2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Istabraq]

The fact we’re still the wrong side of DRF is why I’m sceptical on these moves, I do think bookies play plenty of games trying go set hares running, accounting corrections and just old fashioned pushes drumming up business.
I doubt many decisions have been made by trainers yet, next weekend will help them make their minds up, and of course there’ll be plenty of microphones shoved under chins for us all to hear, significant market moves probably take on greater significance post DRF, but I could easily be wrong…

[Big Bucks]

They (PP) have just cut DD for the Ballymore to 4/1 from 6/1, and pushed him out to 4/1 in the Supreme. Looks like GDC has been cut for Turners as well to 5/2 from 3/1, and Bob lengthened slightly to 5/4 from 11/10. Caveat - I’ve no idea from looking at the app when this happened?

Aren’t Paddy one of the first to hear about Mullins’ targets, or is this a rumour? I hasten to say, I’ve no inside info so don’t act based on this post. I’ve got a lot invested in GDC RSA so feeling somewhat concerned…

Shitting it now with GDC! Really think Turners is the target and someone knows something, stable money or PP in the know is all my brain is telling me!

[Lobos]

Agree with Ista. No decision about anything will be made yet. Bookies just balancing their books and trying to get some 'free' money in to boost the coffers. They know that most punters are strong on GDC for the RSA and also know that they'll panic and try and cover on any bit of Chinese whispers.

[FinalFurlong91]

Willie will sit down on the day of entries and see GDC has a choice of taking on Bob olinger or Bravemansgame

He will then run him in the race he has the best chance of winning which will be the one that doesn't have Bob olinger in it

[SeanRock]

Probably the same trader that slashed Ferny for the open company 2m grade 1 at the DRF 24 hours before he was ruled out for the season.

[Milbear0]

Willie will sit down on the day of entries and see GDC has a choice of taking on Bob olinger or Bravemansgame

He will then run him in the race he has the best chance of winning which will be the one that doesn't have Bob olinger in it

As mentioned before, he want s to win the race he doesn’t care what with. If he thinks Capo has BMG covered in the RSA he may well feel like it’s a fair dart to take on BobO with GDC.

[FinalFurlong91]

As mentioned before, he want s to win the race he doesn’t care what with. If he thinks Capo has BMG covered in the RSA he may well feel like it’s a fair dart to take on BobO with GDC.

If GDC is his best horse i just cant see that happening

The owners wouldnt be very happy if they finished 2nd to Bob when they couldve run in an easier race

[Exar Essay]

Could this all be Ferny related? Willie shuffling the deck or someone thinking he is? Maybe one of his others originally heading here is now going for the Arkle. Hell, maybe Willie was sending Ferny here for a Bob rematch?

I still think GDC ends up in the RSA. Willie’s a creature of habit and his Punchestown 3m hurdle top performer nearly always heads here … thanks, SW.

Even factoring in price contractions, if PP had the heads up that GDC goes here, surely he’d be far closer to his NRNB price? Like 7/4 or summat? 5/2 is a bit no mans land.

[charlie]

GDC won't go anywhere near the Turners IMO. Willie has GDC and Stattler for the RSA, with not much else. The latter looks almost certain to be NHC bound, so GDC is his runner here. If something happens to BO Willie's 4th, 5th and 6th in the betting would become 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite for the Turners. He could fire more than a few decent bullets there as he has historically in the past. Stepping GDC up to 3m in a G1 over hurdles was a statement of intent as to what Willie thinks he is, and he blew them away and devoured 3m. Connections will want a GC horse and this is a more recognised trial, not the Turners. The RSA doesn't actually look that strong when you take out all the non runners and loads was made about how hard he hit the line LTO. Each point on their own are fair but collectively form a very strong picture as to why this makes massive sense

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

GDC won't go anywhere near the Turners IMO. Willie has GDC and Stattler for the RSA, with not much else. The latter looks almost certain to be NHC bound, so GDC is his runner here. If something happens to BO Willie's 4th, 5th and 6th in the betting would become 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite for the Turners. He could fire more than a few decent bullets there as he has historically in the past. Stepping GDC up to 3m in a G1 over hurdles was a statement of intent as to what Willie thinks he is, and he blew them away and devoured 3m. Connections will want a GC horse and this is a more recognised trial, not the Turners. The RSA doesn't actually look that strong when you take out all the non runners and loads was made about how hard he hit the line LTO. Each point on their own are fair but collectively form a very strong picture as to why this makes massive sense

Hi Charlie - Where would you fit in Capodanno and Ciel De Neige? I would have thought Capodanno would head for the RSA and Ciel De Neige possibly Turners or Handicap.

[charlie]

GDC won't go anywhere near the Turners IMO. Willie has GDC and Stattler for the RSA, with not much else. The latter looks almost certain to be NHC bound, so GDC is his runner here. If something happens to BO Willie's 4th, 5th and 6th in the betting would become 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite for the Turners. He could fire more than a few decent bullets there as he has historically in the past. Stepping GDC up to 3m in a G1 over hurdles was a statement of intent as to what Willie thinks he is, and he blew them away and devoured 3m. Connections will want a GC horse and this is a more recognised trial, not the Turners. The RSA doesn't actually look that strong when you take out all the non runners and loads was made about how hard he hit the line LTO. Each point on their own are fair but collectively form a very strong picture as to why this makes massive sense

I'd also add that the majority of owners, trainers and punters would place more significance on an RSA winner with a view to the future than winning the Turners. IMO it would be a big call for Willie to see GDC post a brilliant effort over 3m LTO over hurdles to then stick to 2m5f when so much has been made about how much he had left when he hit the line on chase debut.

[charlie]

Hi Charlie - Where would you fit in Capodanno and Ciel De Neige? I would have thought Capodanno would head for the RSA and Ciel De Neige possibly Turners or Handicap.

I think Ciel De Neige will find himself in no mans land for a bit. Not quite good enough for G1's and punished to the hilt by the handicapper which makes winning handicaps extremely tough. Capodanno is far tougher to weigh up and perhaps a horse my OP dismisses prematurely. What puts me off if Willie doesnt waste bullets and if he thinks GDC is as good as we all think he is, I doubt he'd send them both.

[Liverpoolchamp]

Out to 2/1 for this now GDC!! …..my worst fears are about to become reality I think! I’ll destroy my book completely if he swerved this and goes up against Bob!

[Istabraq]

Out to 2/1 for this now GDC!! …..my worst fears are about to become reality I think! I’ll destroy my book completely if he swerved this and goes up against Bob!

He is 3 - 3.2 on betfair.
He was 4 to lay last night which did concern me but seems have corrected now…

[Silverbirch]

I think whilst Paddy do usually have info first, surely they are playing games here.

An agenda has been set by a story which included Ruby - they've pounced on this, either way now, they win. He goes RSA and all the reactive bets on the turners are losers (don't believe they are NRNB yet) or if he switches for whatever reason, they won't have to pay out some hefty doubles/trebles.
It's a gamble for them which one way or another will pay off.