t see the benefit?
Likewise people now looking at Jungle Boogie for RSA - can get a better price elsewhere (even with NRNB) - so surely Paddies wouldn’t see more bets on him…
I think whilst Paddy do usually have info first, surely they are playing games here.
An agenda has been set by a story which included Ruby - they've pounced on this, either way now, they win. He goes RSA and all the reactive bets on the turners are losers (don't believe they are NRNB yet) or if he switches for whatever reason, they won't have to pay out some hefty doubles/trebles.
It's a gamble for them which one way or another will pay off.
Very good point. PP are not NRNB yet, and have given no sign when they are going so. After last year where bookmakers took a hit from AP punters, it would not be that much of a surprise for some to be trying to put out such enticements, and more so now, where there is more AP activity, so close to the event, than there would have been before Christmas.
Everything adds to GDC going to the BANC and if he's successful, goes most likely into short favourite for next year's Gold Cup, unless this year's Gold Cup has a very very convincing winner. It fits in with Willie's history to build up his novices in distance, the best staying one running in the best staying novice chase at the Festival.
I don't even think we'd be having this debate if he was able to get two runs into him by Christmas. Hopefully post race at the weekend the great man, or his son, will put everyone at ease no doubt with a comment such as 'staying distances suit this fella, not middle distances'. He's certain to be asked after this weekend's race.
Hopefully post race at the weekend the great man, or his son, will put everyone at ease no doubt with a comment such as 'staying distances suit this fella, not middle distances'. He's certain to be asked after this weekend's race.
He'll probably say something like 'We know he gets three miles, but there might not be a need to further with him for now. We'll leave our options open and decide closer to the time.'
I was initially thinking along similar lines - but surely most who are price sensitive enough to spot their cuts here would be backing him in the Turners elsewhere at a better price - meaning they don’t see the benefit?
Likewise people now looking at Jungle Boogie for RSA - can get a better price elsewhere (even with NRNB) - so surely Paddies wouldn’t see more bets on him…
Perhaps, but this is paddy power remember, as someone on here said, they cut Ferny hollow 24hrs before he was ruled out..
"He did everything right and galloped away through the line and beyond it. He looks a very exciting horse, especially going over a trip" Willie's said after his chase debut. Slim chance WPM will categorically name check the RSA, he'll keep all options open.
There was a similar pattern here with Mr Stattler, turns out he's off to his original target not where the odds flip flopped.
Same ownership as Burning Victory. Shame they are not owned by CPS, we might get some clarity on both.
I respect their right to decide where their horses go, but I hope for racing's sake, it is to the premier novices trial for the Gold Cup. Jump racing needs stars to latch onto year on year, and please god, GDC, really looks another one.
One thing that has suddenly alarmed me - According to Gaultstats, French breds are 0-36 in the last 15 years. I know WIllie puts stock in breeding but he probably isn't reading Gaultstats, is he?
Willie doesn't care for stats, he's one of the biggest breakers of trends and stats out there. Allaho and Al Boum Photo both ran nice races in the RSA. It doesn't put me off, a French bred will win this race soon.
It's a good site Gaultstats....there is a bit on Willie Mullins which is worth a read. This is a quote taken from his site.
My Willie Mullins stat - 'If there is a rock solid roadblock stat that says the Willie Mullins runner can't win, then seriously consider the Willie Mullins runner.'
Willie doesn't care for stats, he's one of the biggest breakers of trends and stats out there. Allaho and Al Boum Photo both ran nice races in the RSA. It doesn't put me off, a French bred will win this race soon.
It's a good site Gaultstats....there is a bit on Willie Mullins which is worth a read. This is a quote taken from his site.
My Willie Mullins stat - 'If there is a rock solid roadblock stat that says the Willie Mullins runner can't win, then seriously consider the Willie Mullins runner.'
Mark you this, Bassanio, The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose.
Looks like a lot of the rethinking on targets on Mullins' Novice chasers could have stemmed from this; Ruby Walsh piece in Paddy Power:
I’ll be with GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. A lot depends on what he does at the Dublin Racing Festival on Sunday and how he jumps. If he were to put in another spectacular performance like he did at Christmas then I can see Willie Mullins sticking to the shorter trip where speed and jumping is more important.
“Galopin Des Champs won the Martin Pipe Hurdle last year at Cheltenham and he’s probably in everyone’s minds as a three-miler, because he won last season’s Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle at Punchestown. However, that that was probably more to do with Willie dividing and conquering, as he already had Gaillard Du Mesnil for the 2m 4f option with Bob Olinger not running there.
“We never saw Galopin Des Champs as an out-and-out three miler. We know he stays but jumping looks to be his biggest attribute and I’d be surprised if Willie doesn’t utilise that asset. I don’t think he’d have a jumping advantage on Bravemansgame, but he could on Bob Olinger.
“Bob Olinger’s jumping is very safe, which is why he’s potentially a Gold Cup horse in the future, and he could be vulnerable at this trip against something like Galopin Des Champs with the undulations of Cheltenham and where the fences are positioned. If he’s in any doubt he’ll take the safe option, which is perfectly fine but it does cost you energy and time.
“With Ferny Hollow out of the Arkle, Blue Lord is more likely to stay at two miles. He ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year and his two runs this year have both been at that distance.
“Saint Sam and Haut En Couleurs both won beginners chases around the Christmas period and how they fare at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend will clear the waters for Cheltenham. It looks like Capodanno will step up in trip and Willie hinted that Sunday’s Naas winner Stattler, will run in the National Hunt Chase.
“Frank Hickey’s favourite horse, Jungle Boogie, is a little bit betwixt and between, but I’d be surprised if he were to come down in trip for the Arkle. I don’t think his jumping was as strong as the others so going up in trip might suit him better.”
The thing I find most interesting about it is that Ruby talks about getting Bob beat, whereas I think we all think of Mullins as putting his horses in their easiest possible races to win. The Turners (for me) clearly isn't the easiest possible race for GDC to win, but he is the best possible chance of getting Bob beat I'd say.
From the price changes and the article above, you could assume the following targets (although this will be just one line of thinking of many, and could change any time I guess):
Arkle - Blue Lord
Haut En Coloers/Saint Sam
Turners - GDC
Haut En Couleurs/Saint Sam
RSA - Capodanno
Jungle Boogie
NHC - Stattler
We've known for a while, and archie who has had close links with the yard for a few years has confirmed this multiple times, but Mullins runs his horses in the races they have the best chance of winning, so the question running through my mind is how can re-routing GDC to the Turners for a match with Bob Olinger improve his chance of winning ?
Common sense says Bob Olinger to Turners and GDC to here surely....
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